Posted on 11/01/2016 2:22:52 PM PDT by Kaslin
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RUSH: Let's go through the polling data that I mentioned. This is... Well, it's all interesting, and there are... It depends on how you look at these things, folks. I mean, I'm spotting trends. Other people are, too. Some people don't. It just... It's really hard to separate your desire, your prejudicial desire from static analysis of what's actually happening. But I can just tell you that where we are right now is not where anybody of expert status anywhere thought we would be.
But it is where a lot of people thought we would be. A lot of people on the Trump side -- a lot of people who are not part of the Republican or Democrat hierarchy in Washington -- always thought this was possible. And I can quote people from last fall who, before it was risky to make such a prediction, felt confident Trump could win this in a landslide back last fall. Now, I don't have those people saying that now.
But, I mean, the point is there have been all kinds of believers that Trump could win. You've had pessimists, too. I mean, you've had the Never Trump crowd beside themselves over any prospect of Trump winning. But I'm just telling you that where we are right now with the news and the way it's falling out and Donna Brazile being let go, and the New York Times exonerating Trump on Russia, and Obama not trying to savage Comey? This is not where anybody, particularly on the Clinton side, thought they would be.
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RUSH: Let's get to the actual polling data now. This is from the Politico. What have you heard about early voting? Let me ask you that before I get to this. I'm talking about specific early voting this year, what have you heard about it? Here's what you've heard. You've heard that the early voting is just skunking Trump. The early voting, the Democrat enthusiasm, why, it's not been seen anywhere near this throughout the campaign. Because it hasn't. There hasn't been any enthusiasm for Hillary. She can't draw crowds or any of that. But the early voting, the news is, oh, my God, the Democrats are dwarfing the Republicans in early voting. This is a phenomenon. And they're reporting it. The Drive-By Media is reporting it.
All over the country, Florida where we live, you wouldn't believe it, the stories day in and day out. The early voting, hardly any Republicans are voting at all in early voting, it's Democrats, and it's just, it's like nothing anybody's ever seen before. Well, Politico today: "Weak Early Voter Turnout Among African-Americans Hurts Clinton In Florida -- Black voters cast ballots in higher numbers in 2012 for Obama. Hillary Clinton has a black voter problem in the nation’s biggest battleground state.
"After the first full weekend of in-person early voting ended Sunday, African-American turnout failed to meet expectations -- or historic precedent -- leaving top Democrats and activists fuming or worried that Clinton’s campaign isn’t living up to the hype in Florida."
So they're admitting they have been hyping early voting, they have been hyping demographics of the early voting, particularly they've been talking about Democrat early voting and African-American and Hispanic and Latino early vote, it's off the charts, we've never seen anything like it, and now it's one week before, and it's time to start getting real. "The black vote is way underperforming compared to 2012." That is a quote from somebody named Smith. I've got the pull quote here. It's Dan Smith, University of Florida political science professor. Black vote way underperforming.
Yesterday we had Indiana in the Monmouth poll, Trump plus 11. Yeah, I know it's Indiana. Plus 11? Unheard of. Nobody expected that. Reuters: "Clinton holds five-point lead as FBI looks at more emails: Reuters/Ipsos poll -- Democrat Hillary Clinton held a five percentage point lead over Republican rival Donald Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Monday, down only slightly since the FBI said last week it was reviewing new emails. ... Clinton had held a 6 point advantage over Trump in the five-day tracking poll last Thursday."
However, if you move over here to the ABC tracking poll: "Trump Leads Clinton by 1 Point in New Poll as Enthusiasm Declines." She was up 12 in this poll on October 23rd. Now Trump is up by one. Is that really what's happened here? Has Hillary lost 13 points in this poll? That's what they want us to believe.
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RUSH: Just a couple of internal notes here from the ABC poll. Trump now leads Clinton by eight points in the share of voters who are very enthusiastic about their choice as of Friday, but compared to past elections it's low for both, 53% for Trump, 45% for Clinton. Trump is still beating her eight points on enthusiasm. Strong enthusiasm for Clinton has lost seven points since the start of tracking, especially Friday through Sunday.
