ItaLeave: Italy Increasingly Likely To Abandon The Euro

Zero Hedge ^ | 02/05/2017 | Submitted by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

[SeekAndFind]

An analysis of the political setup in Italy shows eurosceptics are on the verge of taking control of the country.

The only missing ingredient is an early election. And early elections are now the odds-on favorite.

Let’s back up a bit to fill in the pieces as to how things got to this point.

1. Former prime minister Matteo Renzi stepped down in December after holding a referendum that failed miserably. See Renzi Resigns Following Crushing Referendum Defeat: Beppe Grillo, Marine le Pen, Matteo Salvina Tweets
2. Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, appointed Paolo Gentiloni as the new prime minister after Renzi resigned. See Meet Paolo Gentiloni, 4th Consecutive Italian Technocrat Appointed Prime Minister: Renzi Not Vanquished Yet
3. The president said he would not hold new elections until differences between how the lower house of parliament assigned seats.
4. Point number three has been resolved. Both houses of Parliament are back on a proportional system.

New Elections

• New elections are possible now but the next scheduled elections are not until 2018.
• Matteo Renzi wants new elections in June. Even though he resigned, he wants back in. Renzi wants new elections this year because PD may oust him if he waits.
• Beppe Grillo wants elections as soon as possible because he believes he will win, and also because FI leader Silvio Berlusconi cannot run for prime minister until 2018 because of a tax fraud conviction.
• Berlusconi does not want early elections, but he is in the minority.

It is up to the president to call new elections, and there is pressure form at least two fronts for him to do so.

Election Polls

Chart from Opinion polling for the next Italian general election.

The situation for Renzi is actually way worse than it appears. Not only do polls tend to over-play support for PD, the party is about to splinter. Via email, Eurointelligence explains …

Whatever Happens in Italy, Grillo is Winning

 

Our pessimism about the political outlook for Italy was confirmed once more this morning with reports that the PD is now very likely heading for a split – the trigger being disagreement over the election date. Pier Luigi Bersani, Renzi’s predecessor as general secretary of the party, came out strongly against early election in June saying that the PD would be finished as a party if Renzi were to go ahead.

 

Renzi could assemble a majority in the Italian parliament in favour of a new electoral law and early elections, so this is technically doable. The question is, at what cost? Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement officially supports early elections, but Renzi probably has a point when he says that another year of political chaos in the PD would drive even more voters to Grillo, whose party thrives on the chaos in the country. In other words, Grillo wins both ways, and the likely design of the electoral law will also be favourable to his party. So much for the theories that there would be a technical stitch-up to keep the Five Star Movement out of power. The Italian establishment is not sufficiently united to be able to do this.

 

Massimo D’Alema, Renzi’s fiercest oponent within the PD, says he has done research on the potential electoral support for a party to the left of the PD which could count on 11-14% of the vote. With a weak centre-right and a fragmented left, the probability of a victory by the Five Star Movement, perhaps in alliance with other radical forces, must now be considered very high.

Wrong Five Ways

The don’t worry, it will never happen crowd said …

1. Renzi would win the referendum – Wrong
2. Renzi would not resign if he lost – Wrong
3. Renzi would gracefully step aside after he resigned – Wrong
4. PD would not splinter – Wrong
5. The other parties would pass legislation making it impossible for M5S to gain control – Wrong

That same don’t worry, it will never happen crowd also proposed

1. An alliance between Grillo and other parties won’t happen
2. If an alliance does happen, parliament will not approve a referendum on the Euro
3. If there is a referendum on the Euro, people will vote against leaving
4. It still requires a constitutional amendment

Point number 6 is in the works right now. And if such an alliance does form and win (both are highly likely in my opinion), then all that is left to stop “Italeave” is fearmongering and points 8 and 9.

[SeekAndFind]

[SeekAndFind]

[Gaffer]

The way things are going, if I were a country that is a part of a European Union that is largely dominated by a Merkel Germany, I’d be high-tailing my ass outta there.

As it is, the only thing in Germany’s future is decomposition and smelly rotting.

[dp0622]

Italy needs to get out.

And form some new legions to drive out the muzzies :)

[Redcitizen]

50 ways to leave your lover.

[Trump20162020]

When is Greece going to tell the EU to F off?

[Gay State Conservative]

Italy is either the third or fourth largest economy in the EU.If Le Pen wins while talk of Italy leaving continues all hell will break loose on the left.

[metmom]

Brexit was a start and unexpected but alone, it may not have had an effect.

The NWO globalists tried to hard to stop Trump from winning cause they knew it would be disastrous for them.

It showed that it could be done and not only once but twice and in a country as powerful as the US.

YEA!!!!

[metmom]

I LOVE it.

[LydiaLong]

Please don’t take back the Lira. I hated it. You’d carry around a million lira and it would buy you lunch.

[Trump20162020]

The European Union lost the world’s fifth/sixth-largest economy in Britain, they’re not going to make up for that by adding more dirt-poor eastern European nations such as Ukraine, that will do nothing but take.

[publius911]

Who saw this happening, when the EU was being proposed 24 years ago, as a counter to the economic domination of the U.S.?
I thought the notion that the concept of totally independent nations could not last long with the fractional long ever-changing political and economic alliance history of Europe.

All the pundits, experts and talking heads, including many on FR over the years. Someone once stated that nations never have, for long, friends and enemies; just national interests.

[I want the USA back]

I hope so. I’d hate to see the Coliseum become a mosk.

[goldbux]

Glad to see ItaLeave catching on.

I posted this on a similar thread many months ago:

The Marin Forensic Language Pathology Lab offers these inspirational, descriptive meme tags to help motivate the respective countries’ citizens to vote their freedom from the EU.

• Austria -> Outstria
• Belgium -> BrusselsprOuts
• Bulgaria -> BugOut
• Croatia -> EatcrowEU
• Cyprus -> Byeprus
• Czech Republic -> CzechOut
• Denmark -> OutforDanish / Rottengone
• Estonia -> Extonia
• Finland -> Finit
• France -> EaU Revoir / Gaulstones
• Germany -> KrOut
• Greece -> Grecede
• Hungary -> Boodapests
• Iberian Peninsula -> Iberianderedundat
• Ireland -> WhiskedOut
• Italy -> ItaLeave
• Latvia -> Leavenya
• Lithuania -> Leavethuania
• Luxembourg -> Nixemburg
• Malta -> NoMalta
• Netherlands -> NeverMind
• Poland -> Goland
• Portugal -> Portugo / Portugone
• Romania -> Gomania
• Slovakia -> Slowalkaway
• Slovenia -> Slowvanaway
• Spain -> SpanishFly / Spaindex
• Sweden -> SweDone
• United Kingdom -> Brexit / UKanshoveit