Posted on 11/12/2016 4:51:31 PM PST by AC Beach Patrol
"...Wang has been the intrepid election data explorer furthest out this election cycle, never once wavering from his certainty of a Clinton win. The only real uncertainty left on Tuesday, he said, is how many people show up to vote. But even that doesn’t change the presidential election outcome...
So when the smoke clears on Tuesday; when enough non-white and female voters haven’t been harassed or intimidated enough to stay home; when Clinton crosses the finish line with something close to 300 Electoral College votes and a popular vote victory somewhere between two and five percentage points; and Nate Silver is telling his 1.7 million Twitter followers that he’d been right all along this election, Sam Wang will be standing tall above the fray, draped in his 'median-based probability election' cloak.
Long live the new election data king."
(Excerpt) Read more at wired.com ...
Dr. Sam Wang is a Cal Tech and Stanford educated quant who has worked wth financial investment companies. He confidently predicted that Hillary Clinton has a 99% chance of winning.
That's why quants are usually not billionaires like Trump, whose instincts are a thousand times better than a thorusand Stanford Ph.D. quants.
There is something particularly satisfying seeing those who are intel snobs totally WRONG in a very public mistake of their own making. As my mother used to say, “They think they are so smart they can hear grass growing.” This time they weren’t.
Wang got Shlonged!
He was right as a quant.
Every one expected Hillary to win.
No one foresaw a Trump upset. Even Trump’s own inner circle said Tuesday it would take an inside straight for him to win.
People were stunned when it happened.
He’s got WI, MI, PA, and FL wrong. Oops.
Well, Michael Moore kinda did.
And Scott (Dilbert) Adams, as best as I can recall, never doubted it.
“He confidently predicted that Hillary Clinton has a 99% chance of winning.”
Pulitico predicted 98%. Both losers.
So Wang got caught with his wang between his legs. Corey lewandoski, the first Trump manager got the legs needed to get to the middle and Steve bannon, finished the campaign brilliantly. Those 2 should be honorary Freepers for life, if there is ever such a thing.
My prediction map from two days before the election had Trump at 324, but that was before dipwad in Virginia get all those felons votes and I realized that VA was a lost cause even with the surging polls.
Based on past voting history, he was right at the time.
The future however cannot be predicted to a mathematical certainty.
Variables always exist as potential spoilers.
Looks like Wang was Wong.
Checked his site religiously. “How can anyone think this poll is ‘real’?” I’d say to myself again and again. (Ohio, SC, Ga...)
He treated each poll like it was Gospel.
No one foresaw a Trump upset. “
I did. I called this thing for Trump in September.
L
Will Sam’s bug dinner be crispy or chocolate covered?
https://www.wired.com/2016/11/trump-polling-data/
Trump’s Big Data Mind Explains How He Knew Trump Could Win
They stood entirely alone. From Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model to The New York Times‘ the Upshot model to the Clinton campaign’s own public projections, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Hillary Clinton would win. But for the past 10 days, Oczkowski says, the campaign saw a tightening in its internal polls. When absentee votes and early votes started coming in, his team noticed a decrease in black turnout, an increase in Hispanic turnout, and an increase in turnout among those over 55.
“The general political assumption would tell you that an increase in old votes is good, a decrease in African-American votes is good, an increase in Hispanic vote is probably troublesome,” he says. “We came to realize the way folks were polling in terms of their samples and who they consider likely voters, it’s probably been incorrect.”
So the Trump team reworked its models according to those early turnout figures and saw Trump’s chances skyrocket in Rust Belt states like Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin. “The rural vote is the story tonight,” Oczkowski says. “The amount of disenfranchised voters who came out to vote in rural America has been significant.”
“Even Trump’s own inner circle said Tuesday it would take an inside straight for him to win.”
It appears you never read The Art of War. Trump did. Sun Tzu said, when you are weak, appear strong, and when you are strong, appear weak.
Bannon/Conaway set a very specific strategy to focus on the four battleground core states. This would give them multiple paths to victory while Hillary only had one, which Trump cut off. To say his inner circle expected Hillary to win is a superficial grasp of what went on and ignores the facts.
Fine. Lets start TSLTGM Political polling and predictions. I had him at the exact same numbers. Had it not been for the felon vote we would have been spot on.
I saw a high end in the 350’s and a low end around 300. Realistically without the illegal immigrant and felon vote he could have surpassed 400.
Would have been another 84.
well he did eat the bug. Grasshopper i think dipped in honey.
Kellyanne Conway: Trump Has At Least Six Paths To 270
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