So October 23rd she was up by 12. Today Trump is up by one in the ABC tracking poll. And how does that happen? Do we actually believe somebody can lose that much in, what, seven, eight days, 12 points? Maybe so with this WikiLeaks and then the FBI, who knows. But my real thinking is the first number, the plus 12, was never right. I don't think Hillary's ever been plus 12 over anybody at any point in this campaign. I just don't believe it. I'm not suggesting the polling has been purposely wrong. I just don't believe it's been accurate in catching public sentiment, for whatever reason.
Now, this this. This just in from Zero Hedge. The 25th WikiLeaks release of hacked emails of John Podesta. A new one has been discovered. March 2nd, 2015. This is an exchange between Podesta and Clinton aide Cheryl Mills, and this email says: "On another matter, and not to sound like Lanny, but we're gonna have to dump all those emails." That's Podesta talking to Cheryl Mills.
Now, this email happens at the same time that the New York Times ran the story about Hillary Clinton using a personal email account and a private server in her basement at home instead of the State Department servers. Almost at the same time there's an email from Podesta to one of Hillary's aides that says, "We are gonna have to dump all those emails."
What emails is he talking about? The same day the New York Times reports she's got a private server. The point here is that this email might actually go to intent! Podesta telling a Hillary aide we're gonna have to dump all those emails on her server.
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RUSH: Some polling data starting yesterday. We have Trump plus 11 in Indiana with the Monmouth University poll. We have Reuters/Ipsos, Hillary plus five. We have an ABC tracking poll, Trump plus one with vastly more enthusiasm on the Trump side than the Hillary side. And in this ABC poll, on October 23rd, Hillary was up 12. Today, Trump is up one. ABC News reporters are depressed and in a panic, as they report this today.
Interestingly, at ABC, on their poll, the breakout of their sample, 37% of the sample was Democrat, 27% Republican. So there's a lot more Democrats they sampled, and it was 37% or 36% independent. So of their entire sample, only 27% was Republican. Trump is up one.
And then this is new. Just in. "Donald Trump Surges To 12 Point Lead In Texas."
This is from CBS in Dallas. "Real Estate Mogul and Republican Presidential nominee Donald J Trump has surged to a twelve point lead in Texas over Former Secretary of State and Democrat nominee, Hillary R. Clinton in the latest KTVT CBS 11 Dixie Strategies Poll.
"If the presidential election were held today, 52 percent of likely general election voters said they would vote for Trump while 39 percent said they would vote for Clinton. This marks the first time Trump has polled over 50 percent in Texas and casts doubt on any Democratic victory on November 8."
But let's not forget something. Hillary was so confident of winning, she went to Texas a week or so ago. Do you remember the Drive-Bys all telling us that Texas was in play? All of these supposed red states are in play? Remember this last week? The election was already over, it was wrapped up, and Hillary and her team are going into all these red states to batten down the hatches to win the House and the Senate. They were going in there to nail Trump's coffin.
Just last week they were going to Texas and other red states because it was already over. Hillary was so far ahead in the general election polling that Trump had no prayer. That's what the media told us. So now we have Trump plus 12 in Texas, Channel 11 Dallas, the Dixie Strategies poll. There's something happening out there, folks. You just get this sense. I don't want to say any more than that.
I'm being brazenly honest sharing that with you. There are some who would say, "Don't go there yet," and that is a reasonable piece of advice, "Don't go there yet." But I'm just getting a sense, and it's based on real-world events. It's not based on what I want, not based on hope. I'm just telling you last week the Clinton campaign is acting like this is over and they're going into red states to win the House and the Senate.
Oh, and let's not forget, statistics on early voting in Florida -- Trump, by the way, up by a point in Florida now in a Fox News poll, I believe it is. But the early voting African-American turnout is way below what it was in 2012 for Obama. And Hillary cannot win without that. All last week they were telling us that the early voting enthusiasm is all Hillary, it's all Democrat. There's none of it out there for the Republicans. There's none of it out there for Trump.
