Posted on 09/26/2016 8:23:42 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
Clinton chance of winning: 51.8% Trump chance of winning: 48.2%
(Excerpt) Read more at projects.fivethirtyeight.com ...
The other problem is the Establishment polling firms are using the 2012 turn out model. Anyone really think Hillary will turn out minority voters the way 0 did?
Finally incumbency. Hillary is 0 “third term”. An incumbent needs to be 5-10 points ahead to feel comfortable since last minute deciders usually vote against the status quo or do not vote at all. The exception to this was 2000 when the Bush DUI story broke right before election day.
Tie game is advantage Trump. The Left is going to have to find the Mother of all Oct Surprises to have any chance to save Hillary failing campaign.
boom!
I wonder how this is being received over at DU?!
now cast is at 55% Trump!
62 ▼ Clinton to 37 ▲ Trump on Betfair @1200 EST.
Because there is this phenomenon “shy Trump voters” noticed during the Primaries.”
Has there been a thorough study of this? I’d like to see the numbers on this. I wonder, was it consistent throughout primaries?
And I also wonder....is a shy voter more likely to be in primary? Or general?
I would sort of assume general....b/c there are undoubtedly some dimocrats who are voting Trump. I would assume they are extremely shy!
“Clinton chance of winning: 51.8% Trump chance of winning: 48.2% “
And yet the odds are STILL 3-2 against Trump on the legal, real-money betting site predicit.com, where they’ve been unmoved to for weeks. Easy money?
Define “winning”.....
..and Trump gets 20% or MORE of that vote?
We are talking about a potential blowout here.
Yes, fair point.
when I say winning when referencing these prediction models, it is with reference to who this 538 blog is predicting to win....based on today’s data.
(Clearly, there is no true winner till the votes are in.....:))
Agreed - my point was really being made against the author who gave the percentages that have to be based on polls that will change a bit over the next 6 weeks.
yep
these are snap shots in time.....time will tell if they are a trend.....
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