Posted on 12/11/2017 10:11:27 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Westerns analysts have concluded that Russia’s fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter is unlikely to enter operational service before 2027. Postponements, cost-overruns and research and development-related problems mar the project.
This should come as no surprise. The Su-57 program was never really viable.
Back in early 2006, Russian president Vladimir Putin integrated all of Russia’s aviation companies into a single, state-owned holding — the United Aircraft-building Corporation.
Over the time, UAC absorbed more than 20 aviation companies, and re-organized these into four aircraft-manufacturing divisions. One for combat aircraft, one for military transport aircraft, one for civilian aircraft and one for aircraft components.
In the course of the streamlining, most of the state-owned enterprises became joint-stock companies. However, the government owns at least 90 percent of shares.
Despite the resulting centralized and vertical structure, most of enterprises integrated within UAC have retained some level of autonomy. MiG and Sukhoi both have their own board of directors.
However, with few exceptions, these directors have no say. On the contrary, the entire UAC conglomerate is subject to a board of 14 directors, most of them well-known associates of Putin. Few are skilled industrial managers.
At top and above — Su-57s. Photos via Wikipedia
Despite bombastic reports in the Russian media, UAC turned out to be a lame duck. The conglomerate proved capable of re-launching production of types designed back in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Otherwise, UAC is incapable of innovation and adaptation.
The main reason is that most of UAC’s directors are hand-picked yes-sayers — people more than happy to discuss planning, strategies and new projects, but lacking the ability to make hard decisions. Unsurprisingly, over the last 10 years UAC has made promises it cannot fulfill,
In the case of the Su-57, UAC’s crucial failure was the early decision to close its Combat Aircraft Division to foreign investors. The first director of the consortium, former deputy minister of defense and later prime minister Sergey Ivanov, insisted back in 2006 that Russia “plans to develop this sector on its own.”
Combined with the dramatic collapse of the Russian economy in the wake of Western economic sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the inflexibility of UAC made the Su-57 impossible to realize. No matter how large or populated, a country with GDP comparable to that of Australia cannot afford to play at being a superpower, fight a protracted war in Syria and develop its own stealth fighter.
The last hope for the project was the serious Indian interest in financing the conversion of the Su-57 into a stealth strike fighter in the class of the Su-30MKI. But the management structures Putin imposed undermined that collaboration.
Of course, the Kremlin’s core interest in the Su-57 is scoring big propaganda points by creating a supposed match for Lockheed’s F-22 Raptor. This is something the business-minded Indian air force is not keen to finance.
And that means the Su-57 is going nowhere fast.
“Back in early 2006, Russian president Vladimir Putin integrated all of Russia’s aviation companies into a single, state-owned holding — the United Aircraft-building Corporation.”
Now that is a formula for failure.
“F-22ski”?
Look at the middle of the engine on the left, it looks like there's a bulge in the wing right next to it.......
This article doesn't talk about the hardware capability so much as the viability of the infrastructure necessary to fund, manufacture and market the plane.
We have underestimated our opponents before and paid for our arrogance of presumed superiority. ME-109s, Zeros and MiG 15s cost us heavily in blood until we designed planes to beat their capabilities. In future conflicts we won't have the luxury of 4 years to establish ourselves as the arsenal of democracy.
That is a trick of the lighting. The same 'bulge' is on the opposite side as well. I believe you will find that to be the main landing gear bay.
Sounds like they ought to refer to it as the new Backfire Bomber by they way they set up this corporation.
Be very wary of claims of a military program failure. It usually means exactly the opposite.
the United Aircraft-building Corporation
Only a communist could come with such a creative name for an....aircraft building company.
OK, let's start here...
According to public information from the CIA, Austrailia's GDP at $1.2 trillion is ranked #19 in the world.
Russia, at $3.8 trillion is #6, compared to the USA at $19 trillion #2 behind only China.
So right away, this article deals in the realm of hyperbole, not facts.
from the article: "The last hope for the project was the serious Indian interest in financing the conversion of the Su-57 into a stealth strike fighter in the class of the Su-30MKI."
Now we come to the heart of this matter.
Russians aren't really working alone, they've partnered-up with Indians -- the worlds #3 economy at $9 trillion GDP.
Russia plus India partnered = $13 trillion GDP, which you'd think enough to finance an exotic new fighter plane.
Note the Russia/Indian Su-30MKI -- Russians have built 240 for the Indians and that's what's interested them in a stealth version, the SU-57:
current Russia/Indian Su-30MKI -- new Russian SU=57:
The cost to India of their current SU-30MKI's is put at $56 million per.
The cost to produce the new stealth SU-57 is put at $50 million per.
The cost of the US F-22 Raptor is put at $150 million per, possibly explaining the Indians' interest in Russian aircraft.
US F-22 Raptor:
Limits on foreign investment in certain industries often makes sense for poor transitional economies.
USSR for example had an advanced LCD technology in the 1980s. The company engaged in it was put on market and bought by Toshiba for some ridiculous price. Everyone was fired immediately and machinery destroyed. Among other things the company was a sole producer of HUDs for all the Soviet military aircraft.
Way back when they were throwing around numbers, I was very skeptical that they would be able to produce those planes, in those numbers, at those prices. Too many bottlenecks.
There is a bulge on the right hand side as well but it looks like a shadow because of lighting angle
The worst part about the Zero was that it was based on a Howard Hughes design that our military rejected.
It may not be as obvious due to the lighting, but there is a matching bulge on the opposite side. I believe it is relief for the landing gear. It can be seen on the gear door in this photo:
[And that means the Su-57 is going nowhere fast.]
But you must think in Russian.
The First Secretary was not supposed to be here until 9!!
hell, once past the boundary area they don't even worry about flush rivets
And a formula for more efficient and centrally controlled corruption. Above all, Putin’s regime is a gangster state based on the bonds and manifesting the practices fostered by stealing together.
In contrast, based on official exchange rates, the CIA figures list Russia and Australia as having similar GDP in 2016: $1.188 trillion (Russia) to $1.262 trillion (Australia)(2016 estimate).
Purchasing power parity is based on a market basket of goods and services priced around the world. While intuitively appealing, it is not at all clear that in this instance the PPP concept should be preferred. Nominal accounting seems to fit better because a cutting edge fighter aircraft is a long term project.
In any event, the author's point is surely valid. Russia's financial and technical resources are grossly inadequate to building the fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter on the announced schedule -- and especially so without India participating in the project.
PPP is fundamentally flawed when it comes to comparing overall living standards between countries but it is rather precise if you want to compare costs.
Utilities, materials, labor and taxes in Russia are nowhere near that of Australia. You can expect their plane to be a bigger bang for a buck.
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