Posted on 04/19/2017 6:40:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I dont want to sound like the Baghdad Bob of the 2018 election cycle, but the special election in Georgias 6th congressional district was yet another reminder that despite the mainstream medias relentless narrative attempting to turn the early days of the Trump administration into a story of GOP rout, reality has stubbornly refused to cooperate with them.
Dont get me wrongthe GOP is absolutely facing headwinds in 2018. And theres a lot of political ground left to cover in November. Id certainly rather be in a position of winning districts by increasing margins rather than decreasing ones. Could the GOP lose the House?Absolutely. But, as I wrote in my recent analysis of the 2018 election cycle, the Senate is not going to go Democratic in this political environmentor even anything close to it.
GA-06 is according to both the Cook PVI and 538.com the most Democratic-leaning seat in GA held by a Republican. There are 46 districts held by the GOP that are more Democratic than this one according to the 538 model. On the surface that would seem alarming for the GOP since the Democrats need win only 25 more seats to get a majority. But most of these are only very narrowly closer than GA-06. And very few of them will be open seats, as this one was. Given the broader context of the race, the political handicappers had already rated this race as a toss-up. The vast majority of allegedly vulnerable GOP seats are rated as no worse than GOP leans.
And GOP candidates look to have won overall by a couple of percent in an election in which they were badly outspent and spent most of their time attacking each other while Ossoff got slobberly wet kisses from the media and a largely free ride from his GOP opponents. Ossoff got tons of love and money from Hollywood, raising and spending well more than $8 million.
Regardless of what happens in the June runoff, Democrats are not going to bottle that same level of energy and attention and put it in 435 districts in November. They needed a victory and they didnt get it. And at the end of the day, they didnt even get that close, finishing with 48.1% of the vote.
Ossoffs voters were certainly energized. Volunteers came from all over the country and 95% of his money came from outside the district. He took a staggering 71% of the early vote, showing that the most passionate Democrats, the same ones screaming at the GOP town halls, are definitely motivated. But there just dont seem to be enough of them right now to swing the number of elections they need to win. And In Karen Handel the GOP picked probably the strongest candidate to go up against Ossoff in the general election.
As I wrote in my piece on 2018, the Georgia special election was a must-win for the Democrats if they wanted to show they had real political momentum on their side and a clear path to retake the House majority. They didnt get there tonight. The reports of the electoral death of the GOP continue to be greatly exaggerated.
Yep. Buckley’s beautiful journal turned into a snot-nosed Establishment rag—
Look, if the media and the Dems want to gloat over a loss that they consider a win, let them gloat.
They’ve sufficiently changed the language and now a lose for them is a win for them and a win for us.
Bottom line, watching them squirm and lie to themselves is quite entertaining as we keep winning.
Useful to note that there are agendas in play here.
Remember that Trump showed you can be outspent — overwhelmingly outspent — and still win. The degree to which this threatens the overall election industry is profound. Campaign advisers and directors and managers and “internal pollsters” and the gazillion other money sinks in electioneering are hugely threatened by this.
So you will have stories splashed even by Republicans talking about how problems exist and headwinds are faced — because they desperately need to undercut any momentum that might build to simply have smaller staff.
“We will lose House seats in 2018, every President does.”
Bush gained 8 house seats and 2 senate seats in the 2002 midterms.
Your theory is full of holes.
It’s the Shumer school of strategy
All it would take would be for the Republicans to demand that he produce a voter registration card.
They could nail down 2018 easily if they would just deal with 0bamacare and tax reform.
DAMMIT why don’t the get those done. Just DAMN!
“5 million in negative adds against Handel will be useless.”
But against Ossoff, who doesn’t even live in the state, the damage will be profound.
Look, Ossoff is done. His best chance to win was right now. The GOP candidates were all clobbering each other and he had 10 million in the bank running unopposed.
Just another example how the Dems are image over substance. Spent money they cannot afford to try and score a cheap PR victory that would be absolutely meaningless in the bigger picture.
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They are a child-like bunch - used to getting their way and having their demands met. At this point, they just want to beat Trump (and us) by winning ANYTHING, because their lies are not holding up anymore, and once that house of cards start falling, they’re simply over. That’s why they’re doing everything they can to try and start a real war in California.
The mediots cannot understand why America doesn’t hate Trump as much as they do.
One of the rules of politics is that there is ALWAYS plenty of liberal money. Don't know why, but liberals seem to be able to out fundraise conservatives on a regular basis.
Is Trump Derangement Syndrome so strong, that they will pay any price, bear any burden, for any so called moral victory they can claim against Trump??
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It’s how they raise $$ from the cult members. They are activating the inculcated hatred and fury they planted and keep feeding to their own benefit. SOP. Just another version of economic redistribution, except it’s become cannibalistic.
Wexler
They say the only reason the disgusting Pelosi is still the minority leader is because she brings in the big bucks, so I can believe what you’re saying.
“Eleven of 18 were republicans. How were the other six split?”
Four Dems and two Independents.
Granted the left has become downright scary with their beating up Republicans and their total lawlessness when in power, not to mention their racism against whites.....which is hugely not in their favor to get the average Joe to vote dem at the moment but do not ignore cycles even with how crazy the left has become they have the non-stop propaganda on their side.
Thanks for the info. I understand that this district has become more liberal like lots of suburban areas of the South. Sounds like the GOP candidates for this seat reflect that.
Poor Dems: "We're going to lose so much, you're going to get tired of losing!"
I prefer what we got...
When Newt won the District 3% of the District was black. Today that number is 30%. Democrats aren’t ‘changing minds’ they’re importing ringers.
Conventional wisdom, which does not necessarily apply to DJT. It depends how badly Ryan & Co fail to do their jobs. Trump won't allow it, imho. Of course, if rumours are true about Bannon & Co losing influence to moderates, then the house is definitely in play.
I will not accept; no wall, ceding climate agreements to Ivanka & Kushner, no Obamacare solutions, no tax solutions., etc
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