172 of 2,472 delegates
(118 bound)
Posted on 04/25/2016 9:14:02 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
172 of 2,472 delegates
(118 bound)
2) In Pennsylvania, 17 of the state’s 71 delegates go to the state winner, which barring a YUUGE upset will be Trump. The remaining 54 delegates are directly elected and are technically not bound to a candidate. However, a number of these delegates have vowed to support the winner of the district.
3) The magic number in Connecticut is 50%. If Trump takes a majority of the vote, he gets the entire 28 delegate slate. Should Trump fail to reach that number, the 13 statewide delegates will be split proportionally, subject to a 20% floor. The winner in each of Connecticut’s five (5) Congressional Districts will take the three delegates per district.
4) Delaware (16 delegates) is Winner Take All and should be an easy victory for Donald Trump.
5) Maryland (38 delegates) is the most intriguing of the contests of the night. While polling indicates that Trump should win the state and it’s Winner Take All 14 statewide delegates handily, the race by Congressional Districts for the remaining 24 delegates (8 districts times 3 delegates) may not be a clean sweep. Kasich and Cruz could potentially siphon off anywhere from one to perhaps four of the CDs for a 3-12 delegate pilfering.
6) Ironically, it’s the state that Trump is expected to do the best in that he will likely garner the fewest percentage of a state delegation on Tuesday. Rhode Island allocates nine (9) of it’s 19 delegates with a strange formula that favors participants rather than the winner.
Unless Trump gets over 66.7% of the vote in each of RI’s two CD and statewide, the Congressional Districts and the RNC delegation will be split three-ways with Trump, Cruz and Kasich each getting 3 delegates apiece. The only twist on this is that Cruz will lose a delegate to Trump if he fails to meet the 10% floor. This is unlikely given the polling data.
Ten (10) delegates are apportioned statewide with a 10% floor. However, those delegates favor the winner of the night as any whole number is rounded down.
For example, if Trump gets to 61-percent as PPP suggests, he will get 7 of the statewide delegates, with Kasich getting 2 and Cruz 1, even though Kasich finished above 20% and Cruz above 10%.
A realistic breakdown of Rhode Island would be 10 delegates for Trump, 5 for Kasich and 4 for Cruz +/- 2 delegates.
7) Overall, it should be a fantastic night for Trump, who should receive somewhere between 94 and 109 of the 118 pledged delegates up for grabs. He should also have non-binding verbal commitments from a number of the Pennsylvania delegates to vote for him on the first ballot.
Sourcing
For primary dates and times:
Official GOP websites for states.
For delegate allocation:
The Green Papers
Frontloading Blogspot
For polling data:
Real Clear Politics
The real challenge tomorrow will be for the news networks:
How many seconds after 8:00 p.m. will elapse before they call the races for Trump?
Good post....book marking
They’ll probably call CT, MD an PA immediately, then wait for raw votes from RI and DE. There are no exit polls in RI and DE. There are in CT, MD and PA.
It is so much fun to have our voices matter for a change!!! I’ll be heading up to our community center in one hour!!! GO TRUMP!!!!
Thanks for posting this!
ragmop
Thank-you for coming to the home plate for posting this thread.
FNC is going full out bash trump by putting on Romney’s attacks and recycling old talking points.
Link to PA delegates for “soft” support. While they are technically unbound, some have stated their intentions.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NfzyoWfwqjrYbc5Xqb9lyerxztNxLuZDzwPBarYZJFA/htmlview?pli=1
Maryland “Freak State” PING!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.