Atlanta Fed raises U.S. second-quarter GDP growth view to 4.0 percent

Reuters ^ | 6/1/17

[markomalley]

The U.S. economy is expected to grow at a 4.0 percent annualized pace in the second quarter based on the latest data on factory activity, construction and consumer spending released this week, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDP Now forecast model showed on Thursday.

[markomalley]

The actual press release from the Atlanta Fed:

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release.

Recent forecasts for the GDPNow model are available here. More extensive numerical details—including underlying source data, forecasts, and model parameters—are available as a separate spreadsheet.

Latest forecast: 4.0 percent — June 1, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 4.0 percent on June 1, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. The forecasts for second-quarter real nonresidential structures investment growth and real government spending growth fell from 6.2 percent and -0.3 percent to 3.4 percent and -0.7 percent, respectively, after this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 3.3 percent and 5.1 percent to 3.6 percent and 6.6 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for May—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.30 to 0.72 after the report.

The next GDPNow update is Friday, June 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

[Enterprise]

The economy is starting to roar. Buy stock in companies that make anti-depressants because the Democrats will be buying them by the trainload.

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

Those or razor blades.

[Sybeck1]

How much of this optimism is built on the thinking tax cuts are coming and Obamacare repeal is coming? Seems Republicans in congress could easily short circuit this

[Fresh Wind]

I’m sick of all this winning. Please, President Trump, stop it right now.

Maybe Jeb can give you some advice on how to lose more effectively.

[VeniVidiVici]

Won’t be long before the MSM credits Obama and the Democrats for this.

[central_va]

There is a lot of pent up demand for goods and services after 8 years of artificial austerity .

[ripnbang]

Please clap.......

[NTHockey]

>>Won’t be long before the MSM credits Obama and the Democrats for this.<<

FAKE news if they do. BTW, all the naysayers on President Trump’s budget can eat crow. They called his budget unrealistic, dead on arrival, etc. for assuming “only” 3% growth.

[ProtectOurFreedom]

All because Obama the Light Bringer set the policies that would let Trump enjoy the result.

You know that’s what we are going to hear.

This is a textbook perfect example of totalitarian control choking and stunting an entire nation and what happen she when the people rise up and throw the jackboot off of their necks.

The speed of this reinvigorating of the American animal spirits is breathtaking. Go Trump! Keep squashing the Kenyan mullatto homo’s “legacy.”

[Vince Ferrer]

I recently saw an interview with one of President Trump’s cabinet members on Neil Cavuto’s show. (I think). Neil kept hectoring the cabinet member, who I believe was Wilber Ross, about the unrealistic assumption of growth rates in Trump’s budget, which was 3.5% to 4.0%. Cavuto kept saying everyone he talks to says the US economy will never grow at 3.5% again. Well, without the budget being passed, without ObamaCare being repealed, and without tax reform, we have already hit the upper limit of what President Trump promised.

[Alberta's Child]

There is a lot of pent up demand for goods and services after 8 years of artificial austerity.

I don't see that at all.

I see an economy where even a lot of people who have the money to pay for goods and services have realized that they simply don't need most of them.

[RegulatorCountry]

The economy in my part of North Carolina has been effectively on life support since the early 2000’s other than the very high end which never missed a beat, but middle class and below have been taking a beating.

Now, whether it’s psychological or what, things are looking up. Lots of new home construction in the affordable category rather than just massive McMansions, regular folks have a sense of optimism.

What I see here supports the Atlanta Fed forecast.

[central_va]

The tires are worn out, the dishwasher died two years ago and the roof is on its last legs. At some pint the consumer will go into replacement mode.

[Hojczyk]

Right now it’s physiological....and jobs

[Hyman Roth]

The economy in my part of North Carolina has been effectively on life support since the early 2000’s

I'm in Fayetteville. I sense the same.

[LS]

I think the expectations of a tax cut were built into the first 3k increase. This is reality. The fact is, businesses know the economy will grow & be profitable undet Trump’s “America First,” so, no, I think regardless of what happens with tax cuts & Obamacare businesses think merely the deregualation aspects and trade adjustments are YUGE.

[LS]

And relief from regulations.

[Vendome]

[Rebelbase]

NC got hit twice. NAFTA finished off furniture and textiles well before the 08’ crash.

And then there was also the tobacco buyouts.