Propaganda Works: Majority of Americans Now Believe the GOP Bill Will Raise Their Taxes.

Townhall.com ^ | December 13, 2017 | Guy Benson

[Kaslin]

A new national survey conducted by Marist College's polling operation shows that a 52 percent majority of US voters believe the Republican tax reform proposal will negatively impact their personal financial situation.  Less than one-in-three respondents think they'll benefit.  This overwhelmingly inaccurate perception represents the fruit of Democrats' media-aided labor over recent weeks, as they've flooded the national debate with factually false assertions and ludicrous hysteria.  The truth, as we've relayed on numerous occasions, is that nonpartisan analyses of the plan have concluded that on average, every income group will receive a tax cut -- including, if not especially, the middle class.  I have not shied away from conceding potential negative outcomes for certain taxpayers, nor have I dismissed deficit-related concerns; the fact remains, however, that the exceedingly lopsided majority of taxpayers will see their tax burdens lowered and after-tax incomes rise under the Republican bill.  The green dots below represent middle class households currently taking the standard deduction that will see a tax reduction (the red dots are the very rare exceptions):

NYT editors, today: GOP tax reform doesn't help the middle class.

NYT news analysis, yesterday: Virtually every single middle-income taxpayer who takes the standard deduction (70%! of filers) will get a tax cut, as will a substantial majority of those who itemize. pic.twitter.com/PuOhZcXzLY— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 29, 2017

Roughly 70 percent of filers already take the standard deduction (a number expected to expand), which is set to approximately double under the legislation.  Virtually every single one of these people would emerge as net winners.  And according to a New York Times analysis, a substantial majority of middle income filers who itemize (rather than taking the standard deduction) would also see their tax bill decrease.  As we explained yesterday, most of the scare-mongering talking points employed by Democrats to achieve the polling results mentioned above -- if not entirely made up -- are rooted in cherry-picked information and misrepresentation.  Only a small sliver of taxpayers (in the ballpark of ten percent) might expect to see their tax bill rise due to tax reform, and those are disproportionately wealthier itemizers who live in high-tax blue states.  Here's the political question Republicans need to ask themselves: Will real facts and empirical reality regain the high ground once Americans actually, you know, file their post-reform taxes?  If so, the vast majority of taxpayers will realize that Democrats were lying to them.  Conservative policy wonk and activist Phil Kerpen is urging people to calculate their own tax scenario using this online tool:

A political strategy completely at odds with reality seems unlikely to end well. Are you going to believe Dems/media or your lying paycheck? https://t.co/2L1M1U05OH— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) December 12, 2017

The nonpartisan Tax Foundation also ran the numbers on how a wide array of American families would fare under reform, concluding that every household they profiled came out ahead:

Nonpartisan Tax Foundation analysis of Senate tax bill: "Our results indicate a reduction in tax liability for every scenario we modeled, with some of the largest cuts accruing to moderate-income families with children." Lower taxes & higher post-tax income across the board... pic.twitter.com/SPoRFBAYfF— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 28, 2017

The follow-up question for Republicans is, even if a massive supermajority of Americans do experience tax relief, will the media and Democrats try to drown out those stories by showcasing individual negative cases?  The GOP should count on it, and develop an aggressive messaging strategy to highlight the countless winners under reform, constantly beating the drum about how Democrats' (literally) apocalyptic predictions were embarrassingly wrong. Unlike Obamacare, which spat out significantly more losers than winners after everyone was promised utopia, many, many more taxpayers will benefit from the Republican plan than will feel a setback -- to say nothing of independent projections of faster economic growth and the creation of nearly one million new full-time jobs.  Meanwhile, here's a late-breaking detail about the compromise framework that has reportedly been reached ahead of the now-ongoing conference committee's work:

GOP final tax bill details, per two sources briefed:
* 21% corporate rate
* 37% top individual rate
* 20% pass-through deduction
* $750k for mortgage interest— Ylan Q. Mui (@ylanmui) December 12, 2017

The highest tax bracket will receive a small rate cut after all (the House bill didn't include a rate cut at the top), and the corporate tax cut was scaled back by one percentage point.  Is the revenue attached to that slight uptick in the proposed corporate rate being put to the best use, policy-wise or politically?  Ramesh Ponnuru says no, and I'm inclined to agree (as is Marco Rubio, incidentally):

So that 20% corporate tax rate turned out not be the non-negotiable line in the sand we were told it was. https://t.co/L43jjkyNsl— Ramesh Ponnuru (@RameshPonnuru) December 12, 2017

I'll leave you with a strong editorial in favor of reform, which posits that once tax reform is implemented and Americans see the results, liberal myths "will be demolished by reality."  Also, read this report about economic bullishness among American manufacturers in anticipation of pro-growth reform.  Quote: "63 percent of [manufacturing] CEOs said business tax reform would encourage capital spending and more than half said they would expand their businesses."

[Hot Tabasco]

I want the same goddamned deductions that corporations can take

Then hire some people, provide them with healthcare, Workers Comp benefits, extended disability benefits and a pension plan. Then pay their payroll taxes and state unemployment taxes and you will get your Christmas wish! LOL!

And I didn't even mention the property taxes on the huge corporation you intend to create nor the cost involved in the environmental studies required on the property you intend to build on............LOL!

[rbmillerjr]

"How is that different from ...I particular get amusement from the “my taxes are going down”, even though we don’t have a final Bill. 🤡 ",,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ....................A little common sense and a pinch of logical thinking, mixed with reading about the two bills would lead most to realize that both plans cut tax rates and both plans increase child tax credits. What the bills disagreed upon was the state and local tax issue. What key Senators got for their vote was a look at that issue. So, that is up in the air. But chicken littles are screaming "higher taxes", while having no clue about how that issue will be resolved. It may be that they might be correct, in the end. But at this point the crying about it is inaccurate noise leading to the majority of people false believing their taxes are going up. In reality, this is not the case, even if SALT are no longer deductible.

