I know you have your own way of making projections but I would quibble with your numbers.
While +4 would give us 55, tying our modern high held 3 times, 1983-84, 1997-2000 (death of Paul Coverall reduced it to 54) and 2005-2006, given the LARGE amount of ripe targets, a net of 4 would be underwhelming. WV, MO, ND, MT, IN, OH are 6 States Trump won comfortably with rat Senators up, you’d like to get all those, for a start and toss in Florida and hopefully PA, maybe the MN special or MI or WS or don’t write off ME or even VA or NJ if Menendez is the rat candidate. Lose only Nevada, or nothing. We won’t get the straight flush and win all the ones we should, but I really hope for more than 4. Given the larger number of GOP states would should have a good Senate edge and that that needs to start manifesting itself, it should never be 51-49. Step one is CANDIDATE RECRUITMENT. So of those races have strong people in, some do not.
As for the House, I expect a net loss certainly, though a small one. We do not have so many House targets, if we have such a good year as to net 8, then I would imagine the Senate gain would be much larger than 4.
Spot on, amigo!
These states, that Trump won, have democrat senators, running for re-election, who barely won in 2012: WI, MT, MO, IN, OH, and PA. I think that Republicans will win five of those six races, but I don’t know which five. A Democrat will win in Nevada.
In the House, Republicans will gain seats in Illinois’ 10th District and Nevada’s 3rd and 4th Districts. I don’t know the other five districts where they’ll gain seats because there are about 400 other districts that I haven’t researched, yet.
Elise in NY has a strong primary opponent
The open NH seat will be a blast
Rural stuff is a awesome