Posted on 08/31/2016 6:44:57 AM PDT by usafa92
Some have suggested that Donald Trump has hidden support among voters who are unwilling to say publicly where they stand because they’re fearful of criticism. We won’t know for sure until Election Day, but Republicans are clearly more reluctant than Democrats this year to say how they are going to vote.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 17% of Likely Republican Voters are less likely this year to let others know how they intend to vote compared to previous presidential campaigns. Just 10% of Likely Democratic Voters say they are less likely to tell.
Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 25% say they are less likely this year to say publicly which presidential candidate they will vote. Unaffiliateds have leaned in Trump’s direction in recent weeks in our White House Watch survey but also have been the biggest supporters of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Clinton and Trump have been running nearly even in our surveys for weeks. When either of them takes a lead, it’s generally been within our +/- 3 percentage point margin of error.
Fifty-two percent (52%) of Democrats say they are more likely to let others know how they intend to vote this year, compared to 46% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Democrats, 32% of Republicans and 38% of unaffiliateds feel about the same when it comes to declaring their vote publicly as they have in past presidential election cycles.
The reluctance among GOP voters to speak out also may be due in part to the divisive primary battle that led to Trump’s nomination, with many establishment Republicans publicly rejecting the party’s chosen nominee. Sixty-six percent (66%) of Republicans believe that most top GOP leaders do not want Trump to be elected president of the United States. But only 27% of Republicans now believe the political attitudes of the party’s voters match up with those of party leaders.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 25 and 28, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]
Most major media outlets have been strongly critical of many of Trump’s comments and positions. Voters continue to strongly believe that the media is more interested in controversy than in the issues when it comes to the presidential race. Among voters who support Trump, 76% think the media is blowing up his comments out of proportion. But 80% of Clinton supporters say Trump is careless with his comments.
Fifty percent (50%) of all voters think most reporters will try to help Clinton with their coverage, while only 11% believe they’ll try to help Trump.
Men are a bit less likely this year to say publicly whom they will vote for.
Voters under 40 are more likely than their elders to be holding back their Election Day choice. This is a potential area of worry for Clinton since younger voters are essential to her win.
A plurality (47%) of blacks say they are just as likely this year as any other year to say publicly how they are going to vote. Whites and other minority voters are more likely to let others know.
Twenty percent (20%) of both conservative and moderate voters are less likely to reveal their choice for president this year. Only 10% of liberals say the same.
A majority of voters believe the media, not the candidates, are setting the agenda this presidential election cycle.
Despite heavy criticism by Clinton and by the media, Trump’s recently announced plans for restricting immigration from terrorist countries and for ending U.S. nation-building efforts in the Middle East are supported by most voters.
After initially supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership, Clinton under pressure from primary rival Bernie Sanders came out against the new trade deal endorsed by President Obama. Trump has long been critical of the TPP, NAFTA and other major free trade agreements, saying they have hurt the economy and taken away U.S. jobs. Voters are not big fans of these free trade deals, and Trump is hoping to peel away younger Sanders supporters from Clinton’s camp.
Generally speaking, when it comes to national security, the economy and other major issues, voters expect Clinton to continue Obama's policies and Trump to change them, for better or worse.
The economy remains the number one issue for all voters this election cycle, but Republicans are a lot more worried about national security than Democrats and unaffiliated voters are.
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
well. I got polled last week, and I confirmed I would vote for state republicans, but refused to say I would vote for Trump.
So there is that. But the win last night for McCain was very disheartening.
My head tells me this “hidden vote” for Trump is just wishful thinking but my heart fervently hopes it’s true.
It is wise not to count on some “hidden vote”. Rasmussen has not been a very good pollster recently either.
100% anecdote.
Connecticut Senate Candidate stumping in heavy Dem urban section of his district. Goes to door with Trump sign, and as he is allowed to place his sign next to the Trump sign, four neighbors came outside, all saying how much they like Trump.
Again, completely anecdotal.
I think Trump will clobber her Royal heinous. But I also don’t think I’ll yell it from the hilltops. After McCain and Romney I’m cautious.
Rasmussen was the guy who NAILED Romney’s huge victory in 2012~!! THis is BIG
Am I a coward? Maybe.But the point is that *nobody's* ashamed to admit support for Hillary (although they should be) while at least some are reluctant to admit (but not ashamed of) supporting DJT.
Popular vote, 1964. LBJ 61, Goldwater 38. Just sayin’
I’ve talked to absolutely no one who would vote for Hillary and I talk to people everywhere I go. BTW, I live in a Liberal state.
The new development in CT cities (in the last few years) is the number of women wearing Muslim garb—that has taken a lot of folks by surprise but has not been publicly discussed anywhere (that I have seen).
The only poll that counts is the one on election day. This entire election comes down to 5 cities. Philly, NYC, Cleveland, Miami and Richmond.
Trump needs three of them.
Given that the national union leadership is pretty much out for sHrILLARY, were I a union member receiving a random phone call there would be no way on God’s green erf I would tell them I was a Trump supporter. Who knows if the union was counting heads via a faux poll and I might never work again.
Look at the crowd from last night in WA:
[Popular vote, 1964. LBJ 61, Goldwater 38. Just sayin’]
There were huge factors at work in that election.
From a sympathy vote to LBJ’s consummate abilities as a longtime pol to the scumbag country clubbers in the GOP like Milt’s father.
“...refused to say I would vote for Trump.”
Why?
as long as we keep the seat. He’s the vote getter.
After 2 terms of dim 0 in office historically it is time for a change which is a tidal force hard to buck but you are correct to be cautious. If I had to bet money I would go with Trump but it’s far from a lock.
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