[neverevergiveup]

“The forecasting for Irma has been tougher... but, really, they've only missed this turn by around 12 hours. That's the difference between East and West coast of Florida.”

Seeing how difficult it is to model a hurricane and make short-term predictions using real-time data from satellites, Doppler radar, real-time air and water temperature and barometric pressure measurement, ocean buoys, and flights by highly instrumented airplanes, exemplifies why long term predictions on climate change (involving many more unknowns and variables) are very difficult to get right.

[VanShuyten]

“...exemplifies why long term predictions on climate change (involving many more unknowns and variables) are very difficult to get right. “

Don’t conflate short-term and long-term predictions. I can’t say whether or not you will be dead tomorrow, but I am confident you will be dead 100 years from now.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Seeing how difficult it is to model a hurricane and make short-term predictions using real-time data from satellites, ..... exemplifies why long term predictions on climate change (involving many more unknowns and variables) are very difficult to get right.

100% agree. Modelers minimize things that are hard (or unknown) like.. "clouds". The real world is quite complicated. More so than even our brightest modelers.