Posted on 08/01/2016 8:07:08 AM PDT by usafa92
Hillary Clinton has received a bump in support after the Democratic convention and has now pulled ahead of Donald Trump.
Forty-six percent of voters nationwide say they'll vote for Clinton in November, while 39 percent say they'll back Trump. The race was tied last week after the Republican convention. Clinton led by a similar margin in June. Clinton got a four-point bounce after her party's convention, compared to a two-point bump for Trump after his convention.
When compared to previous Democratic presidential nominees, Clinton's bounce is similar to those President Obama got in 2012 and 2008, but short of the 13-point bounce her husband, Bill Clinton, received in 1992. In 2000, support for Al Gore rose 10 points after the Democratic convention, but he went on to lose a close race that fall.
When leaners are included - voters who are undecided when initially asked their vote preference but lean toward a candidate - Clinton leads Trump by six points. Clinton also retains her lead when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is added. Voters who back a candidate remain firm in their support. Nine in 10 Clinton and Trump voters say their minds are made up about their candidate.
In the wake of the Democratic convention, positive views of Hillary Clinton have risen five points among registered voters, from 31 percent a week ago to 36 percent today. Unfavorable views of Hillary Clinton have dropped six points: from 56 percent to 50 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
Whew. That was close. Thank God somebody thought to take the flags down from Philadelphia government buildings and display them inside the Convention hall.
Yep...tuned in to FNC and they were all over this. I turned them OFF!!
That’s funny no Jill Stein,just a over site I’m sure
It’s astonishing they talk like this is a regular race. They really believe that they can convince everyone that Hillary is a viable candidate by lying about her support numbers.
There’s just NO WAY. She doesn’t have the far left, they’re still angry about Bernie. Independents think she’s an immoral liar and would never vote for her. Then there’s the tiny group of morons that will actually vote for her because she’s a woman. I see people showing public signs for Trump - I’m yet to see ANYTHING for Hillary. Where’s the bumper stickers?
Lies bigger than Everest.
It is becoming very apparent that Faux News has gone over to the dark side. That fact and my burning desire to pull Juan the Juanker Williams thru my TV screen to slap some sense into him has caused me to eliminate Faux News from my TV viewing list.
That really does look like a Chairman Mao outfit.
“Yep...tuned in to FNC and they were all over this. I turned them OFF!!”
That’s exactly what we should all do to any media source that publishes polls that show Hillary in the lead. After a a sustained boycott, they will publish polls that show Trump and only Trump leading.
We are seeing peak Hillary now. It is all down hill from here for the Witch of Chappaqua.
Well people, you can go ahead and dismiss polls you don’t like as “biased”, and you can treat polls that you do like as proof that Trump will win in a landslide. However, I think that’s a dangerous game to play. The fact is this will be a nasty campaign, and we need to fight for every vote right up until election day. Don’t take anything for granted. Don’t assume anything. Don’t assume the polls are wrong because you don’t like the numbers. Every time you see Hillary with a goofy look on her face, don’t assume she’s having a seizure and will drop out for health reasons. Many assumed she would drop out after being indicted over her emails, but that didn’t happen, did it? Hillary is in the race to stay, and she’s in it to win it. Stay vigilant. Stay on offense. Don’t let up until it’s over.
This oversamples Ds by 4, plus you have the old “registered voters”-—but with ALL of these polls, the total sample is much bigger, i.e., about 200 larger of “adults” of which “x” are registered voters.
So what is being concealed here is what % of the “final” sample are “adults.” If 10%, that’s big.
Either way, I think right how this is pretty much a tie-—but again, that’s based on 2012 turnout models. Does anyone think Cankles will get the same turnout as Barry? Obama got 66m, Romney 61m.
Can Cankles get 66m? I seriously doubt it. Can Trump exceed 61m? Based on primary turnout, you’d have to guess these numbers will at least be reversed.
No, it’s about 4.2. Good, but he has dropped three straight days (somewhat expected) and if my prediction holds up, he’ll plateau at about 3.5 ahead.
I thought it was more of a Nurse Ratched look.
Not to put a damper on it, but there weren’t very big crowds for Obama in 2012 either compared to Romney, but we know how that turned out.
Big crowds are indicative of intensity of support, but not necessarily depth of support.
Like Brexit, we should have just shut up and accepted what polls said. Remove cranium out of anal orifice my friend.
I’m not saying we should accept all polls at face value. I just know in the last two elections there was a lot of whistling past the graveyard with “Oh, these polls are crap,” which unfortunately turned into, “Ugh, I guess they were right.”
That is a very good question. Has Hillary peaked? That 41% is the die hard base. Show me her rising above that 41% or she is in deep trouble which I hope for.
Dana is just as annoying on The Five. For now, I will stick to old shows on You Tube to replace my watching live news.
I see people showing public signs for Trump - I’m yet to see ANYTHING for Hillary. Where’s the bumper stickers?
I live in DuPage County, what used to be a republican stronghold in the Chicago suburbs. I’’ve seen a few Bernie signs, and saw a Ted Cruz bumper sticker yesterday, but I’ve seen nothing in terms of signs in neighborhoods that have always been lined with them. People are embarrassed by both candidates.
I understand a frustration with poll analysis. But there are some things different this time and surely you aren’t immune to them:
1) When both Suffolk (PA) and ABC (national) say IN THEIR SAMPLE that they asked for the “youngest [voter] in the home” that is a clear skew toward Ds, no matter how you view it.
2) When Reuters says publicly it wasn’t happy with its own results and is going to deliberately skew its methodology to be more in line with what it “expects,” ditto.
However, leaving polls aside, you only have to ask yourself one question: will Cankles get Obama’s 2012 vote of 66m? Will Trump only get Minion’s number of 61m? The answer is no. Cankles will be lucky to hit 60, Trump will likely eclipse 66 based on primary turnouts.
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