Posted on 10/06/2016 11:52:17 AM PDT by UMCRevMom@aol.com
US National Weather Service Jacksonville Weather.gov/JAX@NWSJacksonville
The storm poses an imminent threat of tropical storm and/or hurricane conditions to SOME PORTION of the Warning area.
Heed the advice of Local officials. Be careful about rumors, erroneous social media posts and unwarranted speculation.
Major Hurricane Matthew Briefing Situation Overview
...THIS IS NOW A WORST CASE STORM SURGE SCENARIO...
Catastrophic Damage is Anticipated for Coastal Areas.
Major Hurricane Matthew is still expected to move DANGEROUSLY CLOSE the Florida First Coast and Southeast Georgia Coast Friday through Friday night into Saturday with catastrophic impacts expected along and near the coast.
A major hurricane has not impacted this area in 118 years, since October 2nd 1898. There is NO local living memory of the potential of this event. If a direct landfall occurs this will be unlike any hurricane in the modern era. . The western eyewall is expected to move along a portions of the coast with sustained winds 115 to 125 mph and gusts in the most affected areas! Winds will be higher in high rise structures in Downtown Florida possibly strong Category 4 to Category 5 intensity!
Some of the lowest barrier islands will be completely overtopped with large battering wave and life threatening flooding. Barrier islands are likely to breached and it is extremely possible that new inlets will be cut in the worst affected areas.
Please, Please heed the advice of public and emergency management officials. 40 people in New York and New Jersey did not heed these warning during Sandy and died in the storm surge! This will be a MUCH Greater surge than Sandy had along the New Jersey Shore!
You are going to have to move your zone of doom northward now. Vero beach passed peak. NW44G70 now. No hurricane there and won't be.
I vaguely noticed earlier that people saw winds much lower than was reported. Is it possible that the radar feed was tweaked?
In forecast:
” ... sustained winds 115 to 125 mph and gusts in the most affected areas!” [snip]
Is there any reasonable chance that such winds will kick up any time soon?
HILLARY: IT’S NOT MOTHER NATURE, BLAME MANKIND
‘Trump unfit’ to fight global warming.
But is Hillary fit to run FEMA or manage disaster relief?
Former Haitian Senate President: Clintons Exploited Haiti Earthquake ‘to Steal Billions ...’ [Hillary complicit]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3472018/posts
~~~
Clinton Foundation AIDS Program Distributed ‘Watered-Down’ Drugs To Third World Countries
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3471482/posts
NOAA: WE ARE NOT EXAGGERATING OUR STORM DATA!
http://www.popsci.com/dont-take-weather-advice-from-matt-drudge
“Don’t take your weather advice from Matt Drudge.”
I think she and Bammy ought to fly into the eye and dissipate the hurricane with the sheer force of their combined awesomeness.
The eye wall is still over the ocean and has much stronger winds than the sustained 50mph seen over land. Also the winds over land are in the opposite direction (north) from storm movement so that would be 64mph if the storm were standing still. But the big factor is the proximity to the eyewall and until that gets onshore we won’t see anything like 100+
So the eye could be Category 4?
I noticed earlier that people could see video feeds on islands where the wind was much lower. Were they in the eye?
The eye can be calm, in theory with no wind at all. The highest winds are in the eyewall surrounding the eye.
‘The storm is now low end cat 3.’
Thank you for the update.
As I always understood it hurricanes build power in the water and lose power over land. Why isn’t it building up power I wonder?
This hurricane is too free spirited. It’s going off on its own, refusing to heed the experts. So I hope people forgive my impish mood if things later get genuinely horrific.
’ ... dissipate the hurricane with the sheer force of their combined awesomeness ... ‘
Obama might help. He could whack it with his styrofoam Greek pillars.
But Hillary kind of needs a disaster right now. She doesn’t want to make the hurricane sick. Maybe if she could put a surgical mask on it?
Has to be completely over warm water to gain strength. The land does not have the required moisture. Even the salt water spray from the wind is part of the mix by contributing nuclei. Running parallel to the coast like it is doing will surely weaken it. The rate of weakening may vary.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes_(1950%E2%80%9374)#/media/File:Florida_hurricane_(1950-1974)_tracks.jpg
‘Has to be completely over warm water to gain strength.’
