Hurricane Irma Live Thread III

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[NautiNurse]

The entire Florida Peninsula and points north are poised to experience Hurricane Irma after the storm hugged Cuba's northern coastline. Thousands of Floridians who evacuated the Atlantic cost to Gulf Coast areas found their safe shelter under direct threat from Hurricane Irma as the forecast shifted W Friday night and Saturday. Hurricane Irma's prolonged interaction with Cuba diminished its strength to Category 3.

Irma is forecast to increase in strength as it crosses the FL Straits. The Florida Keys experienced strong outer bands while Irma grazed the N Cuba coastline.

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

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Hurricane Irma Live Thread I
Hurricane Irma Live Thread II

[fatima]

I have more to post.He explains a lot.

[fatima]

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 57m 57 minutes ago More Here comes the added wildcard. Dangerous non-irma "lead" thunderstorms weather to enter East Central Florida next 2-10 hours.

Here comes the added wildcard. Dangerous non-irma "lead" thunderstorms weather to enter East Central Florida next 2-10 hours. pic.twitter.com/W9cYktKsSX— crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) September 9, 2017

[Dave346]

Irma has traveled slightly South in the last 3 hours. Was at 23.4 N at 5pm, now at 23.3 N at 8pm!

[maggief]

...seems to me it is wobbling and the last image was more of a wobble continuation.

Ditto.

[ducttape45]

I think many weather forecasters and meteorologists got the path of this one completely wrong and are gonna have egg all over their faces when all is said and done.

After missing the boat on Harvey they all wanted to be right on Irma. Alas, they were not.

Miami, completely destroyed! Umm, nope!

Fort Lauderdale? Still there!

Lots and lots of egg on faces. I bet things will not be destroyed to the extent everyone has predicted. Bets anyone?

[justa-hairyape]

That is its directional track. If no more turning it goes straight to houston.

[DoodleBob]

That's a fair point. Indeed, weather forecasting is vastly better than it was 20 years ago and we'd bash the media if they buried the threat.

The primary problem is the mixing of truth with half-truths or lies. I recall a key element behind Pravda's "success" during the Soviet era was because it mixed truths amongst the lies. For every noble meteorologist in the US, there are countless Michelle Kosinski's in a canoe or Greg Carbin (the chief of forecast operations at the Weather Prediction Center in Maryland who decided to keep lying about Winter Storm Stella's strength).

I don't doubt the complexity of forecasting weather. Forecasting in general is difficult - be it econometrics or polling or the like. I also get the preference to err on the side of caution. The problems arise when forecasters tout themselves as Delphic Oracles, and scold us ignorant little people when we challenge their authoritah.

Again your point is well-taken and it is worth stating. As noted elsewhere, I won't second-guess people who either stick it out or bolt. We will pray for the best and prep for the worst. Thank you for the thoughtful post.

[Dave346]

Irma in the past hour traveled straight South! Remained at 80.8 W.

[fatima]

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 2h 2 hours ago More Micromanage tracking of Irma's eye will only serve to confuse & give a headache. Use outer circulation, long duration loops. DISPLACED eye.

Micromanage tracking of Irma's eye will only serve to confuse & give a headache. Use outer circulation, long duration loops. DISPLACED eye. pic.twitter.com/S4B1wmYihw— crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) September 9, 2017

[SaxxonWoods]

You are right about course changes. Joaquin really messed with Long Island, Bahamas in 2015, wandering by it twice.

Interesting to watch.

The track has been moved westward, but has it been moved enough?

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

I think many weather forecasters and meteorologists got the path of this one completely wrong and are gonna have egg all over their faces when all is said and done.

I have Snipped and saved the new trajectory that shows Irma nipping Southern FL and potentially going into the Gulf. Will do some Googling to learn how to post it here. But the trajectory just on Friday is posted in the thread. That one showed it going up the gut of FL.

I called it, I knew this hurricane would never go through FL, the people at the Weather Channel need to be fired and apologies should be given to Rush Limbaugh for stating that certain interests are exploiting Irma for their own political gains.

[FamiliarFace]

They do for me too, but the last time I had to drive over the Skyway, actually I rode as a passenger, it was not nearly as bad as I thought it would be.

[Baldwin77]

Amazing how their accuracy improves in the hour before landfall !!!

[Vision]

The pull of Irma has taken the water around that part of the Bahamas.

[fatima]

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 1h 1 hour ago More HP to north will exacerbate E-FLA, SE GA, S SC impacts. Intense surf, Heavy rains, Expanded wind field NE, and higher tornado risk.

HP to north will exacerbate E-FLA, SE GA, S SC impacts. Intense surf, Heavy rains, Expanded wind field NE, and higher tornado risk. pic.twitter.com/YtuTq2WgZP— crankyweatherguy (@crankywxguy) September 9, 2017

[SomeCallMeTim]

I’ve been calling the more westward track for two days now.... The front was too far away to affect Irma’s direction. Not anymore. They’re clashing now. Just look at the water vapor Sat pics

[Extremely Extreme Extremist]

FRI 09/08/17:

SAT 09/09/17:

[gov_bean_ counter]

I saw that happen with a hurricane that hit east of Mobile Bay. The wrap around bands pushed a lot of water out of the bay. Weird to see.

[mewzilla]

Wasn’t familiar with Zello...Thanks for the tip, BG! :-)

[justa-hairyape]

Humidity verses density. Who wins ?