1. Your assessment of PA and MI seems strange. I would have thought MI would be more of a long-shot for Trump than PA. I can't envision a scenario where PA goes for Clinton and MI goes for Trump. If those two are split, I think for sure it will be the other way around.
2. Michigan is a stronger state for Trump than Florida is?
3. Pennsylvania and Michigan are stronger for Trump than Virginia is?
Virginia is now a statist hell hole.
PA and Michigan are DEFINITELY stronger for Trump than Virginia. I don’t fully trust the two polls we saw. Virginia has just been flooded with federal employees. It isnt an industrial state.
On the Michigan Pennsylvania split: I am basing this largely on the turnout operations in each state. Michigan’s democratic machine has decayed with Detroit. Absentee ballots for Detroit this time in 2012 were 12.5% higher than they are at present. We’ve seen similar polls out of both states calling the race a tie, but I’d bank more on an upset in Michigan than in Pennsylvania, owing to organization and Detroit performing worse than Philly for dems.