Ah! That makes perfect sense. Heat agitates matter.
Okay, so GOD has spared a great many lives.
He heard our prayers!
And at the same time he made fools out of many of us [me included].
Sometimes it feels good to find oneself helpless and at the mercy of a loving Lord.
FRegards ....
The Politics of Hurricane Coverage [Rush Limbaugh]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3477536/posts
Okay, folks, we’re in Los Angeles here as we have migrated. We have moved to the Left Coast in order to evacuate ground zero for Hurricane Matthew ...
It’s amazing the number of people who have looked at the this hurricane and think that it’s aimed right for where I live. And, of course, when these things happen... As I alluded to it yesterday, folks, I have become an amateur hurricane tracker. By no means do I suggest anything I say should be believed over the National Hurricane Center. I must... Actually I think you should, but I can’t officially say that ...
[I’ll post more specifics of his show to ‘all’]
.. Rush Limbaugh, continued ...
How many of you have been to Nassau?
It’s a beautiful place, don’t misunderstand. But it’s 150 years old. The buildings downtown are very old. Look, the maximum winds, according to people on the ground there that have been tweeting out — and, yes, people are still able to tweet out. They still got electricity. They still have the internet in Nassau despite this hurricane going through. Top winds, they said, were 85 miles an hour. Now, the forecast is for much higher than that. So somebody like me and those of us who live in Palm Beach, we look at that and we feel optimistic. We will feel hopeful.
Now, we also look at models, the hurricane models that predict in advance the track the hurricane will take. They never agree. They’re always all over the place. But as you get closer to ground zero, get closer to impact, they do get more accurate and they group together, and oftentimes the hurricane center will not follow what the model guidance is. So you say, “Okay, why?” I do. I ask, “Why do they not?” Well, let’s look at what’s happened here. Since — I don’t know — the last 24 hours... If you live in Florida you know this.
For the last 24 hours the reports have been, “Get the hell out. We have a storm that’s gonna hit the central coast of Florida that has never hit the central coast of Florida before in terms of this strong and this powerful.” So the evacuation orders have been given. The local Drive-Bys are inciting all the panic. They’re doing what they usually do. You can’t go to Publix and find any bottled water, for example. It’s been the case since yesterday. You see people in there staring at an empty shelf of water. You know, I didn’t see it, ‘cause I can’t do these kind of things anymore.
But I have spies who tell me these things. (chuckles) So maximum winds of 85 in Nassau yet we’re told to suspect 160-mile-an-hour winds. Well, what if it’s not gonna be as bad as they say? I don’t expect them to change. If the tracks in the models take it further away — and I’m talking about where I live. I mean, they can’t accommodate the entire state. It’s gonna hit somewhere, or it’s gonna hit closest to somewhere in Florida. So given where we live, that’s the focal point for us, obviously, being selfishness as we are, as anybody would be.
You look for track information that might say, “Hey, you know what? It’s not gonna get as close here as they think.” And you think you find it. Then you wait for it to be reflected, and it isn’t. Well, here’s one of the reasons why. The East Coast of this country... You’d be amazed at the percentage of the population in this country that lives on the East Coast near the water. It would stun you. A lot of people live in Florida and a lot of people in Florida on the east coast. A lot of people, therefore, have been tuning in, and they have heard every warning, everything said.
Well, if it’s not gonna be that bad, you wouldn’t expect the hurricane center to back off of it, because what if at the last moment it strengthens and they’re wrong? So even if it might not be as bad as they forecast, they’re not gonna say so. On the other hand, let’s say that they did. Let’s say that, in my case, the track... Let’s say I want to see it move east, and let’s say in the model runs I see it moving east, and I go, “Yay,” and then I look for the next hurricane forecast, and they’re not moving it east.
