Posted on 10/16/2016 12:19:06 PM PDT by justlurking
"statistical noise" = "take seriously"
Annnnd, Gruber was right...
I explained what I meant within the context of my environment...to use Gruber as a defense of your thesis is kind of vicious isn’t it?
I think an argument can be made that all who say, “No worries, just noise” are ignoring minute changes in the total lead.
Look, if Trump had a six or seven or ten point lead then a .2 move might be a lot. But for an already tiny 1.8 point lead, then 11% in one day seems like a lot.
Beat me up if you like, but I’m just trying to observe reality.
Believe me, if the lead Trump had were BIGGER, then I wouldn’t be inclined to post “not good” on such a small change. This doesn’t SEEM small to me considering the tightness of the poll.
JMHO.
Fixing my previous post....
I explained what I meant within the context of my environment...to use Gruber as a defense of your thesis is kind of vicious isn’t it?
I think an argument can be made that all who say, “No worries, just noise” are ignoring large changes in the total lead. Why are they “large”? Because the lead is so small
Look, if Trump had a six or seven or ten point lead then a .2 move might NOT be a lot. But for an already tiny 1.8 point lead, then 11% in one day seems like a lot.
Beat me up if you like, but I’m just trying to observe reality.
Believe me, if the lead Trump had were BIGGER, then I wouldn’t be inclined to post “not good” on such a small change. This doesn’t SEEM small to me considering the tightness of the poll.
JMHO.
If 11% in a day seems like a lot, why didn’t you excitedly highlight his 500% leap in the La Times poll? If crunching numbers over .0x of a movement is significant, be consistent.
I acknowledged it was good news! Do you want me to flip my lid?
I don’t think I flipped my lid over the lower number, I merely acknowledged it.
Why are you upset?
Here, if this will please you, allow me:
Good news.
Trump pushes lead 500% in one day!
Pray for America.
You are talking .2 of a percent. The Margon OE is 10 times that big
Let me make this simple, and kind: You haven’t read the internals, and if you had read them, even then you would not understand them. God bless you.
0.2% is absolutely statistical noise. Doesn’t mean anything
It’s good.
Can you address the post I made? How is it incorrect to use the margin of difference between the two candidates as the base from which to judge movements between that margin?
I get what one means by two Amish dudes being polled on different days—but the movement itself is real, is it not? Those two Amish dudes do not account for 11% of the polling sample do they? Maybe they do, but I’d be surprised.
I agree, Trump landslide on the way.
TTTT!
What are the internals of who was surveyed?
Follow the link, and click on the Demographics and Enthusiam tabs.
They aren’t updated every day, but you can see the data for some point in the past week.
D+6 currently.
Do some reading, then come back.
A Statistics Primer:
https://ejournals.library.ualberta.ca/index.php/EBLIP/article/view/168/239
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