Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
You are working with Japanese to get a miniscule amount of our goods into Japan, which they do grudgingly and only to the extent absolutely necessary, and everyone you deal with and everyone you know is afraid of Trump, because their sweetheart deals with the USA will be threatened if he is President. They have unbelievable barriers to US manufacturers bringing goods into Japan, and Trump is saying that Japan can't send Toyotas to the US if they have this de facto ban on US goods. A Japanese patriot would not want Trump. A US patriot would.
” I got no notice (though I had registered with the locals and given contact info well in advance).”
You didn’t know there was a election this year?
— General election news gave March 1 as the date for the WY caucus, and yes I *did* know there was an election this year - (spare me your insults, though I know how easy it is to snipe at someone on the internet. I am a real person, and could be somebody’s mother.)
” Though I was traveling in Feb, I expected to be back in time.”
So you were out of town? Who’s fault is that?
—— Again ,the calendar listed the WY caucus as March 1. Again, some of my R friends got no notice of it - and it wasn’t in the papers, local news - either.
——In contrast, my 98 year old relative in a nursing home got a notice from the Dems to participate. We could learn something from the Dems.
“Looked where to caucus in area online. I felt very much shut out like the fix was in—for Cruz. Another WY Republican friend had the same experience.”
You couldn’t your caucus site, or you couldn’t find it online?
-— The official website I found online listed no site to caucus for my area.
“The rules are in place and the ground troops know the rules”
Who put the rules in place? Did the Colorado voters?
If it wasn’t Cruz, someone else would be their elite baby.
The Republicans in Colorado. It's their primary. Most of those who drafted and passed the rules were Republicans when Donald Trump was a pro-choice, pro universal health care, pro-partial birth abortion democrat who was donating to Pelosi, Clinton, Schumer and Reid.
Each state Republican party drafts their own rules. If you wanted to be a part of that process, then you should have worked in the party and gotten yourself on the rules committee for your state.
Trump has no ground game. He is running a top-down campaign and Cruz is running a grass roots campaign. That is the way it is.
When Trump wins when he plays by the rules (like is winner take all primaries that disenfranchise most of the voters) he is happy. When he loses, he whines about how unfair the rules are.
Where did you get your diploma? On the back of a box of Post Toasties? Are you always so stupid or is today a special occasion? Sheesh. Clueless.
Good comeback. How many American jobs did you cost us today?
Its a Freak Show. By and large I would asses 80 or 90% of those arena crowds will not go on to do anything of substance that is needed by Trump, outside of showing up to a rally, such core work as nitty gritty or party work, caucusing, phone canvassing, GOTV. Ted, on the other hand, has got this wired with boots on the ground for the last half of a year, for crying out loud! And they cry “stolen!” (sic)<<<<
Which of course is why Trump has millions of actual votes by actual people more than cruz could even dream of.
Which is why lyin’ ted feels a need to lie, and to sneak in through the back doors.
The proof is in the puddin’!
I really don’t care what cruz supporters have to say for him. I have sat and listened to him myself, and have heard his lies personally. I trust my own ears and instincts much more than some stranger’s prideful opinion.
If there were actual good things to be said about him, that would be a very different story, but there isn’t. All I see is pride and lack of good character judgement tied up with a ‘’well the other guy made a mistake so that justifies cruz lies’..the same kind of bs we all used to try and pull on our parents when we were kids wanting to have our own way with something. Same damn thing.
I didn’t buy into it when my own kids tried to pull the manipulation game on me either. “But MOM! EVERYBODY else is doing it!!! Learn to stand on your own two feet and quit being a follower. Make your own decisions. Take responsibility for the results of your choices.
Liars might make good lawyers, but they do NOT make for good leaders..actual leaders. They know how to cheat, how to make a thing look technically ok, but that’s not a leader.
I’m sorry you don’t seem to know the actual difference.
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