Posted on 11/13/2016 11:44:29 AM PST by LS
Boy was I wrong. All along I had Trump at between 62 and 64 million votes. Our overly optimistic friend "Sundance" at www.conservativetreehouse.com was completely off the charts unrealistic, with a projection of 73 million.
Yes, Trump won the electoral college---as I predicted---big. As of today I think he is at 304. Another 720,000 votes in seven states would have given him an additional 43 electoral votes.
But unfortunately I was right in another prediction: the margin would be large, but each state would be decided by a small fraction of voters. Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida all hinged on fewer than 180,000 votes. To appreciate how close that is, Obama won reelection in 2008 by under 480,000 votes, and I thought that was very close. I did correctly predict that the dominoes would all fall in the same direction, and, more or less, they did. We lost VA and NH in the east, and NV and CO by larger margins in the west, but the battleground tier of OH, WI, MI, PA, IA, NC, and FL all fell to Trump.
So it's time to put good feelings aside for just a moment---we'll have plenty more in the coming months---and appreciate just how close . . . how MIRACULOUS . . . this election was.
You begin with Hillary Clinton, the equivalent of a new coach being given a Super Bowl team with All Stars at every position and a free agent budget the size of Jupiter (less the emigrating Cher). Cankles had 90% name recognition, a sitting president more or less behind her, a docile party obedient to her whims, and a fawning media such that Saddam Hussein or Napoleon would have been fortunate to have.
And with all that she got six million fewer votes than Zero in his second election (where he got millions fewer than in 2008). It's darn near unfathomable, looking at it objectively, to figure out how she lost, given the numbers.
She'll likely end up winning the popular vote by 500,000 to 1 million, held the expected liberal vote treasures of New York, Illinois, and California, held Obama's western states without exception, eked out a narrow win in New Hampshire, and got Virginia as expected.
Yet she was crushed in the electoral college by a guy who spent HALF as much as she did. How?
*She didn't make any inroads at all with females---supposedly Cankles' calling card. White women went for Trump. There was no big "gender gap," except with men, who couldn't stand her.
*She lost millions of black and hispanic votes. Pew's research is unreliable---these guys did polls, remember? ---but they say Trump only got 8% of blacks. (I find that very unlikely, especially when every other poll was showing him at nearly double that.) But if blacks didn't vote for Trump, they sure didn't vote for Cankles. In FL and NC, when all is said and done she probably lost several hundred thousand African-American votes.
*"Da Yuts" were repelled by her. They stayed home.
*She lost the northern tier of rust belt states because she just didn't care. Cankles made NO visits to Wisconsin, only a couple of desperation trips to Michigan and Pennsylvania in the end. That message got out.
*Trump was indeed hurt by the tape, and vote counters in Ohio found that erstwhile R absentees dated right after the tape release suddenly had a very high percentage of Johnson votes. I'm guessing the tape cost Trump NH, possibly MN.
Still, the tape cannot account for the lack of turnout for Trump. NeverTrumpers? Some. For whatever reason, though, Trump did not turn out the large number of new voters that was expected by his supporters such as myself. (The limited data we have says that 90% of Republicans voted for him).
That leaves us with one explanation: Trump's election was a miracle. Some 60,000-70,000 voters in MI and PA saved the country. WI was a nice addition, but without one more state, WI's 10 electoral votes wouldn't have put Trump over. No, this was divine intervention.
And, in a way, it is perfectly in keeping with the Bible, for it was Gideon who prepared to go to war with 30,000 men . . . "the old fashioned way." God told him many were not committed, and to winnow them out. When only 3,000 remained, Gideon was told to cut the number further. Finally only 300 fully committed men remained. The message was that God wanted Gideon to know that it was His power, not numbers or the skill of the troops, that would bring victory.
So in the end, our "monster vote" never materialized. God cut the number down to under 180,000 in five states so that no one could doubt Who really won this one.
I don’t think all the votes are in yet. It took weeks before the 2012 Romney/Obama counts were finalized. Romney was under McCain’s vote total for weeks until the final counts were in and he went up above McCain.
Phyllis Schlafley...
Rest in peace, knowing you stood for the right things.
He brought His terrible swift sword.. They brought nothing, and so left with nothing. God has Blessed America.