And I say, “Why not?” Then I stop and think. This where political comes into it. Okay, they’ve already got everybody feverishly pitched. If they move it further away and it doesn’t go further away, they are going to catch hell like they caught hell in Katrina. They didn’t do anything wrong in Katrina. They had the proper warnings. It was just that people didn’t hear them enough so the hurricane center got beat up after Katrina. That’s really the demarcation point.
Ever since Katrina, I think they do a risk assessment and figure it’s much better to forecast really bad and be wrong — if it doesn’t end up as bad, everybody’s happy — than to forecast, “Hey, folks, it isn’t gonna be that bad,” and it turns out to be bad. They’re gonna be hated and despised and defunded and all that. It’s a long way around saying that it’s... We all look for hope. We all try to find scenarios where it won’t be as bad, like I found the wind speeds in Nassau nowhere near where they were predicted to be. The damage in Nassau...
I’ve been looking for reports of catastrophic damage, structural damage along the path of this hurricane. Can’t find any. Doesn’t mean it’s not gonna happen in the future. Doesn’t mean it’s not gonna strengthen. So for us where we live, the worst point, according to forecasts, eight p.m. ‘til two a.m. tonight. Now, they’re focusing... Here’s another anomaly. The hurricane center is telling us to look out for winds of 130 and gusting to 150 or higher. You get the National Weather Service forecast, and the maximum winds are 97 miles an hour.
You say, “Yay! Okay, cool.” But then you wonder, “Who’s right here? Are they talking to each other?” Who knows what some of the others do? Why...? So you start imagining all of this. Now, I know some of you hearing this saying, “What do you mean, politics?” Folks, I have been trying to convince everybody who listens where the government is concerned — and the hurricane center is part of the Commerce Department, and so is the National Weather Service. In fact, that’s 80% of what the Commerce Department does is the weather.
You know that every cabinet department in our government has been politicized. It’s undeniable. But some people don’t understand it. They don’t get it. They don’t think politically; therefore they don’t see it. Let me give you an example of how this has been politicized. After Katrina, remember, Algore and all the global warming people? They were happy! They were beating their chests like Tarzan out there, and they were saying, “This is just the beginning! Because of climate change and because of global warming, we’re gonna have hurricanes like this every year, many of them.
“It’s going to be devastating! It’s going to destroy coastlines. Miami will be destroyed!” All of that. And for the next 11 years, not a single hurricane. So global warming became “climate change.” There hasn’t been a single hurricane that hit Florida, not a major one, in 11 years. Now this one comes along, and they’re all excited! “We got crisis! We got doom and gloom, and we have our climate change issue.” And if you think that I’m wrong, let me tell you what happened. I mentioned this to you yesterday.
There was a rumor, a story about an MSNBC reporter turned out to be true.
Ron Allen — a major, major credentialed Drive-By Media reporter working for NBC News — had been there for years. He was on MSNBC the Late Show, and he was talking about the upcoming United Nations “interpanel governmental” whatever it is on climate change. And he said... He gushed about how Obama believes so deeply in protecting the environment, and that this U.N. climate change deal marks one of the most significant aspects of Obama’s legacy, because deals like this are designed to stop hurricanes like Hurricane Matthew.
So here you have an NBC reporter. Does he know better? Is he really this dumb or ignorant to think that a piece of paper signed by a bunch of leftist nerds at the United Nations means the end of hurricanes? Because somehow that piece of paper signifies action that major governments are gonna take to affect climate change. They have been predicting the end of the world since 1980. There hasn’t been any significant warming in the last 15 years. That’s the thing I’ve been asking myself, for the last 48 hours (that’s two days, for those of you in Rio Linda) we’ve been tracking the direction of this hurricane.
And it’s been changing. Every six hours, the hurricane track forecast changes, and it’s different somewhere along the track. So I’m saying, “Why can’t we get a consensus of scientists to tell us where this thing’s gonna hit in the next 12 hours is? If we’ve got a consensus of scientists that tell us in 50 years there isn’t gonna be Miami, in 50 years the sea levels are gonna rise, in 50 years we’re gonna be scorched and roasted because the temperatures...
