Oregon Public Pension Debt Officially Rises By $2.4 Billion

KUOW ^ | 29 July 2017 | Jeff Mapes

[Lorianne]

The official estimate of the deficit for Oregon's public pension system climbed by $2.4 billion Friday.

As a result, state and local agencies and school districts face even higher pension costs over the next two decades than they had earlier expected.

And the new deficit figure continues to fuel controversy over what the governor and state Legislature should do to ease those rate increases.

The new debt figure is the result of a unanimous vote by the board that oversees the Oregon Public Employees Retirement System. They chose Friday to reduce an estimate of how much PERS expects to earn on its investments from 7.5 percent a year to 7.2 percent.

That has the impact of raising the official estimate of the system's debt from $21.8 billion to just over $24 billion.

Some PERS observers had argued that the board should even more aggressively cut its assumed rate of return, saying that it remains overly rosy.

[OttawaFreeper]

The Soviet Union...thump...the Soviet Union...thump...the Soviet Union...thump...the Soviet Union..

[tired&retired]

I used to audit pension funds as a CPA. I remember talking with the actuary who stated that a 1 percent change in assumed ROI could easily change the required current funding to increase 15% or more. If we have a stock market downturn the actual yields could be negative really creating a financial disaster.

This is a ticking time bomb for many states...

[goodnesswins]

Oregon ping

Making leaving Oregon easier and easier...sad how the progs are ruining the state

[tired&retired]

If a .3% reduction in assumed ROI increased current year by $2.4 billion, that could be easily a 3% reduction and an increase of $24 billion.

[Wally_Kalbacken]

The critical thing is to look out for attempts to federalize the irresponsibility of various states (Illinois at the forefront, California not far behind) by offloading the costs to the taxpayers of all 50 states. This is lurking out there, and I sort of expected Obama to move in that direction in his lame duck phase, but it didn't happen. The Illinois constitution prohibits reductions in the pension benefits of public employees, and that was recently affirmed by their Supreme Court. This means the only way out for them is to keep raising state income taxes, which is only driving people with income and discretion to leave the state.

There is a fairly broad array of states in terms of funding public pensions, with a few fully funded, one or two were recently rated as slightly over funded. But then the majority are in a spread down to CA, which may presently be covering around 50% of its unfunded pension plan liability to state employees. That is 50% of an enormous number. Something has to give at to give, following the dicta which states - that which cannot continue, will not continue.

[blueunicorn6]

Maybe Oregon can borrow some money from Puerto Rico.

[dennisw]

The solution is simple. Rape the taxpayers.

[vetvetdoug]

California, Oregon, Illinois, and other state's Democrat “public service” employees have voted themselves the golden parachute that is really a Ponzi scheme that is going to implode.

[MrEdd]

It's a ticking time bomb only for a very few States.
Because most states have been underfunded outright no matter what return rates were since the late sixties to early seventies.

The issue and the morality of the short subject was a consistently debated subject in our two local papers when I was growing up.

I have argued the point for decades. Except with my brother in law. I explained this to him before he joined the police force and he blew it off, so now as it comes to fruition and he tries to garner sympathy at family gatherings I mock him and throw his earlier words right back at him.

Why would I do this? Isn't that mean?
No. The difference between someone who works twenty or thirty years expecting a pension after reality was explained to them and a student who borrows a hundred and seventy thousand dollars for a master's degree in women's studies expecting a high paying job is....well..absolutely nothing whatsoever.

And both of them are likely to demand that the public make up the difference between what they imagined (and some bureaucrat promised) and what was realistic.

A snowflake with a government job isn't anymore special than any other snowflake.

[eyeamok]

Since Ponzi schemes are clearly illegal, the Feds should just Abolish the fraudulent retirement ponzi schemes at the State Level, seize all the assets, roll the assets and All retiree’s into Social Security. Which is also a Ponzi scheme.

[gundog]

Easy-peasy. Kate will just raise taxes.

[dragnet2]

Like the private sector has experienced for 20+ years, simply cut their salaries, wages and benefits.

Very simple.

If it’s good enough for private sector America, it’s good enough for those in government sector.

[dragnet2]

So your BIL cop is looking for sympathy? Is he too demanding everyone pay more in taxes so he can get his bloated lottery style government pension?

[MrEdd]

I believe he expects the federal government to print money and bail Fort Worth out.

[rollin]

he real problem is that the chances of making 7.2% ireturn is only about 10%.

With the bond portfolio returning less than 4%, perhaps, a more meaningful expected rate of return would be 5%, of 2.2% less than the revised number.

Now that will cause a little angst among the politicians.

[hal ogen]

I know some smug retired government “workers”. It will be a laugh if they have to suck it up.