California isn't a battleground state. It is essentially conceded to the Democrats. But, it is a good state to compare the new multi-state polls that have popped up this year to more traditional polls. The new multi-state polls are, for many states, the only source of polling information we have. Plus, some of them involve surprising results. We'd like to know what, if anything, we can conclude based on the new multi-state polls.
These results for California are from the Field Poll, a well-established, live-called poll. I contrast its findings with others of the past two weeks:
TRADITIONAL POLLS: Field (live-caller) 31-50 Hillary +19 Moore Information (live-caller) 31-52 Hillary +21 SurveyUSA (automated caller) 32-57 Hillary +25
NEW POLLS: LAT/Survey Monkey* 29-49 Hillary +20 Ipsos 24-63 Hillary +39 ! Ipsos (last week) 32-60 Hillary +28 Google Consumer 26-43 Hillary +17 Google Consumer (last week) 28-44 Hillary +16 *not to be confused with the WP?Survey Monkey 50-state poll of a couple weeks ago
Two of the three new multi-state polls deliver results in line with those of the traditional polls. In terms of margin, Ipsos is the exception. (Google Consumer, which doesn't push undecideds as to which candidate they 'lean,' has a lot more undecideds.) Ipsos WAY overstates Hillary's support. Nate Silvers really loves the Ipsos multi-state poll. While I like that Ipsos is providing breakouts of its huge weekly poll by state, I have some concerns with it (more so than with polls in general).
Obviously Hillary needs to run even more TV ads in California..hee..hee..hee..
Hillary is gonna win CA by double digits.
Trump isn’t bothering to campaign there. He has zero chance of flipping the Golden State.
At best, he could keep the margin of Hillary’s win there close.
I’m still completely shocked Hillary won California.
I saw Bernie support absolutely everywhere I looked.
I didn’t see the tiniest drop of support for Hillary Clinton.
now I distrust crowd sizes.
No state should have that great an effect on the percentage of electoral college
They have 55???
The AVERAGE of most other states (under 20) is about 6
California should be split into 2 states
The reason California is conceded to the democrats is because over half the population is a member of a protected class and a quarter are illegal mexicans.
State Number of Electoral Votes
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 11
Arkansas 6
California 55
Colorado 9
Connecticut 7
Delaware 3
District of Columbia 3
Florida 29
Georgia 16
Hawaii 4
Idaho 4
Illinois 20
Indiana 11
Iowa 6
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 8
Maine 4
Maryland 10
Massachusetts 11
Michigan 16
Minnesota 10
Mississippi 6
Missouri 10
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 6
New Hampshire 4
New Jersey 14
New Mexico 5
New York 29
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 18
Oklahoma 7
Oregon 7
Pennsylvania 20
Rhode Island 4
South Carolina 9
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 38
Utah 6
Vermont 3
Virginia 13
Washington 12
West Virginia 5
Wisconsin 10
Wyoming 3
Hillary is spending heavily on TV ads in California... I am not sure why she is doing so, if California is so heavily liberal...
I heard on the news this morning, on the radio, that Hillary is now competitive in Georgia and Arizona. One poll has her leading in Arizona by +1. People in both states will come to their senses before Nov. 8.