Some Interesting Internals from The Top Polls Used By RealClearPolitics

11/6/16 | OV

[OneVike]

I'm only grabbing information from the internal numbers of the questionable polls that bring into question the final average.




Makes you wonder about those who can't remember if they voted 4 years ago?











There are a few interesting things to note from the McClatchy-Marist poll above. Especially when you consider they under polled Republicans. If you recalculate the number you would find that Trump does much better against Hillary with men than she does with women which is skewed by the over sampling of Democrats. Plus when pollsters say college educated vs college uneducated, they mean those with a 4 year college degree vs anyone who does not have a 4 year degree. I cannot stress the importance of the fact that there are almost 80% more Americans who went to college but never graduated, or just received a 2 year degree compared to the number of Americans who earned a 4 year degree.










Finally, I believe that Trump will win the election by 3% to 5%. I have numbers that points to Trump winning Florida by 3%, and that he will come real close to barely winning in a couple other Battle Ground states, but I have not been able to make the formula to work as surely in them as it does for Florida. I have used my Florida formula all the way back to Bush in 2000 and it is a good one. However, it just won't work as consistently in other battleground state, and my head is too tired to try any more. Plus there is no time left for me to keep trying.

In nut shell, it has to do with the number of registered voters for each party in Florida, and a tried and true formula of 87% of the registered Democrats voting compared to 97% of Republicans who always vote. With such a close number of Dem vs Rep registered voters, Trump will carry the state by 3%, and possibly more if there are a substantial number of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump.

I tested the formula for 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012, and it works within .3% for all four Florida State elections. Not sure why it works that way in Florida and not in other states, but it does. Who knows, maybe it's a number the Democrats found and thus that is why they try to reach so many minority's in their push during their for long registration and early vote in order to steal the elections in Presidential election years.

[OneVike]

Let me know if you have questions, or if this is confusing, and I will try to answer them, as long as I stay up. I'm tired and I have much work to do tomorrow.

By the way, I am being forced into retirement. The business I worked for is shutting down because of Obamacare, California taxes, and regulations.

I'm only 60, and not ready to quit. I am getting a severance pay, but not sure how much yet.

Like everyone, I need Trump to win. Obamacare was the straw that finally broke by bosses back and bank. He cannot afford mine and others health insurance anymore. He held out and hoped things would change, but the last hit was too much for him, and he had to give it up. So before he ends up in the poor house, he had to close shop.

[OneVike]

Oh yea, take away the screwy polls and Trump is ahead by +3% over Hillary.

[2ndDivisionVet]

What kind of business was it and what did you do there?

[OneVike]

We made traffic timers. The computers that controlled the traffic lights.

small business that sold them to various state and countries.

Some day I will explain how my boss saved the American tax payers billions of dollars over the years by forcing down the cost of the controllers.

[rfp1234]

The Obambi voters are + 15 relative to Romney voters. That alone shoots these pollsters’ credibility down. They probably didn’t make an effort to get a representative sample from “flyover country”.

[rfp1234]

The 2% who couldn’t remember are either reluctant to tell the truth, or they just handed their absentee ballots to political operatives who filled them out for them...

[line drive to right]

Thank you for your hard work. It is very interesting. I’m with you, hoping Trump wins. .. But don’t get discouraged no matter what happens. I pray that you put your trust and hope in Jesus Christ. If you have accepted Him as your Lord and Savior, if you know that He died to pay for your sins and then rose from the dead, then you will have eternal life, joy and peace in Heaven. That - where we spend our eternity - is what matters most for anyone.

[BigEdLB]

I noticed this poll and mentioned this earlier. Trump +7 pop vote and 350 ev

[dp0622]

That’s 2 percent who didn’t want to say they voted Trump.

That just adds to his winning margin.

[HamiltonJay]

The polls are cooked so averaging the just averaged the cooking. Doesn’t show you reality.

Trump is winning this bigger than folks are willing to admit

Hell mos of tyes polls even cooked have nearly 10% or more not committed to anyone! That’s nuts

[pax_et_bonum]

I’m very sorry to hear about your forced retirement.

[LurkingSince1943]

I hope you are better at predicting this election than you are at picking football games.

j/k

Phantom Pherret

[OneVike]

He is my hope, without Him we are truly nothing more than a bunch of unredeemable deplorable fools.

[OneVike]

LOL

I thank God daily that he is not a fan of parity.

LOL

[Vermont Lt]

If the percentage of likely voters is 37% and 27% respectfully, it appears as though they polled the same percentage.

There have always been more registered democrats, so you have to show that in the “contacts”.

How did you come up with R’s being under counted?

[line drive to right]

Amen. That is good to hear!

[TomasUSMC]

IF....you like the killing of 1000 innocent babies before they are born every single day
vote Clinton
IF ...you like 70,000 factories going overseas and American workers being left unemployed
vote Clinton
IF.... you like America being a second rate Country, with no borders and its youth losing their jobs to illegals, and going to college and only coming out of it with debt and no job
vote Clinton
IF ... you like seeing thousands killed in Chicago, and the police being blamed and shot down in cold blood
vote Clinton
IF... you like higher taxes and seeing America pay the greatest terrorist country on earth, IRAN, 150 BILLION DOLLARS.
vote Clinton
-———ON THE OTHER HAND-———
the Country that fought off the dust bowl, the depression...that defended democracy against the German Nazi, against the Japanese Empire and then against the Russian Communist. That fought Jim Crow in the south at the same time fighting in Vietnam AND.... ...PUTTING 12 MEN ON THE MOON AND RETURNING THEM SAFELY TO EARTH. that was almost half a century ago and all the other countries on earth combined have not caught up yet.
why?
Because we were not afraid of leading the way.
IF.... YOU WANT TO LEAD
VOTE TRUMP.

[LurkingSince1943]

That’s 2 percent who didn’t want to say they voted Trump.

That just adds to his winning margin.

Trump was running in 2012?

Who knew?!?

[dp0622]

lol!! sorry...slinking away

[Former War Criminal]

We made traffic timers. The computers that controlled the traffic lights.

Can I get me one of them devices here?

I sit through 3 light cycles every day in my school bus, waiting for a green left-turn arrow.