Posted on 12/05/2016 2:46:05 AM PST by expat_panama
Do I need more coffee, or does this make absolutely no sense?
What's the real rate?
Yeah, that unemployment rate going down to 4.6 means we know that absolutely every single word and number from the BLS is a lie, and we know that becuae the BLS says the participation rate's up and we know that everything the BLS says is true.
Now that we've settled that, let's think about whether the fact that everyone's left the work force is going to force an increase in wages....
What's the real rate?
I kinda had y'all in mind when I posted #4
They are U-3s.
People who have given up looking for a job are 'non-persons' and therefore aren't unemployed people...
Labor markets may indeed be too tight in one sense. A full boat transfer payment package is worth about $69,000 in wages. Almost no one on a full boat package is worth that in labor markets. Hence, no one is looking to invest labor in a lower dollar yield than a no labor input receives. If we create an economic environment that demands labor, but below the transfer payment level, there will only be immigration to fulfill that demand. We need to return to the welfare reform benefit levels, work requirements and expected behaviors.
Well, buckaroos, the adventure continues! Stock index futures are saying we're in for new highs; maybe they saw how last week's pull back came w/ falling volume. Futures also see metals prices falling --natch, gold/ silver are down to new lows: $1,165.46/$16.61.
Our only econ announcement's gong to be ISM Services, a half hour after the market opens.
Lot's of new FR econ threads tho:
Shadowstats has the ‘real’ rate at 22.8%...that I can believe.
--and the big question now is w/ the econ coming back online will they come back to work or will wages have to soar?
No more coffee for you!
The current “unemployment rate” figures make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The number of “employable but not working” in this country is nearing 100 million, and still growing. The bean counters crow about “creating” 178,000 jobs, but meanwhile some 400,000 are either dropping out of the labor market altogether, or never entering with the first job.
I do not care how the bookkeeping is done, that is still a net loss of people employed out of the existing pool of potential workers. And it is a cumulative and GROWING number. If the unemployment rate were being honestly reported, we are at Depression levels of economic stagnation.
>>Do I need more coffee, or does this make absolutely no sense?<<
No, it explains the obozo no-recovery recovery. When the labor participation rate falls, the number of people lookong for work falls so unemployment goes DOWN.
If you have 10 people looking for work and 6 are employed you have 40% unemployment. But if you have 8 people looking for work (since 2 have left the labor participation pool) and 6 are employed you have 25% emmployment — thus the rate falls with no additional employment.
When these reports also include the fact that wages aren’t rising, then you know the unemployment figures are BS (in terms of “true” unemployment). When the labor market is tight employers have to fight for workers with higher pay, this hasn’t happened in this country in more than a decade (with the exception of a few fields).
Trump MUST, MUST, MUST debunk the mythical unemployment rate coming from the BLS. He must clean house in this rigged organization. Because this same crooked outfit will change the formula to show increasing unemployment increasing under Trump. Book it!!!! D.C., every agency and department, needs to be cleaned out. Most are Liberals and Democrats.
Since when is 170 something thousand jobs added a GOOD monthly rate? As far as I know it is about half ad much needed to service the simple replacement rate.
It sounds like the “experts” from the last eight years. It will take something stronger than coffee to make sense of this article.
“—and the big question now is w/ the econ coming back online will they come back to work or will wages have to soar?”
What about people like me that simply refuse to work, at least in the US while Obama is President?
I refuse to pay any taxes and contribute as little to the economy as I reasonably can. I am able to work but have lived off savings and tax exempt investments for years. Before that I made sure my charitable donations were high enough to not owe any tax.
No, if you magically recatergorize the unemployed as non-participating, the unemployment rate drops!
The Magic Negro’s Accounting Principles!
fractions are tough in the morning
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