Posted on 12/13/2017 12:25:07 PM PST by Kaslin
A new national survey conducted by Marist College's polling operation shows that a 52 percent majority of US voters believe the Republican tax reform proposal will negatively impact their personal financial situation. Less than one-in-three respondents think they'll benefit. This overwhelmingly inaccurate perception represents the fruit of Democrats' media-aided labor over recent weeks, as they've flooded the national debate with factually false assertions and ludicrous hysteria. The truth, as we've relayed on numerous occasions, is that nonpartisan analyses of the plan have concluded that on average, every income group will receive a tax cut -- including, if not especially, the middle class. I have not shied away from conceding potential negative outcomes for certain taxpayers, nor have I dismissed deficit-related concerns; the fact remains, however, that the exceedingly lopsided majority of taxpayers will see their tax burdens lowered and after-tax incomes rise under the Republican bill. The green dots below represent middle class households currently taking the standard deduction that will see a tax reduction (the red dots are the very rare exceptions):
NYT editors, today: GOP tax reform doesn't help the middle class.
NYT news analysis, yesterday: Virtually every single middle-income taxpayer who takes the standard deduction (70%! of filers) will get a tax cut, as will a substantial majority of those who itemize. pic.twitter.com/PuOhZcXzLY— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 29, 2017
Roughly 70 percent of filers already take the standard deduction (a number expected to expand), which is set to approximately double under the legislation. Virtually every single one of these people would emerge as net winners. And according to a New York Times analysis, a substantial majority of middle income filers who itemize (rather than taking the standard deduction) would also see their tax bill decrease. As we explained yesterday, most of the scare-mongering talking points employed by Democrats to achieve the polling results mentioned above -- if not entirely made up -- are rooted in cherry-picked information and misrepresentation. Only a small sliver of taxpayers (in the ballpark of ten percent) might expect to see their tax bill rise due to tax reform, and those are disproportionately wealthier itemizers who live in high-tax blue states. Here's the political question Republicans need to ask themselves: Will real facts and empirical reality regain the high ground once Americans actually, you know, file their post-reform taxes? If so, the vast majority of taxpayers will realize that Democrats were lying to them. Conservative policy wonk and activist Phil Kerpen is urging people to calculate their own tax scenario using this online tool:
A political strategy completely at odds with reality seems unlikely to end well. Are you going to believe Dems/media or your lying paycheck? https://t.co/2L1M1U05OH— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) December 12, 2017
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation also ran the numbers on how a wide array of American families would fare under reform, concluding that every household they profiled came out ahead:
Nonpartisan Tax Foundation analysis of Senate tax bill: "Our results indicate a reduction in tax liability for every scenario we modeled, with some of the largest cuts accruing to moderate-income families with children." Lower taxes & higher post-tax income across the board... pic.twitter.com/SPoRFBAYfF— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 28, 2017
The follow-up question for Republicans is, even if a massive supermajority of Americans do experience tax relief, will the media and Democrats try to drown out those stories by showcasing individual negative cases? The GOP should count on it, and develop an aggressive messaging strategy to highlight the countless winners under reform, constantly beating the drum about how Democrats' (literally) apocalyptic predictions were embarrassingly wrong. Unlike Obamacare, which spat out significantly more losers than winners after everyone was promised utopia, many, many more taxpayers will benefit from the Republican plan than will feel a setback -- to say nothing of independent projections of faster economic growth and the creation of nearly one million new full-time jobs. Meanwhile, here's a late-breaking detail about the compromise framework that has reportedly been reached ahead of the now-ongoing conference committee's work:
GOP final tax bill details, per two sources briefed:
* 21% corporate rate
* 37% top individual rate
* 20% pass-through deduction
* $750k for mortgage interest— Ylan Q. Mui (@ylanmui) December 12, 2017
The highest tax bracket will receive a small rate cut after all (the House bill didn't include a rate cut at the top), and the corporate tax cut was scaled back by one percentage point. Is the revenue attached to that slight uptick in the proposed corporate rate being put to the best use, policy-wise or politically? Ramesh Ponnuru says no, and I'm inclined to agree (as is Marco Rubio, incidentally):
So that 20% corporate tax rate turned out not be the non-negotiable line in the sand we were told it was. https://t.co/L43jjkyNsl— Ramesh Ponnuru (@RameshPonnuru) December 12, 2017
I'll leave you with a strong editorial in favor of reform, which posits that once tax reform is implemented and Americans see the results, liberal myths "will be demolished by reality." Also, read this report about economic bullishness among American manufacturers in anticipation of pro-growth reform. Quote: "63 percent of [manufacturing] CEOs said business tax reform would encourage capital spending and more than half said they would expand their businesses."
