Is there a more useless indicator than the generic ballot?
There are probably several actually but.....
Looking at the current RCP average, it’s terrible. But it’s also all polls with registered voters for some reason, (too early for likely voters?)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
Registered voters are not worth a bucket of pee
In 2018 R’s outdid the RCP average (of final polls with likely voters) by 1.7 (margin) and in 2014 outdid it by 3.3.
In 2012 we under-performed the poll average by 1.4%, losing the popular vote to the rats but easily keeping the majority just the same.
A main problem is it’s measuring the US House popular vote, which is of limited relevance with all the safe seats and HEAVILY rat seats, many of which will be uncontested or undercontested.
If we trail by a boatload in likely voter polls in late summer 2018, I’ll worry.
In many House special elections so far while they over-performed (but still LOST) races that flew under the radar, they lost the one they went all in to win, and at best barely won the election day voting in the Montana race where our candidate went Rambo on some dude days before the election (losing decisively because of large early voting) and only managed to baaaarely win this Senate election cause our dude was accused of sex stuff AND shot off his mouth with dumb stuff. The Alabama dems may as well have disbanded if they lost that.
Add in a couple “blue’ state elections in NJ and VA and a few rat gains in Mayoral Races (none of the towns voted for Trump, I don’t think) and in an ultla low turnout state legislative specials, those in Oklahoma tinged by GOP scandals and an unpopular Governor, and overall I have yet to anything that makes me panic about a “rat wave”. I don’t think they’ll put enough House seats in play.
Keep in mind my latest round of registered voter changes in about 8 battleground states show AZ with Rs both absolutely and net gains (+29k and +14) over Ds; PA still showing big R net gains (+84k-—down from two months ago when it was 104k, but since 2012 Ds in PA have lost 250k off their rolls); NC Rs +79k; FL Rs +62k; NM Rs +13k; NV I forget but it was significant R gain =/-10k; NH Rs net up; ME Rs up net 1k; IA Rs up again.
In not ONE battleground state Trump carried where we can measure D/R registrations (so this excluded VA, MN, MI, and OH) have Ds made net gains; while in several Trump lost (NM, NH, ME, and NV Rs have sometimes significant net gains.
These are all attributable to Trump, since the R party itself has done nothing. The trick is for candidates to align with him without being, er, nuts.