But we can’t find a consensus of scientists that can tell us where this hurricane’s gonna be in two days, and now we have an NBC reporter actually suggesting to people — and the danger here is, how many people believe this? We have a crisis of stupidity in this country that is born of the defects in our public education system for two generations now. So here we have an NBC reporter lauding Obama and his great, great work on climate change. By the way... I will not lose my place here.
Did you see Obama yesterday said that he’d met with the Joint Chiefs, and the single greatest national security threat this nation faces is climate freaking change? It’s not Saturday Night Live, folks. It is real-life American government, and Obama’s out there saying — and he’s got these Joint Chiefs. They gotta go along with it or they don’t continue to rise their career ladder. And then he went on and said... Somebody said it, it might not have been Obama. Somebody said, “Yeah, yeah, yeah! This war in Syria? Climate change! Climate change has had the number one impact on the war in Syria.”
Really? Climate change is firing the bullets? Climate change?
Obama: Climate change agreement is our best chance to save the planet
“Well, no, Mr. Limbaugh. Climate change is dictating the movement of the refugees.”
Oh, you mean they’re trying to escape Syria ‘cause it’s so hot, not because bullets are flying?
“Exactly right, Mr. Limbaugh. Now you’re getting it. Climate change is causing all of these immigrants to leave Syria.”
Oh, it’s not the war, it’s not the gas attacks, it’s not that?
“No, no, it’s climate change!”
We got people telling us this. Now we’ve got people telling us that if we sign this United Nations climate change deal, and this is gonna be like the third one, the aim is to stop hurricanes like Hurricane Matthew. It’s just... It boggles my mind. This is the first hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. Hurricane Wilma also went over my house. That was a Category 2. There wasn’t any of damage. There was some trees down. It’s obligatory you lose power, lose the phone lines for a while.
But there wasn’t any structural damage, and that was 2005. So that’s, what? Yep, 11 years ago. But, gee, if we’d’a just signed that climate change deal last week, this hurricane would have quit! You know what? The hurricane would have seen that the UN had finally gotten serious and would have just dissipated, or it might not have even formed in the first place. Don’t accuse me of being sarcastic. I’m telling you, that’s exactly what they want you to believe, that if the UN had taken action, hurricanes like this can be stopped.
[snip]
The Politics of Hurricane Coverage
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3477536/posts
8:00 Hurricane Matthew at Titusville (horizontal from Orlando)
140 miles from Jacksonville. My daughter in Orlando lost internet.. her lights have flickered but others folks in area have lost electricity out. Folks in Brevard County that refused to evacuate are asking to be rescued now: roofs blew off!
Hurricane Matthew decreased to Cat 3 & has wobbled 100 miles off-shore. Eye has enlarged expect to reach Jacksonville at 5:30-10:30. Highest winds winds expected hour before 4-7:30 pm.
FRIDAY 8:00 a.m. Hurricane Matthew now at Titusville (horizontal from Orlando) 140 miles from Jacksonville. My daughter in Orlando lost internet.. her lights have flickered but others folks in area have lost electricity out. Folks in Brevard County that refused to evacuate are asking to be rescued now: roofs blew off!
Hurricane Matthew decreased to Cat 3 & has wobbled 100 miles off-shore. Eye has enlarged expect to reach Jacksonville at 5:30-10:30. Highest winds winds expected hour between 4-7:Appears to me greatest impact Myrtle Beach & Charleston, NC pm.
Matthew is expected to slowly weaken some more during the next 12 hours or so while the cyclone completes the eyewall replacement
cycle. By 24 hours and beyond, more significant weakening is
expected due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical
shear increasing to more than 30 kt and entrainment of very dry
mid-level air with humidity values less than 20 percent. The new
intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.
Special thanks to the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters for their tireless efforts in having already completed more than 90 center or eye fixes.
Hurricane MATTHEW Forecast Discussion
US Dept of CommerceNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Hurricane Center 11691 SW 17th Street Miami, FL, 33165nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
nhc.noaa.gov
Thanks for the update!
I collect seashells, so on the Bright Side there will be some AWESOME eBay buys in the near future. ;)
He's unfit to fight unicorns, too. They would rip huge holes in his $3,000 suits. :)
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