Posted on 09/20/2016 5:10:59 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
Even in California, Hillary Clinton has slipped.
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
California isn't a battleground state. It is essentially conceded to the Democrats. But, it is a good state to compare the new multi-state polls that have popped up this year to more traditional polls. The new multi-state polls are, for many states, the only source of polling information we have. Plus, some of them involve surprising results. We'd like to know what, if anything, we can conclude based on the new multi-state polls.
These results for California are from the Field Poll, a well-established, live-called poll. I contrast its findings with others of the past two weeks:
TRADITIONAL POLLS: Field (live-caller) 31-50 Hillary +19 Moore Information (live-caller) 31-52 Hillary +21 SurveyUSA (automated caller) 32-57 Hillary +25
NEW POLLS: LAT/Survey Monkey* 29-49 Hillary +20 Ipsos 24-63 Hillary +39 ! Ipsos (last week) 32-60 Hillary +28 Google Consumer 26-43 Hillary +17 Google Consumer (last week) 28-44 Hillary +16 *not to be confused with the WP?Survey Monkey 50-state poll of a couple weeks ago
Two of the three new multi-state polls deliver results in line with those of the traditional polls. In terms of margin, Ipsos is the exception. (Google Consumer, which doesn't push undecideds as to which candidate they 'lean,' has a lot more undecideds.) Ipsos WAY overstates Hillary's support. Nate Silvers really loves the Ipsos multi-state poll. While I like that Ipsos is providing breakouts of its huge weekly poll by state, I have some concerns with it (more so than with polls in general).
Obviously Hillary needs to run even more TV ads in California..hee..hee..hee..
Hillary is gonna win CA by double digits.
Trump isn’t bothering to campaign there. He has zero chance of flipping the Golden State.
At best, he could keep the margin of Hillary’s win there close.
Meanwhile where is she?? The closet candidate or should I say the bedridden. She is in deep doo doo and should be out there. Could be health, could be she just can’t get the crowds. Could be the “pajamas media” which they made so much fun of, is a lot more sophisticated now, and catches her every lie.
I’m still completely shocked Hillary won California.
I saw Bernie support absolutely everywhere I looked.
I didn’t see the tiniest drop of support for Hillary Clinton.
now I distrust crowd sizes.
No state should have that great an effect on the percentage of electoral college
They have 55???
The AVERAGE of most other states (under 20) is about 6
California should be split into 2 states
The reason California is conceded to the democrats is because over half the population is a member of a protected class and a quarter are illegal mexicans.
State Number of Electoral Votes
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 11
Arkansas 6
California 55
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
District of Columbia 3
Florida 29
Georgia 16
Hawaii 4
Idaho 4
Illinois 20
Indiana 11
Iowa 6
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 8
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 11
Michigan 16
Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6
Missouri 10
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 14
New Mexico 5
New York 29
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 18
Oklahoma 7
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 20
Rhode Island 4
South Carolina 9
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38
Utah 6
Vermont 3
Virginia 13
Washington 12
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3
CA is Deep Blue, overrun by liberals in SF and LA.
The rural counties on the desert side go GOP but they have no effect on the outcome.
CA has been a solid Democratic state since 1992.
If Maine and Nebraska (the only two states that do so) split their electoral votes, it makes absolutely no sense to allow California to exert such dominance. Somehow, those 55 electoral votes ought to be awarded on a proportional basis by congressional district.
I bet Trump would carry much of the central and southern parts of the state (Los Angeles to San Diego) which would serve to offset her heavy advantage up north towards San Francisco,
Wish there was some realistic chance that Trump could swing New York! He is the true favorite son, who has a solid record of accomplishment. She was/is nothing more than a carpetbagger who sold them all down the river.
I believe that if he made two or three swings through the state, he could be competitive in California. By that I mean him showing up his two or three times, doing a couple of events each time. The buzz would serve him well, and I think it would serve the state well too.
As per usual, the wonderful political advisors have told him not to bother.
I think that is a big big mistake.
It would be an interesting constitutional amendment to establish a maximum number of electoral college votes for a state (perhaps 20).
If California were satisfied with dropping down to 20 EC votes, then nothing would change. But if California wanted to split into 3 or 4 smaller states, then they could still contribute 55 EC votes, just in 3 or 4 bundles.
As a small government guy, I like the idea of small states (I’m not talking about square miles).
There is also the advantage of having a “state” the size of Los Angeles having to be somewhat self-sufficient. Would they feel the same way about new immigrants? Welfare programs? Federal mandates?
Sorry, it would be nice for Trump to have rallies in California but it makes no sense as far as the big prize is considered. He has to get to 270 electoral votes and California won’t be among them. Trump needs to concentrate his time in the following: 1) Florida; 2) Ohio; 3) Michigan; 4) Colorado; 5) Maine; 6) New Hampshire; 7) North Carolina; 8) Iowa; and 9) Nevada. And maybe a day or two in Wisconsin and Rhode Island, as a feint. He has to carry most of these states and has a very good chance in each; he has no chance of carrying California.
“Meanwhile where is she??”
What do you think the “fundraisers” really area? Excuses to stay away from really public appearances? Can she fundraise herself into the White House?
And Watts and Oakland.
I think California (39 million people) should be split into four states (each with 9 or 10 million people):
1. Los Angeles (equal to L.A. County) (capital Los Angeles)
2. San Francisco (equal to bay region) (capital San Francisco)
3. South California (capital San Diego)
4. North California (capital Sacramento)
South and North California would be competitive in President and Senate races. Los Angeles and San Francisco would be irredeemable. By splitting California into four states, each state would evolve a viable two-party system. South and North California would have the Rep. v. Dem. politics. L.A. and S.F. would have the Dem. v. Far Left politics. By splitting California into two states, each part would be the same, politically, as the whole.
Value of an individual vote under the Electoral College relative to a vote using Direct Election:
State | ECV/DEV
Alabama 103%
Alaska 228%
Arizona 102%
Arkansas 116%
California 85%
Colorado 107%
Connecticut 112%
Delaware 199%
D.C. 301%
Florida 88%
Georgia 95%
Hawaii 158%
Idaho 144%
Illinois 91%
Indiana 94%
Iowa 127%
Kansas 116%
Kentucky 104%
Louisiana 105%
Maine 165%
Maryland 97%
Massachusetts 101%
Michigan 93%
Minnesota 106%
Mississippi 110%
Missouri 102%
Montana 159%
Nebraska 151%
Nevada 128%
New Hampshire 166%
New Jersey 95%
New Mexico 132%
New York 90%
North Carolina 97%
North Dakota 236%
Ohio 93%
Oklahoma 107%
Oregon 103%
Pennsylvania 91%
Rhode Island 210%
South Carolina 105%
South Dakota 197%
Tennessee 98%
Texas 84%
Utah 110%
Vermont 250%
Virginia 94%
Washington 93%
West Virginia 144%
Wisconsin 97%
Wyoming 281%
Example: a vote in Wyoming is worth 3.3x that of one in Texas ... reducing Texas’ overwhelming 45-to-1 voter advantage over Wyoming to 14-to-1.
(I computed this a few years back. Exact numbers may have shifted a bit.)
But she is running ads there.
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