You also need to retirees who live in high property tax states, like TX and FL. Those people are going to see higher federal tax bills unless they are generating a high level of income in retirement.
The GOP can’t get their message out because they are a herd of cats. Way too much freelancing with a GOP POTUS. Dems ALWAYS stay on message. Always.
“I agree with you on everything you said.”
Plus these numbers into any calculator:
$140k per year
Single
$19,200 annual mortgage interest
$4,800 annual State Income tax
$4,800 annual Property tax
There’s AT LEAST 1 million of those folks in each of CA, NY and NJ. And there’s at least 30 Republican House members from those 3 states alone that are likely to be unelected over it.
Another scenario: Run the number at nearly any income level for a family with 4 or 5 kids.
I can testify, with certainty, my taxes will go up substantially.
I’ve used all the tools people here have posted. And I’ve run my own numbers.
My taxes go up.
Anyone who says they won’t is either, at best disingenuous, or at worst, a liar.
*************************
If, as most Democrats do, you live in a high tax state and make a lot of money, your taxes may indeed go up. But that’s because people in low tax states are now subsidizing people in high tax states. Blame your high tax state, not the new tax bill.
We are in the same boat...have used every calculator available and come out paying more, to varying degrees.
And yes, we live in a high tax blue state (Washington) but since my husband is a firefighter and I am a stay at home mom, I find it hard to believe that anyone would classify us as “high-income”).
The loss of the personal exemption is what is killing us. We itemize, because of charitable contributions, property taxes, and local sales taxes. Those three things together generally run about $22-24K on a $90K income - which was then reduced by another $8K+ for two personal exemptions. So, we will no longer have to take the time to fill out the Schedule A but we will now owe around $2-3K more in taxes, which is pretty significant to us!
They’ll know the truth when they fill out their tax returns.
And Alabamans believe Moore is a pedophile.
” But that’s because people in low tax states are now subsidizing people in high tax states.”
That’s a lie.
Unless of course you believe single people are subsidizing the married with children, and the renter is subsidizing the homeowner.
It’s not a zero sum game.
Just because person A pays less does not necessarily mean person B pays more. Especially with a 20% + annual deficit.
In fact, I’d wager I pay more in Federal Income Tax than at least 90% of people on FR. Please explain the flow of money that shows they are subsidizing me.
FWIW, I saw a report of a family of seven who filed their federal tax form and actually received more moneys back in refund than what they had actually paid in payroll taxes.
Are you amused by them continuing to send billions of dollars worth of checks to illegal aliens?
GOP were a ‘herd of cats’ LOOOOOOONG before Trump was POTUS.
They’re the Gang Who Couldn’t Shoot Straight
The Confederacy of Dunces
Jokes, all of them.
“actually received more moneys back in refund than what they had actually paid in payroll taxes”
That happens in every state with the Child Tax Credit and its bastard child, the EITC.
Want REAL tax reform? Demand the repeal of the income tax and replace it with the national sales tax.
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That is a misuse of “propaganda”. It is just that Dems have done a better job explaining the provisions, and GOP is trying to pull a fast one: Keep the same revenue flowing into government, switch around who gets stick to pay for it (shell game), and yes, raise a lot of middle class peoples’ taxes.
Wouldn’t it be nice if Ryan would stand in the house with a sign saying “Democrats are liars!”
“Keep the same revenue flowing into government, switch around who gets stick to pay for it (shell game), and yes, raise a lot of middle class peoples’ taxes.”
—
Something like “robbing Peter to pay Paul”.
How is that different from ...I particular get amusement from the “my taxes are going down”, even though we don’t have a final Bill. 🤡
I can't be certain, but I think it would raise mine too. Most of my income is from investments (stocks, bonds, real estate).
But, I would be ok with that (within reason) if I knew for sure it was helping most working people... but I'm not certain on that either.
Paladin, dude mariner just like, you know, is not a groovy dude, dude. He’s got that BIG drug skeleton like, in his closet dude. He could escape if, like you know, he’d take some pain meds. Yea man, like that’s his real hang-up.
Like, what you said man: turn on, tune
in, and like drop out man . . . .
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