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As for the House, I expect a net loss certainly, though a small one. We do not have so many House targets, if we have such a good year as to net 8, then I would imagine the Senate gain would be much larger than 4.

I certainly hope so, but it seems like every time I turn around someone is peddling a "Democrats have a double digit point lead in the generic congressional preference poll" and touting a coming "blue wave." I can't even go around certain political twitter feeds anymore since I run into a posting like this almost every day.

Is there a more useless indicator than the generic ballot?

There are probably several actually but.....

Looking at the current RCP average, it’s terrible. But it’s also all polls with registered voters for some reason, (too early for likely voters?)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Registered voters are not worth a bucket of pee

In 2018 R’s outdid the RCP average (of final polls with likely voters) by 1.7 (margin) and in 2014 outdid it by 3.3.

In 2012 we under-performed the poll average by 1.4%, losing the popular vote to the rats but easily keeping the majority just the same.

A main problem is it’s measuring the US House popular vote, which is of limited relevance with all the safe seats and HEAVILY rat seats, many of which will be uncontested or undercontested.

If we trail by a boatload in likely voter polls in late summer 2018, I’ll worry.

In many House special elections so far while they over-performed (but still LOST) races that flew under the radar, they lost the one they went all in to win, and at best barely won the election day voting in the Montana race where our candidate went Rambo on some dude days before the election (losing decisively because of large early voting) and only managed to baaaarely win this Senate election cause our dude was accused of sex stuff AND shot off his mouth with dumb stuff. The Alabama dems may as well have disbanded if they lost that.

Add in a couple “blue’ state elections in NJ and VA and a few rat gains in Mayoral Races (none of the towns voted for Trump, I don’t think) and in an ultla low turnout state legislative specials, those in Oklahoma tinged by GOP scandals and an unpopular Governor, and overall I have yet to anything that makes me panic about a “rat wave”. I don’t think they’ll put enough House seats in play.