Posted on 08/11/2016 8:37:58 AM PDT by blam
Jeff Berwick
August 11, 2016
We are at an incredible moment in history.
US stock markets are at nominal all-time highs. Government bonds are at or near all-time highs. Yet, central banks worldwide sit at 0% interest rates or less because things are too precarious to even raise rates a paltry 0.25% for fear of collapsing the entire system.
In “traditional” economics this makes no sense. But we are far out of “traditional” now… we are in the extreme end-stages of a collapsing system. When that happens, nothing makes sense from a traditional/normal perspective.
In the third quarter of 2015, during the end of the Shemitah year, world stock markets had their worst quarter since the last Shemitah year in 2008… and then they bounced back up. In January, world stock markets had their worst starting month to the year in history… and then they bounced back up. And, most recently, the day after Brexit, which was 7 days, 7 weeks, 7 months and 7 years since the Shemitah end day in 2008, world stock markets again had their worst day in history… and then bounced back up.
Of course we notice the numerical repetition. None of this is happenstance, surely. It is clear we are onto something; and thus we continue to expect massive volatility and crashes. We predicted them and they arrived as scheduled. We’ve seen three crashes in the last year with massive volatility. And, volatility is usually a sign that something is terribly wrong.
The final crash, the biggest “black swan” ever and subsequent economic depression, surely will be worse than anything that has gone before. Post-crash, expect additional and deeper warfare as those behind these disasters will need to create organized violence to maintain control of society as....
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at marketoracle.co.uk ...
I’ll take a Black Forest ham and Swiss on rye instead. With a bit of Gulden’s.
No, we can't totally dismiss the notion that Trump is regarded as someone with whom deasl could be struck -- but that perception isn't necessarily bad or possibly unprincipled, is it? Could work in our favor for those on the fence and those who had planned to totally screw us, but might only do so half way -- a net gain for our side of 50% ;-)
I think you have pretty much summed up my thinking in this regard. In the last seven months, I have come to a realization that this very same dynamic was at work in 1860, and is what actually triggered the civil war...
("Global Trading interests", which on the Eastern seaboard meant mostly "European Trade")
In that context there is a tangible parallel, isn't there? Economic and sovereignty considerations are at stake. Today's Globalists are trying to maintain their monopoly and stranglehold on trade policies -- just as back in 1860 (when the battle over "European Trade" was the issue.)
That is a most interesting observation about the war of 1860.
Mein doppelganger—during the home mortgage lending meltdown the feds bailed out Bear, Lehman, Goldman Sachs, Deutsch bank and others, while the American taxpayer took it in the shorts.
When they have to bail *themselves* out, and start running the cash printing presses at Ludicrous speed, that’s when the SHTF.
That’s when we find we have re-financed our colossal debt with our last credit card, when the rest of the world decides that having the dollar as the world currency reserve just isn’t working out.
The last time it changed, from the pound, was after WWII.
A survey of 200 institutional investors - 100 headquartered in mainland China and 100 outside of it - found 53 percent of investors think the renminbi will surpass the U.S. dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. You can say that 50% were Chinese, but we can only spend as Obama has spent, while producing nothing but barristas and service workers for so long before the bottom falls out.
Sailing away on the thin ice of another new day.
Marketoracle blog has predicted 50 of the last zero black swan events.
They are on a roll.
Do these guys do end times prophecy too?
You won't see a better, more detailed and documented overview and fascinating perspective anywhere.
DL, perhaps you can give mutzi 1961 some guidance on the subject. Thanks.
At this point, Trump appears to be the far better bet for us. Hillary is unequivocally evil and ruthless.
In that context there is a tangible parallel, isn't there? Economic and sovereignty considerations are at stake. Today's Globalists are trying to maintain their monopoly and stranglehold on trade policies -- just as back in 1860 (when the battle over "European Trade" was the issue.)
This is what I am seeing. It's just gotten bigger since 1860. It is now more of a global international group of elite who disdain nationality and borders. They are loyal only to themselves and their pursuit of power.
The only thing of which they are certain is that they should rule everyone else, and that they should acquire as much wealth and power as possible.
Not Lehman.........
What a curious mix of "news" and a religious tradition.
I am also disappointed and puzzled that Nassim Taleb is not identified in the excerpt.
He is the originator of the term, "Black Swan." I thoroughly enjoyed both editions of his eponymous book.
OK.
I read the entire article at the link, and the term "Black Swan" is never defined.
For those who have not read or discussed Taleb's book, a Black Swan is an event with two characteristics :
1) It is a negative, profound, universal, has a domino effect never anticipated or even imagined, and...
2) After it occurs, all the pundits and experts claim that the event was so obvious it should have been anticipated.
Taleb is/was an economist.
They orchestrate nothing. They are parasites that live off the constant flow of money into markets. They would be hurt the worst by the event. Once the money flow stops they lose their lucrative income and power. The government doesn't want to orchestrate this because then there would be all new people to deal with on wall street and the big fund raisers in the Hamptons would be run by completely different people.
So this event would happen despite the government and the bankers.
Think about it the last event in 2008 half the investment firms on Wall Street should have gone belly up. There should have been a fire sale on houses in the Hamptons. Instead the Feds sent them trillions so they wouldn't have to create a new Rolodex card.
LOL!
Not that it couldn't be foreseen, but rather that it isn't viewed in retrospect. The same thought occurred to me.
By definition, then, when it occurs it must be defined as a Grey Swan?
You've got to read the book to learn why the title was so chosen.
So you don't believe that there has been a 30+ year bond bull market?
How could he know about it if it was truly a black swan event?
I will admit that I may have a fundamental misunderstanding of “the bond market”. I don’t follow it. I would think that as interest rates go up the yields on bonds would also rise. I was remembering in the early eighties my brother had a T bill that was paying 15%.
I remember that period.
I had a 13% mortgage...
Other than the book that you mention, has this theory found an outlet for public consumption? University papers? Online discussions? Obscure Web sites? Anything at all?
Believe me - I'd really like to know!
Thanks!
CA....
I remember it, too.
Bought my first car at 17 1/4...
CA....
I am awaiting George Gilder’s new book in the mail in hopes he will lay it out, but not really.
I have a friend who is a finance prof (holds a chair) at Columbia and told him this. He did NOT dismiss it, but like all academic economists wanted a bunch of micro research first.
I admit this kind of flies between other the classical and Meynesian theories. Some monetarists try to focus on the lack of velocity in money, but I see that as a symptom, not the cause. The cause is deflation brought about by inaccurate valuation of productivity increases.
Just because they are parasites doesn't mean they didn't have the clout to be considered "TO BIG TO FAIL" -- THE reason Dubya and Congress reimbursed these same Wall St parasites with Middle Class wealth back in 2008.
Why wouldn't DC repeat this dirty deed, again citing the "TOO BIG TO FAIL" mantra? ? After all, WHO has been donating big time to Hillary's Clinton Foundation? WHOM does Wall St. pay on both sides of the aisle as insurance for their screw ups? Yup, DC politicians.
The government doesn't want to orchestrate this because then there would be all new people to deal with on wall street and the big fund raisers in the Hamptons would be run by completely different people.
The names may change, but The Game remains the same.
Think about it the last event in 2008 half the investment firms on Wall Street should have gone belly up. There should have been a fire sale on houses in the Hamptons. Instead the Feds sent them trillions so they wouldn't have to create a new Rolodex card.
Exactly. You seem to be making my point. Wall St is tied to the hip with DC. The Game has been exposed; DC ordered the printing presses to run OT to bail out Wall St the last time the market collapsed, NOT Main St. They Fed will simply do it again.
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