Posted on 09/09/2016 9:04:41 AM PDT by Kaslin
The GWU Battleground Poll published on September 9 shows Donald Trump a clear path to victory: win the conservative vote. The data in this poll has been consistent over the last two decades, and the data in the latest poll is no different. The overwhelming majority of Americans are self-identified conservatives.
The September 2016 Battleground Poll shows that 54% of all Americans are self-identified conservatives and only 38% are self-identified liberals, which means that if the tiny "moderate" 3% and the equally tiny "unsure/refused" 4% are excluded, then the conservative candidate would beat the liberal candidate by a landslide of 58.7% of the vote. If the two groups of ideologically unclear voters broke even for the two candidates, then the conservative candidate would win "only" by 57.5% of the vote.
The GWU Battleground Poll looks at the conservative and liberal breakdown of America nationally. Gallup has actually analyzed the conservative and liberal breakdown of individual states, and, as in the Battleground Poll, Gallup has tested this data over and over in many polls over many years. The results are the same.
In the last Gallup Poll that broke down the ideological split of each of the fifty states, conservatives outnumbered liberals in every state except Vermont, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. Consider the huge conservative advantage in percentage points in those states identified as key for Trump: Michigan (+11.6), Pennsylvania (+12.3), Arizona (+12.8), Virginia (+13.4), Florida (+14.0), Wisconsin (+14.4), Ohio (+16.3), Iowa (+17.3), North Carolina (+19.5)...and so on.
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(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
If conservatives would just vote...
“Michigan (+11.6), Pennsylvania (+12.3), Arizona (+12.8), Virginia (+13.4), Florida (+14.0), Wisconsin (+14.4), Ohio (+16.3), Iowa (+17.3), North Carolina (+19.5)...and so on.”
What will stop Trump:
1. 125% Philly
2. 125% Detroit
3. 125% Raleigh
4. 125% Cuyahoga County.
What do these 4 areas have in common? Bring that 125% down to the correct turnout and a Democrat will never win another election.
it’s crap.
these are “self-identified” conservative numbers.
Trump is certainly not a philosophical conservative in the mold of Reagan but in a relative sense, compared to Shillary, he’s to the right of Goldwater.
If ‘conservative’ means patriotic Americans with a minimum of common sense, Trump has already won their vote......Hillary, as President, will forever end traditional America,....... forever!
Anyone who hasn’t figured that out by now has another agenda...
Compared to Hillary, Trump is to the right of Genghis Khan.
Trump’s big advantage is that Conservatives know for sure which day is election day...
“If conservatives would just vote...”
Actually there are stories out that some people are voting who have not voted or not voted recently. I think this bodes well for Trump and why IMHO the polls are not correct.
how about an ongoing FR war room thread that is dedicated to Get Out the Vote and early voting?
I don’t think Trump will let this happen. One reason Mitt lost is he had a GOTV app screw-up. Trump has his own freaking app for all these processes. Mitt had establishment people that weakly challenged voting problems at locations and were ejected. Trump’s people will probably try to have precinct workers arrested if denied access to voting locations.
And many of these folks are young male 20-somethings that don’t give a f*** about how they’re viewed by others.
Florida R primary 2008 1.7 M 2016 2.4 M
Florida D primary 2008 1.8 M 2016 1.7 M
No one is ready for this because Dems look at polls and Trump voters hang up on pollsters. The wave is coming.
I was just interviewed by a telephone pollster on my cellphone.
The lady apologized for calling and told me she would be as quick as possible. I braced for the worst and held on to the connection. The lady proceeded to ask me some background demographics questions, including what my name was (they already knew), how likely I am to vote, party affiliation (I imagine they knew this also), and how many cell phones were in the house. (This was in mid-day; I have been more or less excluded from the job market since Obama’s first term.)
All of the sudden, the interview was over! The lady thanked me for my time, wished me good day, and hung up.
Very odd...
I’ve heard that too - as well as overall voter enthusiasm, where Trump also seems to have the edge.
Hopefully all 2.4M (and then some) show up...
Depends on the definition of ‘conservative.’
Apparently there are pro abortion, pro gun-control, pro open-borders / amnesty types who call themselves ‘conservative.’
For some reason.
Trump is certainly not a philosophical conservative in the mold of Reagan but in a relative sense, compared to Shillary, he’s to the right of Goldwater.
***
Though if we’re talking about the platform Trump is running on, it’s the most conservative we’ve had since 1984.
For those raised in conservative homes, conservatism seems to be innate.
However, for those who discover conservatism on their own (those not having had a decent upbringing), it is often a journey (e.g. they get mugged, or finally look closely at their pay stubs, etc.). For these I cut a little slack - as some folks are just a little slow to figure things out.
Where conservatives often fail is not letting other (potential) conservatives “come to Jesus” in their own time. Too often we are guilty of rejecting “the good” - simply because it is not “the perfect”.
So this election cycle, I’m happy to welcome folks into the tent if they simply recognize that Clinton is evil. If they can figure that much out, the rest (pro-life, 2A, etc.) may eventually come.
Bottom line: we need every swinging d@ck we can get (like they say in the Corps)!
/waxing philosophical...
I don’t find these sort of polls reliable. The problem is self-identifying. We need something far more objective such as asking key questions on positions. I find that most people THINK they are more conservative than they really ARE. GWB I imagine thought of himself very much as a right leaning conservative when clearly he was not. Same with liberals. Most liberals think of themselves are MODERATES, and many if not MOST moderates think of themselves are CONSERVATIVE.
Precisely.
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