Posted on 10/28/2016 6:22:34 AM PDT by rb22982
Registered Republicans are 7 percent ahead of their same-day totals for in-person voting, while registered Democrats are 8 percent behind their numbers from four years ago. Registered unaffiliated voters are 35 percent ahead of where they were four years on this same day;
Registered Democrats are 44 percent of the total ballots so far, with registered Republicans at 31 percent and registered unaffiliated voters at 25 percent. However, both registered partisan groups are below their same-day totals from 2012: registered Democrats are 7 percent behind, while registered Republicans are 2 percent behind. The surprise this year continues to be registered unaffiliated voters, who are running 32 percent ahead of where they were this same day four years ago.
Currently, whites are 72 percent of the total ballots, with blacks at 22 percent and all other races/unknown at 6 percent. White voters are 10 percent ahead of where they were from four years ago on this same day, while black voters are 20 percent behind and all other races/unknown are 30 percent ahead of where they were four years ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at oldnorthstatepolitics.com ...
Key Take-aways:
#1) Expanded polling sites yesterday did not change the trajectory of early voting (good thing).
#2) If this trend continues (ignoring Ind for now), Trump will net lose ~18-20k early mail in votes vs Romney/Obama, Clinton will net lose ~200k in early in person voting (lower AA turnout + increased rep turnout). Net, net early voting in NC is showing good signs for Republicans and bad signs for Democrats
#3) Independent turnout is up massively, and so far 85% of independents are white with ~51:49 f/m ratio which is a good ratio for Trump. Trump is currently polling 10-20% higher among independents than Clinton here.
If this trend continues, I predict Trump will win NC by 6-9% (Romney's 3% + early voting changes for parties vs 2012 + ~50k gain for Trump on increased independents vs Romney). This assumes election day in person voting is identical to 2012. If that mirrors in person early voting, Trump may win NC by 10%+. If we don't see a big AA turnout this weekend/early next week, I think NC may move to fairly safe Trump by next Wed/Thurs
I looked at this early and came to essentially the same conclusions as you. I doubt Trump will win by 6%, however. I think enthusiastic Republicans are contributing to the in-person voting and will cannibalize the election day voting. I think the trends are showing a Trump victory slightly larger than Romney’s.
The interest in racial identities in voting is understandable, but not particularly illuminating other than the historical fact that Blacks overwhelmingly vote Dim. However, it is those WHITE Dims, Independents and Commies who are willing to hand the White House to Mr. and Mrs. Clinton that will decide the election.
I am interested, but take cold solace in these early voting numbers.
Oh, I forgot to mention fraud.
This is going to be close, folks.
Oldplayer
The interest in racial identities in voting is understandable, but not particularly illuminating other than the historical fact that Blacks overwhelmingly vote Dim. However, it is those WHITE Dims, Independents and Commies who are willing to hand the White House to Mr. and Mrs. Clinton that will decide the election.
I am interested, but take cold solace in these early voting numbers.
Oh, I forgot to mention fraud.
This is going to be close, folks.
Oldplayer
Double click grrr%%%@@@
The decrease in AA turnout is huge, 20% fewer than in 2012 when Romney won the state by 3%. It will be interesting to see if the percentages change over the weekend. If the numbers hold, NC could move into safe Trump territory.
I think it probably does cannibalize a bit of same day voting, but keep in mind the decline in AA turnout we’ve seen so far will also likely occur on election day as well, more than offsetting it. And if trump picks up net 50-100k votes on Ind more than Romney, easily could be near double digits (In 2004 when Obama wasn’t at the top of the ticket, Bush won by 12% here and he wasn’t picking up nearly as many < $75k as Trump will).
That Hillary and the linebacker made their first joint appearance in NC tells me the Dems are not comfortable with where things are for them in that state.
If I were EVIL HILLARY I would ask BLM and NBP to set up confrontations and riots at polling booths in larger eastern and central NC cities: Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, Fayetteville, Wilmington. Then I would have DOJ set to investigate, with the usual MSM stooges nearby to report how Trump instigated all the racist violence against poor innocent blacks.
The data above had both non-racial and racial stats. Early Dem voting in person is -8% vs 2012 no matter what race they are while Rep is +7 and Ind +35% regardless of race.
North Carolina State Board of Elections if anyone is
interested in finding info about your local county.
Map shows type voting equipment used in each County
http://www.ncsbe.gov/webapps/redistrict/votingsystems.html
The margin of victory may be driven by the unaffiliated voters that are turning out 25-30% above the 2012 race. I also think Trump will do a little better among the AA population. I have had several black persons tell me their parents (especially fathers) would not vote for a woman. I’m thinking Trump may win by 4% but you may be right.
I suspect the Republican in-person early voter over-performance will continue to grow. Yesterday was the first day for the expanded number of polling places and many of these new polling places are in the suburbs. I live outside Winston-Salem and our polling place was packed yesterday.
Republicans did much better yesterday (the first day of expanding polling sites) vs 2012 than Democrats did.
If AA support returns to 2004 levels, it is a huge problem for Hillary, especially in states like Virginia. The Cook Report dud a study after the 2012 election, and found that had AAs voted at the same turnout as in 2004, Romney would have won the state. In other words, the increase in AA turnout to record levels was the margin of victory for Obama in 2012.
Yes, the AA vote will determine the election. Take Ohio, Romney won independents by +10. He still lost because of the inner city vote. I don’t how much Hillary will benefit as much as Obama.
The std. MSM news here is HRC of course up 4-6%... may be back firing and the less-than-motivated HRC’s are saying screw it I’m not standing on line for an hour as it’s in the bag anyway.
Ya, and even Oprah Winfrey said,”You don’t have to like Hillary to vote for her!” LOL!!
Voted early in NC yesterday.
Older black lady in front of me did not have an ID. Not required, but useful for convenienence.
While voting, a different older black lady answered her phone while voting, which is illegal.
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