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The margin of victory may be driven by the unaffiliated voters that are turning out 25-30% above the 2012 race. I also think Trump will do a little better among the AA population. I have had several black persons tell me their parents (especially fathers) would not vote for a woman. I’m thinking Trump may win by 4% but you may be right.

I suspect the Republican in-person early voter over-performance will continue to grow. Yesterday was the first day for the expanded number of polling places and many of these new polling places are in the suburbs. I live outside Winston-Salem and our polling place was packed yesterday.

If this trend continues, the only way Trump wins by as little as 4% is if Trump loses independents to Hillary (unlikely) or Trump only picks up 70% of Republicans and Hillary gets 88%+ of democrats (also very unlikely) or election day voting for Republicans is just a complete collapse (most likely of these 3 but no evidence of that based on early voting). Now - the trend could change, of course.

Republicans did much better yesterday (the first day of expanding polling sites) vs 2012 than Democrats did.