Posted on 08/15/2016 11:44:24 AM PDT by drewh
Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.
Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz's "Time for Change" model done for the University of Virginia's Center for Politics "Crystal Ball" shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.
He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.
"Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory," Abramowitz added.
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(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...
Nice
the popular vote does not select the president.
I don’t buy any poll at all; again, Conservatives are most likely to not answer a poll for fear of repercussions.
So the Libertarians and Green idiots are not going to get a single vote? You may color me skeptical.
Huh? Sabato has been all over, IIRC, saying Trump is losing the Electoral college by landslide proportions.
I don’t like these kind of predictions—one way or another.
Don’t set yourself up as the victor or depress yourself as the loser.
Pray, vote, persuade in a winsome manner why Trump is better than Hitlery.
We rely too much on “experts”. They’ve gotten us in trouble.
Yup. That’s about how I see it.
That 47% that always votes FREE SH*T will continue to vote FREE SH*T even if their nominee is having convulsions on the stage at her rally.
Add 1% for the #NeverTrumpers and others too afraid of being labeled RAAAAACISTS.
Trump will win, but it won’t be a runaway landslide.
These riots in Milwaukee are all but assuring that.
And register!
I believe Trump’s message resonates with people who haven’t felt included in the political process for years...and many of these people may have moved since last voting, or otherwise fallen off the rolls. Persuade...and ask if the person is registered/knows where to vote.
Later in the article:
“However, in an unusual move, Abramowitz is throwing his own model under the bus and suggesting that Clinton will win because Trump is so different from past presidential candidates and has such high unfavorability ratings that his election forecast basics can’t be trusted.”
I tHink Sabato agrees with the popular vote total projections, the possibility still exists that the electoral college could get messed up. I’ve seen some 269-269 state combinations out there, which would then go to House or Senate
Pray, vote, persuade
a new Julia Roberts movie...? Can’t wait...
Everyone is ‘always correct’ until they are not. I’ve seen numerous ones on the other side too. Since the left controls the media and can spin any story they like over and over, even if Trump is up by 5%, they can still overcome him, and I’m not even talking about voter fraud, which is also expected.
“I’ve seen some 269-269 state combinations out there, which would then go to House or Senate.”
That woujd be interesting, very interesting.
There would be good chance that neither Trump nor Clinton would emerge as the winner.
LOL...there’s nothing more to say, just capital LOL...
that’s what Im afraid of, Paul Ryan cuts a deal with Hillary Rotten for trillions of porkulus spending in the first 100 days
Same here. Ask a different person in a different specific demographic and you already know the answer to the question. The results can be manipulated so easily only idiots would believe them and they do.
Is that with the fraud factored in?
I tHink Sabato agrees with the popular vote total projections, the possibility still exists that the electoral college could get messed up.
a long time ago Larry Sabato and his group had Clinton winning the EC 347-191, Trump losing North Carolina from the Romney haul...
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