[rb22982]

Note: In NC, early in Person voting is ~65% of 2012 Dem vote and ~45% of 2012 Rep vote with mail ins adding another ~5% for each.

Key Take-aways:

#1) Expanded polling sites yesterday did not change the trajectory of early voting (good thing).
#2) If this trend continues (ignoring Ind for now), Trump will net lose ~18-20k early mail in votes vs Romney/Obama, Clinton will net lose ~200k in early in person voting (lower AA turnout + increased rep turnout). Net, net early voting in NC is showing good signs for Republicans and bad signs for Democrats
#3) Independent turnout is up massively, and so far 85% of independents are white with ~51:49 f/m ratio which is a good ratio for Trump. Trump is currently polling 10-20% higher among independents than Clinton here.

If this trend continues, I predict Trump will win NC by 6-9% (Romney's 3% + early voting changes for parties vs 2012 + ~50k gain for Trump on increased independents vs Romney). This assumes election day in person voting is identical to 2012. If that mirrors in person early voting, Trump may win NC by 10%+. If we don't see a big AA turnout this weekend/early next week, I think NC may move to fairly safe Trump by next Wed/Thurs

[wfu_deacons]

I looked at this early and came to essentially the same conclusions as you. I doubt Trump will win by 6%, however. I think enthusiastic Republicans are contributing to the in-person voting and will cannibalize the election day voting. I think the trends are showing a Trump victory slightly larger than Romney’s.

[oldplayer]

The interest in racial identities in voting is understandable, but not particularly illuminating other than the historical fact that Blacks overwhelmingly vote Dim. However, it is those WHITE Dims, Independents and Commies who are willing to hand the White House to Mr. and Mrs. Clinton that will decide the election.

I am interested, but take cold solace in these early voting numbers.

Oh, I forgot to mention fraud.

This is going to be close, folks.

Oldplayer

[oldplayer]

The interest in racial identities in voting is understandable, but not particularly illuminating other than the historical fact that Blacks overwhelmingly vote Dim. However, it is those WHITE Dims, Independents and Commies who are willing to hand the White House to Mr. and Mrs. Clinton that will decide the election.

I am interested, but take cold solace in these early voting numbers.

Oh, I forgot to mention fraud.

This is going to be close, folks.

Oldplayer

[mrs9x]

The decrease in AA turnout is huge, 20% fewer than in 2012 when Romney won the state by 3%. It will be interesting to see if the percentages change over the weekend. If the numbers hold, NC could move into safe Trump territory.

[lodi90]

That Hillary and the linebacker made their first joint appearance in NC tells me the Dems are not comfortable with where things are for them in that state.

[apillar]

It's obvious that that Hillary and crew are really worried about AA turnout in NC, why else would they be flying in the First Wookie every couple days to beg the AA base to “do it for Barack”?

[SteveH]

If I were EVIL HILLARY I would ask BLM and NBP to set up confrontations and riots at polling booths in larger eastern and central NC cities: Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, Fayetteville, Wilmington. Then I would have DOJ set to investigate, with the usual MSM stooges nearby to report how Trump instigated all the racist violence against poor innocent blacks.

[deport]

North Carolina State Board of Elections if anyone is
interested in finding info about your local county.

http://www.ncsbe.gov/

Map shows type voting equipment used in each County
http://www.ncsbe.gov/webapps/redistrict/votingsystems.html

[TrumpCoat]

They've been crowing that NC opening more polling stations yesterday will make up the Democratic difference. While there was a big increase in voting that affected the absentee/mail-in ratio making it slightly more favorable to Democrats, I see exactly zero change in the trendlines. It seems to be great.

[CriticalJ]

Voted early in NC yesterday.

Older black lady in front of me did not have an ID. Not required, but useful for convenienence.

While voting, a different older black lady answered her phone while voting, which is illegal.

[srmorton]

I have lived in NC most of my life and it has been reliably Republican for all of my voting years - except for 1976, the year in which I cast my first vote for POTUS for Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter narrowly won the state, and 2008. I am SO disgusted at the NAACP and their worthless president, Reverend James Barber. He and his organization have been lying about the great job Governor McCrory has been doing ever since he was elected in 2012 and they are the ones who are primarily responsible for the fact that the NC Voter ID law was overturned - just in time for them to try to steal the election for Hillary. I just saw a Yahoo article yesterday that Rev. Barber is threatening to contest the results of the election because the long lines that have been seen in the first few days of early voting were orchestrated to prevent AA from voting! In the 1976 election, my husband and I were living in Greensboro and I will never forget waiting in line for two and a half hours to vote.

[Jumper]

I voted one week ago on the first day of early voting, on Thursday afternoon. In the 4-prior elections, this polling station was nearly 95% black, but this time it was more like 60-40% Black-White, and nobody was talking at all - it was dead quiet in the line. Fayetteville NC is about 49-50% Black and rest is more like an international city with "Y'uge" mix of Fort Bragg foreign wives/families. Cumberland Co was about 65% democrat voters 20-years ago, but today the Pubies have closed the gap to pull even but independents represent about 38% or so.

I would say is going to win NC, and Ohio.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Thanks. Nice comprehensive report.

“black voters are 20 percent behind” jumped out at me. If “souls to the polls” doesn’t increase the AA numbers Bigly this weekend, NC maybe over.

[Calm_Cool_and_Elected]

Just got home from voting in Cary. Took about 30 min, line moved well.