Well, apparently there isn't all that much enthusiasm for her in Florida, plus 11 Indiana, plus 12 Texas. Now, those are red states. You would expect that to be the case, but Trump hadn't been plus 11 anywhere, any time, in the general election. And never forget that as we get closer to the actual Election Day, polling tends to tighten or get more accurate.
Something I had in the Stack yesterday, didn't get to it, Kellyanne Conway, the campaign manager for Trump, was looking at a poll. Remember that question that I pointed out to you in 2012 in the exit polls, when I saw it that I knew the election was over, "Cares about people like me." Obama won that 81 to 19 in the five p.m. exit polls, 2012, I saw that, "Cares about people like me," 81 Obama, 19 Romney, and then 60% still blame Bush for the economy, I said, "Okay, I don't need to watch the returns tonight, this is over if these exit polls are right," and they turned out to be.
Kellyanne Conway cited that question's still relevant, she said, and they have been polling it. The Trump group's been polling it, "Cares about people like me." And he and Hillary are tied on that question, according to a bunch of different polls out there. Romney was never close to being tied with Obama on that question, "cares about people like me," and I don't think there's any confusion as to why. That's, in fact, I think the essence of Trump's campaign. Cares about people like you. The other side doesn't, no matter what they say.
Now, there are other things here in the news in the Stack that I have had prepared since the program began, and I just want to start getting to this. I don't want to leave anything on the table today. I walked out of here yesterday feeling horrendously bad because there's so much I intended to impart and I didn't get to it just because of the way things fell out.
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None of the major stations will change their polls to reflect a Trump surge, they are trying to suppress GOP early voting.
Their owners stand to lose millions - if not billions - if she doesn't win.
They're very long Hillary. Now they're feeling a little sick.
Time to make the U.S. Constitution, the Bill of Rights and Old Glory GREAT again!
You got it.
I'll admit, I actually thought that the Clintoon would be 50 points ahead by now.
HAT TIP P.HENRY...as I read some of the Podesta emails, he, and those he corresponds with, are so smug, so self-important, so self-satisfied, so sure they’re part of the club even though they’ve never been elected to anything. It’s really quite disgusting.
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ANALYSIS The Clinton/Podesta coterie are part of a shadow government that runs our govt agencies ONLY for themselves and their cronies.
Really nauseating is hokey hillbilly Bill.....he seems to be laughing at the rest of us Americans who actually work for a living.
The buck-raking Clintons are the flesh-eating denizens of the DC swamp we need to drain......we need laws or amendments to the Constitutiion that say once you serve you go home....you can't use your former office to get rich or to form a shadow govt that excludes people you don't like.
Why would people vote for Hillary knowing it will be years of scandals? The country will suffer. She is selfish to continue running.
This is what happens when Hillary is forced to dump the lynchpin of her campaign, Huma Abedin. The result: the entire Hillary Clinton campaign is about to have a massive meltdown. I’m not even sure if she’ll make a concession speech if she gets thumped on November 8, 2016.
WaPo has a story questioning Trumps electoral chances (negatively). AZ & TX shaky for Trump, Clinton clearly ahead in NC, no chance in PA, MI, WI with FL basically a tossup. Polls showing Clinton ahead are cited, polls showing Trump ahead are ignored.
Oh woes is us.
Her concession speech will go like this: "launch all missiles in four minutes!".
Somewhere Huma will shake her head sadly.
ABC knows it can't get away with the propaganda anymore, so it's poll gets closer to reflecting reality. Its poll stills oversamples Democrats, so Trump is really up by around 5% in this poll.
Instead of conceding, she’ll be guzzling liquor on a flight to Qatar.
That does not surprise me one bit from the Washington Compost
At least
Oh great. Bill and Hillary Clinton could be spending their last days somewhere in the Persian Gulf.
You certainly come into every good poll thread to throw some wet blanket. Like a pattern.
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