It should really raise questions about just how much fraud was involved in 2008, when 2012 and 2016 didn’t even come close to those numbers. Could it be that 2016 was a normal election and 2008 and 2012 were the vast amount of fraud elections?
Not so, WI alone would have got him to 269, a tie, a win...ME CD 2 put him over the top.
So MI and PA weren’t even necessary.
LS, those of us who still have faith in GOD and this nation would be prone to believe, GOD won. We prayed for a miracle, and HE bestowed a miracle upon us. Perhaps there are now a few ‘doubters’ who will open their minds and their hearts so the LIGHT can shine in.
Amen.
THis election was the best example yet to prove the wisdom of the electoral college. 538 got it wrong but in another sense, 538 saved the nation.
The NY Times, of all places,was the site withthe quickest response. I loved their little speedometer that wentfrom 95. Percent hillary to 95plus percent trump win in underanhour.
Nicely done, thank you!
Great advice. We all need to be sure about President Trump’s choices before we render any type of evaluation here on FR.
Furthermore, we KNOW that he will be criticized about EVERYTHING he does by the MSM. I hope FR will VET every criticism but will not join in with it.
Basically looking at the Nate Silver map a couple days before when he raised Trump’s chances, it looked like Trump had 6 paths to victory. And even if there was only a 15-20% chance any one state would go for him, he got to roll that dice 6 times, making his chance of making 270 near 100%. It was looking very likely he would win as his polls ticked up in those final couple days, because he had so many paths. He ended up hitting about half the dice rolls. Missed on VA, NV, CO, NH but hit PA, MI, WI and ME CD 2. It was Hillary who had to run the table to stop him and it was a very tall order for her.
However, with the nutcase liberals now trying to buy EVs, would they have picked up a couple? So PA and MI provide a margin of peace.
I built a spreadsheet to track incremental percentages. There was something quite fishy about VA:
Any analysis that treats Hillary as just a democratic candidate is going to miss the target. In the last quarter century the democrats threw themselves at her feet. It was all about Hillary, all the time. Her narcissism is total. Now that she’s stopped, the democrat party, a mere empty shell, has no idea what to do with itself. They are a brutalized people, like Germans when Hitler died - they have no clue, totally lost. That’s why the snowflakes are so agreeable to rioting - they’ve lost their god, quite literally.
306 EVs.
6 Obama states flipped.
3 Rust belt states that haven’t gone red since 80s.
Winning white working class women by 30 points (record).
Winning more evangelicals than Bush, McCain or Romney. Winning more veterans than Bush, McCain or Romney.
On and on... We won big league.
And he won facing the most hostile corrupt press in history, and much of his own party. While predicted by many to lose big time.
This was historic.
Thanks for this post and for your analysis throughout this election. It kept me hopeful. I told a friend about your knowledge of the vote counting, she began checking to see what you had to say about how things were going, and it bolstered her confidence, too.
The MSM was very close to flipping this election to Hillary.
I got a call yesterday from one of my closest friends in Portland, OR who couldn’t believe Trump won. (Hillary Supporter)
I told him that what is being sold in the MSM on the West Coast doesn’t represent a sizable portion of the USA.
He agreed that is a very likely possibility.
Until we have a viable, reliable media solution to the NYC-Atlanta-LA-Chi-DC media machine, we will continue to fight this every election.
Bigly.
And you are right. Nothing happens--not even B. Hussein's seizure of power for the last eight years--without the providence of the Almighty.
A lesson we need to heed and understand.
A pause in the withdrawal of God's hand of judgement seems to be taking place. Will we respond appropriately? Will we show love and kindness to those who are so hateful now?
Will we stand for justice, too?
These are not mutually exclusive positions. There are lots of LIVs out there--in the world of the university, in the world of the urban ghetto, in the world of the low wage worker....and they have been lied to for DECADES by the Democrat party and other liberal institutions. Time for some true prosperity, along with a warm embrace, to bring them to the right side.
The riches of this world are not enough. They have to see that we as conservatives CARE about them...this election has given us that chance.
Pray to the LORD above for the wisdom and strength to do His will. And consult His Word daily for that provision.
Thanks, LS.
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