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People's Pundit Daily: US Presidential Election Daily Tracking (T+1.6)
People's Pundit Daily ^ | 2016-10-16 | PPD

Posted on 10/16/2016 12:19:06 PM PDT by justlurking

Trump is holding -- yesterday was T+1.8.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
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To: SoFloFreeper
"And it MAY be "statistical noise", but I think we need to take every movement seriously."

"statistical noise" = "take seriously"

Annnnd, Gruber was right...

21 posted on 10/16/2016 12:58:12 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (PS - Vote Trump. Vote Coal.)
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To: StAnDeliver

I explained what I meant within the context of my environment...to use Gruber as a defense of your thesis is kind of vicious isn’t it?

I think an argument can be made that all who say, “No worries, just noise” are ignoring minute changes in the total lead.

Look, if Trump had a six or seven or ten point lead then a .2 move might be a lot. But for an already tiny 1.8 point lead, then 11% in one day seems like a lot.

Beat me up if you like, but I’m just trying to observe reality.

Believe me, if the lead Trump had were BIGGER, then I wouldn’t be inclined to post “not good” on such a small change. This doesn’t SEEM small to me considering the tightness of the poll.

JMHO.


22 posted on 10/16/2016 1:05:36 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: StAnDeliver

Fixing my previous post....

I explained what I meant within the context of my environment...to use Gruber as a defense of your thesis is kind of vicious isn’t it?

I think an argument can be made that all who say, “No worries, just noise” are ignoring large changes in the total lead. Why are they “large”? Because the lead is so small

Look, if Trump had a six or seven or ten point lead then a .2 move might NOT be a lot. But for an already tiny 1.8 point lead, then 11% in one day seems like a lot.

Beat me up if you like, but I’m just trying to observe reality.

Believe me, if the lead Trump had were BIGGER, then I wouldn’t be inclined to post “not good” on such a small change. This doesn’t SEEM small to me considering the tightness of the poll.

JMHO.


23 posted on 10/16/2016 1:07:56 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

If 11% in a day seems like a lot, why didn’t you excitedly highlight his 500% leap in the La Times poll? If crunching numbers over .0x of a movement is significant, be consistent.


24 posted on 10/16/2016 1:13:07 PM PDT by Rokke
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To: Rokke

I acknowledged it was good news! Do you want me to flip my lid?

I don’t think I flipped my lid over the lower number, I merely acknowledged it.

Why are you upset?

Here, if this will please you, allow me:

Good news.

Trump pushes lead 500% in one day!

Pray for America.


25 posted on 10/16/2016 1:20:30 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

You are talking .2 of a percent. The Margon OE is 10 times that big


26 posted on 10/16/2016 1:40:08 PM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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To: SoFloFreeper

Let me make this simple, and kind: You haven’t read the internals, and if you had read them, even then you would not understand them. God bless you.


27 posted on 10/16/2016 1:44:45 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (PS - Vote Trump. Vote Coal.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

0.2% is absolutely statistical noise. Doesn’t mean anything


28 posted on 10/16/2016 2:15:37 PM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT (Trump vs Media/Dems/Obamas/NeverTrumpers. Still winning!!!l)
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To: SoFloFreeper

It’s good.


29 posted on 10/16/2016 2:20:43 PM PDT by Rokke
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To: StAnDeliver

Can you address the post I made? How is it incorrect to use the margin of difference between the two candidates as the base from which to judge movements between that margin?

I get what one means by two Amish dudes being polled on different days—but the movement itself is real, is it not? Those two Amish dudes do not account for 11% of the polling sample do they? Maybe they do, but I’d be surprised.


30 posted on 10/16/2016 3:05:06 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: conservativepoet

I agree, Trump landslide on the way.


31 posted on 10/16/2016 3:38:38 PM PDT by TheConservativeParty (Let he who is without sin, cast the first stone.)
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To: justlurking

TTTT!

What are the internals of who was surveyed?


32 posted on 10/16/2016 3:46:19 PM PDT by Salvation ("With God all things are possible." Matthew 19:26)
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To: Salvation

Follow the link, and click on the Demographics and Enthusiam tabs.

They aren’t updated every day, but you can see the data for some point in the past week.


33 posted on 10/16/2016 4:39:05 PM PDT by justlurking
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To: Salvation

D+6 currently.


34 posted on 10/16/2016 6:24:53 PM PDT by BlueStateRightist (Government is best which governs least.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Do some reading, then come back.

A Statistics Primer:

https://ejournals.library.ualberta.ca/index.php/EBLIP/article/view/168/239


35 posted on 10/17/2016 4:57:46 AM PDT by Candor7 ( Obama fascism article:(http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/barack_obama_the_quintessentia_1.html)
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