Posted on 12/20/2016 1:33:48 PM PST by Kaslin
So the Democrats are largely down in the dumps after yesterday’s Electoral College results. Not only did Trump get certified as the next POTUS, but Hillary Clinton actually lost ground in the total EC vote spread. But on the bright side, the worst is over, right? The bandage has been ripped off and the healing can begin. I mean… it can’t actually get any worse than this, can it?
Perhaps our liberal friends shouldn’t pick this week to quit sniffing glue because it’s just possible that it might. The battle for the midterms will be gearing up in earnest as soon as we sober up from the New Years parties and the writing on the wall looks pretty ugly. It may seem unthinkable, but there is a possible path in front of us which could see the Dems winding up with so few seats in the Senate that they couldn’t even muster a filibuster. (Assuming we don’t nuke it next month.) Stuart Rothenberg at the Washington Post describes just such a doomsday scenario for the regional party currently lurking in a handful of coastal cities.
The GOP’s strong 2016 election showing raises a crucial question: Do Republicans have any chance of netting eight Senate seats – and a filibuster-proof majority – in 2018?
The upcoming Senate class is unusually unbalanced. Only eight Republican Senate seats are up for election in 2018, compared to 25 Democratic seats (including two independents who caucus with the Democrats). Ten of those Democratic seats are in states carried by Donald Trump.
By any measure, Democrats are on the defensive in the next fight for Senate control. A three-seat Democratic midterm gain, which would give the party a majority, looks virtually impossible given the seats up this cycle.
What Stuart is talking about here is the same theory which Ed Morrissey explored back at the beginning of the month. It’s far from a certainty, but unless there’s a major change in liberal electoral fortunes, the Democrats will be slugging it out in some decidedly unfriendly territory in as many as a dozen races.
Bear in mind that Democrats usually do better in presidential cycles than midterms, thanks to the dynamics of turnout, and one starts to sense the disaster Sabato sees looming. There is little chance of Democrats losing the deep-blue coastal states or Minnesota, especially with Amy Klobuchar defending her seat. After that, though, Democrats have a large number of seats that look at serious risk, including Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, Wisconsin again, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and probably Florida. All of these states have Republican legislatures and went for Trump in this election. Picking up those eight bring Republicans up to 60, and that’s without considering what might happen in Virginia, West Virginia, and Maine — where Trump did stronger than expected and which is represented by an independent (Angus King) who caucuses with Democrats.
Here’s the map we’re dealing with:
Even some of the seats Ed marks off as “safe” for the Democrats aren’t quite as safe as they once were. For one thing, the Dems’ map relies on Wisconsin and Michigan staying in their columns. Yes, Donald Trump’s margins of victory in those states was small, but a win is a win and it was a statewide race. Plus, Democratic turnout in the midterms is, as Ed noted, always lower to begin with. So could this actually happen?
As Rothenberg reminds us, it’s rare when the party of the sitting president picks up eight or more seats in a midterm, but it has happened. (Granted, not since 1934, but it’s been done.) And while 2016 was something of a unicorn in terms of electoral history, with Trump still in office, will whatever magic drove him through that blue wall still be brewing away? Plus, of the last three times that the Senate swung eight or more seats in a midterm – 1986, 1994 and 2014 – two of the three went in the GOP’s favor. That likely ties in more with the fact that Republicans do better in the midterms than the influence of which party held the White House.
In the end I think it all comes down to Trump. If he can deliver on any decent number of his promises and work with the GOP leadership to get some conservative reforms in place, his voters may just turn up again, even in the blue wall states. Of course, that also depends on how strongly he chooses to get out there and campaign for the Republican challengers and push them from the bully pulpit. Will he be willing to do that? He wasn’t exactly treated kindly by a lot of the power players in the party these past two years and he made his disdain for the establishment quite clear. But President Trump may prove to be a very different beast than candidate Trump (something we’re already seeing in his cabinet picks) so you never know. I certainly wouldn’t write off the possibility of 60 or even 62 seats given how that map looks.
Oh, and before I forget… Merry Christmas, Democrats! May your holiday be filled with love, joy and acceptance. And a lot of booze. And don’t throw out that tube of airplane glue just yet…
If you deduct the Democrat illegal votes cast in Minnesota, etc., Trump won Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia!!!
McCaskill and Manchin are about to become strong Trump followers
Crush them.
See them driven before you.
Hear the lamentation of Pajama Boy.
There is little chance of Democrats losing the deep-blue coastal states or Minnesota
Trump came damned close to winning Minnesota
John McCain and Lindsay Graham’s seats do not count as Republicans. Just FYI.
How about Republican euphoria at a possible 60 seat majority in 2020.
I think Joe Manchin is going to flip parties.
I count 12 possible. And if we have a 1934 type year, it could be more. Essential to recruit the best electable candidates.In some states, that means 90%+ conservative. Others, 80, 70, 60, even 50%. And make the Dims campaign in every single state and district.
Trump won without maximum ground game. We now have a chance to also recruit more ground game. Every thing from precint committeeman/woman to Senators and Governors. Ohio has a governor’s race in 2018. What does your state have?
If patriots woke up their low-information state lawmakers, then these lawmakers could do the following. They could ratify an amendment to the Constitution to repeal the 17th Amendment, the repeal amendment having a provision to give the states the power to recall federal lawmakers. Then the states could have 60+ federal RINO senators before 2018.
But realistically speaking, this is like expecting that somebody like Trump could be elected president.
Oh, wait !
Did you hear what that arrogant pos occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave did?
Obama bars oil drilling in swaths of Atlantic, Arctic oceans
President Obama on Tuesday ordered wide swaths of the Atlantic and Arctic oceans placed "indefinitely" off-limits for future oil drilling, in a final fossil-fuel crackdown before he leaves office.
The move, intended to protect the area’s ecosystem, is a final push by Obama to seal his environmental legacy, and a possible way to bind the hands of his successor.
More Here
One off the first things President Trump needs to do is tell that arrogant pos to shove his legacy up his derriere and nix his ban.
Kelli Ward should primary that Flake.
Yes, this slimy queer lesbian Baldwin needs to go.
Joe Manchin (D) of West Virginia would be smart to flip to the Republican party before the next congress convenes. He is up in 2018 and is vulnerable as a (sort of) conservative dem.
Forget 60, is 67 seats possible?
I like the map.
HELLO DEPLORABLE FREEPERS!!!! I’m on such a high today..... it’s official...PRESIDENT TRUMP!!! So so surreal I am still wallowing on our fantastic VICTORY!!! Went down YouTube memory lane with all the victory videos ...the Trump train music and can you hear the people sing anthem videos are SO awesome!!! Thank you Jesus!
She’s committed to a primary right now.
This year, the Republicans were defending 22 and the Dems 12.
In 2018, the Republicans will be defending 8 and the Dems 23.
Getting a 60 majority might be a tad optimistic — for the Dems.
If the Republicans play their cards right, they might attain that 67 Supermajority.
It’s all going to depend on Trump making things better economically in the next two years for the middle and lower middle class. If he does that, then the Democrats can kiss it goodbye.
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