Opinion: Raucous French election could be won by dark horse François Fillon

MarketWatch ^ | Apr 13, 2017 | Darrell Delamaide

[iowamark]

As the tumultuous French presidential campaign enters the home stretch, the surprising dark-horse candidate who could finish first is the one who was leading out of the gate — the former conservative prime minister, François Fillon...

Fillon has stubbornly resisted calls to step down after revelations he paid his wife and children government salaries, though they apparently did little or no work in return. He has not denied the payments, but insists he did not misuse public funds...

And Fillon has a big ace-in-the-hole he is playing to great advantage in these final days of the campaign — the very popular François Baroin is widely seen as his choice for prime minister...

This is where Fillon has centrist Emmanuel Macron at a big disadvantage. Macron has created his own “movement” without any party infrastructure. Being without a party, and claiming to lean neither left nor right, he has not been able to name a prime minister. He says it depends on which way the election goes for him to name a prime minister who can command a majority.

But Fillon and Baroin have hammered away at the notion that Macron, who was economy minister in the unpopular government of President François Hollande, remains a closet Socialist, and will have to pick a prime minister from the Socialist Party ranks. The two conservatives warn that those who truly want a change from Hollande should not vote for Macron.

Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen is doing her best to sabotage her own chances of eventually winning or perhaps even getting past the first round of voting. She failed to impress in the two nationally televised debates, with performances that ranged from lackluster to pugnacious...

[MeganC]

The media is trying to do to Le Pen what they tried to do with Brexit and Trump. The more they do this the more I expect Le Pen to win the election!

[mewzilla]

ROTF! Looks like the French Uniparty is getting desperate.

[iowamark]

The Republican Party of France, the party of Charles DeGaulle, is the only Christian, and the only major pro-free enterprise party in France. The other major parties are socialist, marxist, and/or fascist.

[BestPresidentEver]

“the very popular François Baroin is widely seen as his choice for prime minister...”

I thought PMs were always chosen by the parliament in these types of governments.

[iowamark]

The French PM is chosen by the President but must have majority support in the Parliament. Thus, a President from a very small party, like LePen, or Macron, would have a very difficult time finding a PM who could govern. The Republicans will likely be the biggest party in the new Parliament.

[libertylover]

after revelations he paid his wife and children government salaries, though they apparently did little or no work in return

Reminds me of that Chicago hospital that hired Michelle Obama for around $325,000 per year. After Obama was elected and they moved to Washington, the hospital replaced her with...wait for it...no one!

[Impy]

Fillion is not a dark horse, he’s the only traditional major party candidate with a chance, a chance diminished by a trumped up fake scandal.

The latest news is that communist (not officially but he is) Jean-Luc Melenchan has surged into contention. It’s close to a 4-way tie.

Le Pen is still out in front in the first round. IMO she has almost no chance, unless maybe the commie is her runoff opponent, though he leads runoff polls against her too. Her fans may not want to hear this but France is not America and Trump never trailed by over 20 points.

I would vote for Fillon and pray the runoff is him and Le Pen. The independent socialist pig Macron will win if he makes the runoff.

More news, thousands of overseas voters were accidentally mailed 2 ballots and while they could face prosecution after the election if they cast both, that wouldn’t stop them from having those votes counted.

[BillyBoy]

>> thousands of overseas voters were mailed 2 ballots, and while they could face prosecution after the election if they cast both, that wouldn’t stop them from having those votes counted. <<

I've taught 'em well! The frogs have finally learned THE CHICAGO WAY of doing politics, son!

[pepsionice]

In the last month, there are three interesting developments which will make end result difficult to predict.

1. Melenchan has passed Fillon and is about four points away from Macron. The debates have helped Melenchan, and he’s mostly taking votes away from Macron’s base. With about a week left....it’s possible that Melenchan can take two more points away from Macron, and by a very small percentage...get to second place.

2. A large percentage of society (roughly 20-percent) say they’ve yet to make up their mind over who to vote for. Journalists will say it’s an all-time record for this mystery vote situation, when just a week or so away. Guessing how the 20-percent will go at the last minute is practically impossible.

3. In a normal election, around 20-percent of the registered French voters stay home. Some polls are suggesting that 30-to-35 percent of the public might stay home. An unusually high number.

If you add up the mystery voters, Melenchan versus Le Pen, and a third of the voting public staying home...the poll folks are probably in for a shock.