[Kaslin]

What do you mean they don't pay income taxes, besides Social Security taxes, (which FICA is) and Medicare.

You still pay for medicare once you are on social security because it gets deducted from your Social security check

[Vermont Lt]

I mean most workers in the country do not pay income tax.

It’s actually pretty simple. If you receive SS, you are not usually in the workforce.

[rbmillerjr]

We don’t have a final bill.

“But that’s not stopping you from defending it”

Your damn right.

The Tax Foundation states that even as written on the Senate version, the vast majority of middle class Americans will get fairly large tax cuts, amounting to about $180-220 per month added to their wallets.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks Kaslin.

[CatOwner]

So, how do you label a couple expected to earn $70k with one on social security (which at this income level is mostly taxed), one with a modest non-union pension, and interest income?

Not counting the deduction for state income taxes (which wouldn't be much any because California doesn't tax SS yet!), we're looking at $50-75 less each month. For a couple on fixed income sources, this is not trivial.

[Kaslin]

Because most of those on SS are usually senior citizen as I am one of them.

[rbmillerjr]

Cat, I don’t know you specific situation, but the largest percentage tax rate cuts are from people making 75k and lower - and 100K and lower.

[CatOwner]

We fall into a group of retirees who live in a high property tax state (CA, NY, TX, FL, etc.) who also have modest to extreme medical costs. In our case, we're looking at a touch over $10k in just the premiums (one of us is under 65 and doesn't qualify for ACA subsidies - in that respect, I am grateful we've avoided signing up for ACA so far). Just the property taxes and medical costs beyond the AGI threshold would create an itemized deduction under the current tax system.

With the proposed plans, the standard deduction would eliminate itemizing for most seniors in this group. Along with the removal of the personal exemptions, this results in higher federal taxes for us, even with the lower tax rates.

If the wanted true tax reform, they should have implemented a flat tax.

[Intolerant in NJ]

For a family of four, they raise the standard deduction from $12,000 to $24,000 and then take $16,200 of it back by eliminating the personal exemption so your taxable income INCREASES by $4200. Large families are hit even harder. A family of 6 would have their taxable income increased by $12,300...not quite - the new House bill raises the child tax CREDIT from $1000 to $1600, and the Senate bill from $1000 to $2000 - that's an additional $600 or $1000 taken directly from the tax owed - not the income on which that tax is computed - for each kid - a family of four (2 children) with around $80k in taxable income to report would get to take about $8k off in exemptions for the 2 kids and pay taxes on about $72k at the marginal rate of 15% under the current system - about $9200 - under the proposed system more or less, they'd pay on the whole $80k because they couldn't take the exemptions for the kids at the new 12% rate, owing about $9000, and then get to take the increased (differential) credit of at least $600 per kid - in comparison they'd end up owing about $7800 - quite a reduction all else being equal.......

[Rome2000]

This bill strips away deductions from W-2 working Americans who ACTUALLY ALREADY PAY TAXES every year instead of paying zero or getting free money from the IRS, but leaves the deductions in place for corporations.

This is fundamentally unfair and a bigger scam than Obamacare, as anyone getting a tiny tax cut now will lose it in a few years when the rates are jacked up.

Homeowners with children and mortgages will pay more taxes, because their taxable income will be higher due to the loss of the deductions.

This is true even in States that don’t have State and Local income taxes.

[Vermont Lt]

I’m not sure where you are diverging from what I was saying?

[Intolerant in NJ]

Starting figure should have been $75k taxable income, not $80k, although results are about the same....

[GOPJ]

Trump invented ways over the media, under the media and around their BS. They still haven’t figured him out.

[GOPJ]

That’s it, mostly. It’s also hard to ‘sell things to the general public’ when even our own leadership FAILS miserably at presenting and fighting for OUR causes, legislation, candidates, etc. The propagandists come in all stripes. Just ask Midge & The RINOs.

You're so right on this... our guys have left us down... they fail us.

[Sequoyah101]

And when they go down the fools won’t even notice.

Most people we totally stupid when it comes to taxes. Because of that and that most pay nothing they don’t deserve to be citizens or vote

[WilliamIII]

It’s also raising taxes on millions of people. More “read my lips” tax raising

[Blood of Tyrants]

Yea, I refigured my numbers: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3613329/posts?page=5#5

[Kickass Conservative]

>>>When retirees in high property tax states (CA, NY, TX, FL, etc.)<<<

CA isn’t a high Property Tax State. It is a high cost of living State, especially along the Coast. If you are a Retiree with a modest Income who has your Home paid off, CA is the place to be of you can stand the Liberal Politics. It also has the best Weather in the Country.

Proposition 13 restricts Property Taxes to 1% of Assessed Value in CA which can only rise 2% a year. The only added costs are for any Voter approved Bond indebtedness which pushes our Property Tax to 1.25% of Assessed Value.

For instance, we bought our Home in 1991 for about $240,000. Our Property Taxes were $2,500 a year. Now, 16 Years later our Home is worth about $750,000 and our Property Taxes are $3,600.

The State of NY has high Income Taxes and high Property Taxes and is bleeding Residents. All our Relatives left there years ago and ended up in FL.

My understanding is TX is you get more House for your Money, but the Property Taxes are outrageous. Not a good place to be if you are a Retiree.

I have no idea what the situation is in FL outside of Watching Beachfront Bargain Hunt on HGTV. They never mention Property Taxes or Flood Insurance costs though.