Posted on 12/01/2017 8:55:42 AM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
John McCain @SenJohnMcCain After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. http://bit.ly/2Bpj8yn 5:00 PM - Nov 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Chad Pergram @ChadPergram Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period." 9:32 PM - Nov 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Guy Benson @guypbenson Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw 9:20 PM - Nov 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
Senator Ron Johnson @SenRonJohnson We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform 12:14 AM - Nov 30, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
Senator Joe Manchin @Sen_JoeManchin I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward. 11:35 PM - Nov 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Guy Benson @guypbenson Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose. 2:45 AM - Dec 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
J.D. Durkin @jiveDurkey 🚨 Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://twitter.com/jayweber3/status/936588049244442624 … 2:43 PM - Dec 1, 2017 · Washington, DC
America's Newsroom @AmericaNewsroom "The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson 3:11 PM - Dec 1, 2017
Guy Benson @guypbenson This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://twitter.com/americanewsroom/status/936598735857111041 … 3:19 PM - Dec 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
The Associated Press BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul. 4:27 PM - Dec 1, 2017
Richard Rubin @RichardRubinDC New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/tax-bill-2017/card/1512140946 … via @WSJ 4:13 PM - Dec 1, 2017
Sen. Bob Corker Says Tax Bill Will Probably Pass “I realize that there’s probably enough votes right now to pass it,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) in a hallway interview on Friday morning. His comment
Laura Litvan @LauraLitvan Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote) “I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”
They don't like America and WANT SOCIALISM WITH BERNIE.
I listened to the NPR report on this bill this morning. In their standard “see how fair and balanced we are” tone, they provided a complete hit piece against the bill. It was comical.
Corker and Flake need to be kneecapped tonight on their way home. These 2 cats are the ultimate political tools on the take.
I think it is because they are between a rock and a hard place. Imagine a family with out of control credit card debt and no prospects for increased income, and the dad needs to come up with a new family budget that doesn’t impact the cable TV and all the other perks the family enjoys, but improves their financial condition.
The only “fix” is to perform some sort of austerity. But nobody wants that, so the whole thing is a shell game.
But as long as the bill eliminates the obamacare mandate, I’m good. Regarding the FedGov, that is all I’ve cared about since 1/1/2014. It’s all I cared about in the 2016 election.
Money flowing back to the “unwashed masses” from the UniParty coffers?????
I’ll believe when I see it.
John McCain is a committed "yes" when John McCain votes "yes" and not before.
There’s still time for the ePubs to f$ck it up, even at this late hour. In fact, given all the B.S. over news of Flynn’s cooperation with the special prosecutor, I’d bet anything that Corker, Flake, Collins and possibly even McCain will feel emboldened to vote NAY.
Face-saving BS. Will be some kind of "DACA fix" eventually though, Trump is for it in exchange for enforcement.
Tax Farce Bill.
The sooner that NPR and public television are COMPLETELY cut off from ANY government funding, the better.
Fox Business reporting Flake is a “yes” on the tax bill. That leaves Corker and Collins as possible “no” votes. Collins is out to lunch on this - her demands would make the bill essentially irrelevent. Corker may vote no, but a tie will be broken by VP Pence. When it passes, it is important that the House-Senate conference be held before the Alabama special election as if Moore loses, that one vote could be crucial.
Good one!
Word!
*** DemocRATS = America-hating obstruction, malfeasance, lying Marxism ***
But they don’t know what is in it and 99.9% of Americans don’t either. Gives media and Dems lots of room, maybe even justified, to vilify it. Why not some sunshine?
Hey Joe, want to stay in that plush senate job?
Start supporting President Trump 100% because if he comes to WVa to campaign against you, you are toast.
‘John McCain is a committed yes’ are not words I associate with good legislation.
They vote like the communist party.
Why is the Senate holding this vote after the stock markets close?
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