[Viennacon]

This is my map right now

http://www.270towin.com/maps/QBwYY

Giving him Ohio and Iowa (no dem leads for a while and early voting for dems isnt promising there)

Maine’s 2nd for obvious reasons

New Hampshire because there is no early voting whatsoever, and people seem to distrust Hillary there in very high margins (disgruntled Bernie voters also in play).

For the swing states: Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina

No Wisconsin because I dont see a single poll with Trump up there, ever. New Mexico... polling is scant, but i can’t bring myself to believe it. Virginia is in tossup only after two polls put Trump ahead, but this one is the most likely to go to Hillary. North Carolina by similar margins i put closest to Trump. In order, from most likely Hillary, to most likely Trump

Virginia
Nevada
Pennsylvania
Florida
Michigan
Colorado
North Carolina

[Alberta's Child]

I think you've got a good sense of where this is going. I'd just make a few comments:

1. Your assessment of PA and MI seems strange. I would have thought MI would be more of a long-shot for Trump than PA. I can't envision a scenario where PA goes for Clinton and MI goes for Trump. If those two are split, I think for sure it will be the other way around.

2. Michigan is a stronger state for Trump than Florida is?

3. Pennsylvania and Michigan are stronger for Trump than Virginia is?

[grey_whiskers]

You're dreaming.

North Carolina is solid Trump. Period.<> Florida is solid Trump: last time, early voting (absentee + in person) gave I think almost 200,000 vote lead for the Dems; but this year with 3 days after today for early voting as of yesterday, the GOP was up by almost 3,000.

And national attention is focused on the voter fraud (sworn eyewitness affidavits) in Broward county.

Pennsylvania -- what does it tell you that Monday night, Bill and Hillary and Chelsea and Barack and Michelle, are ALL going to be in Philadelphia?

(Desperation.)

Michigan -- Drudge said tied as of yesterday. Couldn't find internals on the polls.

Colorado -- too close to call.

Nevada -- too close to call.

Virginia, -- too close to call.

But Trump is appearing in MINNESOTA (Minneapolis-St.Paul International Airport, in the Sun Country hangar) tomorrow. I suggest he is not as desperate as you make out, if he is showing up at the last minute, in a state even Reagan lost.