Posted on 04/19/2017 6:40:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I don’t want to sound like the Baghdad Bob of the 2018 election cycle, but the special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district was yet another reminder that despite the mainstream media’s relentless narrative attempting to turn the early days of the Trump administration into a story of GOP rout, reality has stubbornly refused to cooperate with them.
Don’t get me wrong—the GOP is absolutely facing headwinds in 2018. And there’s a lot of political ground left to cover in November. I’d certainly rather be in a position of winning districts by increasing margins rather than decreasing ones. Could the GOP lose the House?—Absolutely. But, as I wrote in my recent analysis of the 2018 election cycle, the Senate is not going to go Democratic in this political environment—or even anything close to it.
GA-06 is according to both the Cook PVI and 538.com the most Democratic-leaning seat in GA held by a Republican. There are 46 districts held by the GOP that are more Democratic than this one according to the 538 model. On the surface that would seem alarming for the GOP since the Democrats need win only 25 more seats to get a majority. But most of these are only very narrowly closer than GA-06. And very few of them will be open seats, as this one was. Given the broader context of the race, the political handicappers had already rated this race as a toss-up. The vast majority of allegedly vulnerable GOP seats are rated as no worse than GOP leans.
And GOP candidates look to have won overall by a couple of percent in an election in which they were badly outspent and spent most of their time attacking each other while Ossoff got slobberly wet kisses from the media and a largely free ride from his GOP opponents. Ossoff got tons of love and money from Hollywood, raising and spending well more than $8 million.
Regardless of what happens in the June runoff, Democrats are not going to bottle that same level of energy and attention and put it in 435 districts in November. They needed a victory and they didn’t get it. And at the end of the day, they didn’t even get that close, finishing with 48.1% of the vote.
Ossoff’s voters were certainly energized. Volunteers came from all over the country and 95% of his money came from outside the district. He took a staggering 71% of the early vote, showing that the most passionate Democrats, the same ones screaming at the GOP town halls, are definitely motivated. But there just don’t seem to be enough of them right now to swing the number of elections they need to win. And In Karen Handel the GOP picked probably the strongest candidate to go up against Ossoff in the general election.
As I wrote in my piece on 2018, the Georgia special election was a must-win for the Democrats if they wanted to show they had real political momentum on their side and a clear path to retake the House majority. They didn’t get there tonight. The reports of the electoral death of the GOP continue to be greatly exaggerated.
He doesn't even seem to know where he claims to live.
He said, repeatedly, that he lives about a mile and a half from the Sixth District so his girlfriend can walk to class at Emory Medical School.
Emory Medical School is four and a half miles from the Sixth District. So either he lives farther away from the district, or his girlfriend has to walk three and a half miles to school each day (uphill, both ways, no doubt).
This seemed like a case of Clintonistic lying when you don't have to, but the alternate theory that he doesn't really live in GA, and is thus not really sure where his girlfriend lives relative to the Sixth District also makes sense.
Democrats = CCCP party
“Don’t know why, but liberals seem to be able to out fundraise conservatives on a regular basis.”
A huge - unimaginable - proportion of the uber-wealthy are far left wing establishment zealots...even those in the business world. The left promises to freeze everything as it is and eliminate all competition and upward mobility. If you are very wealthy, you want things to stay exactly as they are, no movement whatsoever.
The Left will always have the wealthy. Because they promise to keep them that way and not let any upstarts threaten their position. Thus, they will raise the Very Big Money.
Hi, I’ve been looking but so far I don’t see a simple R vs D vote total.
Have you seen that? Did more Rs vote or did more Ds vote?
We won’t GAIN A DAMNED THING if these SOB’s don’t get off of LYIN RYAN’s a “BETTER WAY” train and jump onto the Trump agenda train!!! WE are getting sick to death of their BS!!!! I frankly don’t know who in the HELL Ryan thinks he is trying to sabotage Trump at EVERY DAMNED TURN!!!
“Why are people enamored with the ‘early vote’, it doesn’t count more then the regular vote!”
I think the first big bump of fraud is in the early voting, so it’s an important metric for demonrats.
2 indys and the rest Dems but the other dems were no issue since all the money and organization was behind ossoff. the other dems were non factors. Ossoff got the Dem vote and still could not win against a split GOP feild
“The mediots cannot understand why America doesn’t hate Trump as much as they do.”
They need to be made aware that we hate them even more than they hate Trump.
Because the bulk of Democrat money is forced extraction from union works as “union dues.” that the Mob bosses, I mean Union Bosses, then shovel out to Dems.
As the late great Dale Ernhardt said, “second place is the first loser.”
Conservatives are whistling past the graveyard on this one. Immigration has dramatically changed Georgia’s demographics and the full impact has not yet been felt as many immigrants and their children are not yet eligible to vote.
Barring something radical happening, GA will be a blue state before 2030.
Reagan's agenda wasn't put into place until a year into office.
I know they could claim a moral victory in Kansas, but definitely not here. Big difference between R+20 and about R+2.
I would argue that the main reason he didn’t win outright was because of Hollyweird and the coastal elites pushing him so much. Very little of his money and supporters came from the district (or even from GA), and the DNC machine largely ran the campaign.
By contrast, in KS-04, they were all completely absent and the candidates were running a very local campaign. It basically neutralized Trump’s message rather than accelerated it. It wasn’t enough to overcome the GOP lean but it was a lot more competitive.
This might be a message for the Dems (if they ever listen) to tell Hollywood and the MSM elites to shut up...
Because the Dems do great in the early voting, when the Gibmedats show at the polls. The later voting is when all of the working people vote.
Yes, Wexler....whiner of the house!
Ossof was pathetic. He remains pathetic. He will be stomped on by an elephant, even if nominated. But I hope the Dems give it their all. Balls to the wall in 435 districts. When the elephant is done stomping on them, they’ll know that their cause is lost, and riot and throw stuff, and pretend that they’re bravely fighting fascists while really acting fascistic. I hope it’s all done in the light of phone cameras, and that the Fake News industry becomes a laughing stock.
Read the whole thing. It gets even better.
There are three types of fatal neck cuts. One is where the wind pipe is cut. That’s slow and noisy, and the man can still fight, might even survive. The next is a jugular cut. Man could fight a little, but might just thrash around uselessly. He’s a for sure goner, but it takes time. The last is the carotid artery cut, which causes disorientation and death almost immediately. People with a cut jugular can run around in a circle holding a suitcase, trying to hail a non-existent cab. That’s the denial before a demise.
They keep telling the hoi polloi to hate him. Why won’t they listen!
“If I were a Big Money Rat Donor, I’d be tired of losing by now.”
They are, but they’re not tired of whining, so they’ll keep on losing.
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