Latest poll shows Clinton leading by 5% where they over-poll Dems and women and under-poll whites

Orleytaitzesq.com ^ | 7/6/2016 | Orly Taitz

[GilGil]

The latest Economist/YouGov poll claims that Clinton is leading by 5%, however, when you look closely, you will find that the poll is being manipulated to fit the narrative. 1.In 2012 72% of the voters were whites and majority of whites historically prefer Republicans and prefer Trump by a large margin. 2.However, the poll had only 68% of whites which skewed the results in Clinton’s favor 3.The poll had 51% of women to 49% men, skewed towards Clinton 4.The poll had 7% more Democrats than Republicans, even though according to Gallop there are only 3% more Democrats 5.In 2012 60% of the voters were married. Married people tend to vote more for Republicans. The poll had only 46% of married people, so it was skewed towards Clinton 6.In 2012 there were only 41% of voters, who’s family income was less than $50,000, they vote more for the Democrats. In the poll there was a huge, 54% of voters with less than $50,000 income, so in this category the poll was skewed more towards Clinton 7.So, based on all of the above, in reality, with true demographics, Trump is probably leading Clinton by a small margin 8.Democratshttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/40khyk3nw4/econToplines.pdf

[GilGil]

Very interesting analysis. Basically the polls are reflecting what the latest polls are saying that Trump may be up 3-5% on Hillary.

[ConservativeDude]

Forgive me for this, but how do we “know” they are oversampling Dems?

I heard this in 2012.

And before that, I heard this in 2008.

As it turns out, however, in both instances the polls showing obama in the lead were correct.

So I’m skeptical of this line of argument, but would like to be better informed as to why this oversampling might be the case.

[Grampa Dave]

Thanks Timestax!

[jmaroneps37]

Very nice analysis since it goes into subtle factors that are generally missed by the average person.

[GilGil]

Forgive me for this, but how do we “know” they are oversampling Dems?
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The poll had 7% more Democrats than Republicans, even though according to Gallup there are only 3% more Democrats.

[Mr. Lucky]

C’mon. It’s from Orly Taitz the most serious minded dentist-lawyer in America.

[Voluntaryist]

Because Trump isn’t McCain or Romney

and

Crooked Hillary isn’t Obama.

[GilGil]

C’mon. It’s from Orly Taitz the most serious minded dentist-lawyer in America.
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Seriously! That is ignorant!

Did you even bother to check out her facts. They are spot on. Seems you shouldn’t be taken seriously!!!!!

[DJ Taylor]

What??? They didn’t poll cemetery Democrats?

That would have really thrown it to Hillary.

[fortheDeclaration]

Hillary isn’t going higher then her 42% Democrat base.

[GilGil]

What??? They didn’t poll cemetery Democrats?
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That includes cemetery dems!!!

[TMA62]

Another factor is that the GOP primaries we up 60% in voters. For the dems, it was down 20%. The Sanders camp is not on board 100% either.

Given the lack of enthusiasm that Hillary has, I question the oversampling of dems in 2016 is accurate.

[GilGil]

Hillary isn’t going higher then her 42% Democrat base.
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Interestingly Newt said the same thing several times that she will hover between 38-42 and will do no better.

[Lopeover]

Hillary Clinton for President of Benghazi!

[nwrep]

How dare you question FR’s birthright argument against the polls - that they oversample Dems? Don’t you know this is the Orthodox Creed of the FR Intelligentsia?

[GilGil]

Another factor is that the GOP primaries were up 60% in voters. For the dems, it was down 20%. The Sanders camp is not on board 100% either.
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The Sanders camp has said that 30-50% of his voters will not vote for Hillary. That translates to 4-8% of overall democrats voting. If that is true Hillary is dead. Add to that all the other factors like 60% more pubs and 20% less dems and a huge majority of white men for Trump etc. and Trump is going to do the same thing he did in the primaries.

First he was barely noticeable then out of nowhere he pulled out in front.

By October trump will appear as if he is running unopposed and his candidacy and the word landslide will go hand in hand.

[LongWayHome]

29% of those polled said they are not registered to vote ! They polled 34% D & 24% R....this is an agenda poll.

[LS]

I agree. This is so far shaping up to be a big Trump win. To get Cankles up by 5, they have to oversample Dems by 10. This is also “adults” (add another point or two to Trump) and doesn’t begin to address voter enthusiasm.

[GilGil]

How dare you question FR’s birthright argument against the polls - that they oversample Dems? Don’t you know this is the Orthodox Creed of the FR Intelligentsia?
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I’m just a junk yard mutt and don’t know any better but I am very clear on which side my bread is buttered. It’s on the Trump side.

[DungeonMaster]

The poll has to reflect the dead vote and the multi voters and the illegal vote.