The other problem is the Establishment polling firms are using the 2012 turn out model. Anyone really think Hillary will turn out minority voters the way 0 did?
Finally incumbency. Hillary is 0 “third term”. An incumbent needs to be 5-10 points ahead to feel comfortable since last minute deciders usually vote against the status quo or do not vote at all. The exception to this was 2000 when the Bush DUI story broke right before election day.
Tie game is advantage Trump. The Left is going to have to find the Mother of all Oct Surprises to have any chance to save Hillary failing campaign.
Because there is this phenomenon “shy Trump voters” noticed during the Primaries.”
Has there been a thorough study of this? I’d like to see the numbers on this. I wonder, was it consistent throughout primaries?
And I also wonder....is a shy voter more likely to be in primary? Or general?
I would sort of assume general....b/c there are undoubtedly some dimocrats who are voting Trump. I would assume they are extremely shy!
..and Trump gets 20% or MORE of that vote?
We are talking about a potential blowout here.