Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
Exactly, voters weren’t even allow the courtesy of a vote. Real GOPe teamwork there. The kind they will use to ram through Amnesty if and when Cruz would win.
The CO leadership choose not to have a primary or a caucus, the GOP or Cruz had nothing to do with it.
The CO [GOP] leadership is the GOP in CO.
Stop with your BS. The CO leadership you are referring to are GOP party politicos who made this decision in AUGUST 2015. The GOP did have something to do with it and it was intended for Jeb to stop Bush. As the legacy Bush Dynasty Standard Bearer, Cruz got the manna from the GOP as a sign-on bonus.
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_28700919/colorado-republicans-cancel-2016-presidential-caucus-vote
..Jeb to stop Bush..... Should be “...Jeb to stop Trump....”
It’s called a very, very well run campaign and one of the best ground games ever seen, all run one of the best organized and smartest men you’ve ever met, Ted Cruz.
Nope, every state sets their own rules.
“The CO leadership you are referring to are GOP party politicos who made this decision in AUGUST 2015.”
So...Aug 2015 - April 2016 isn’t enough time for Trump to figure out how the rules work?
I guess rallies and ball caps won’t be enough to win in the real world?
You seem real proud Colorado voters were not allowed and open and above board process to vote their opinions instead having to take time out of their lives to navigate through established party roadblocks to secure delegate slots instead. Shame on you. Bark it up another tree, fella.
You might have a point... except for that tweet the Colorado GOP sent.
We did it! #NeverTrump
That delegate farce was NEVER about giving voice to the Republican voters in Colorado. It was about Ted's establishment cronies screwing over Donald Trump.
Yes we all know the talking points.
Trump didn’t even show up, he had no right to any CO votes.
If Trump had only been outworked, it would be one thing. But, again, it is clear that those who are SUPPOSED to be honest brokers were in bed with Ted.
Well, Trump can try again next time.
Getting USA products and services into Japan. Why do you ask?
If Trump had only been outworked
...sorry but it’s obvious that the NYCValuesBigMouth was outworked big time, starting with conservatives mobilizing in Dec, and Cruz actually showing up to speak, which brilliant CronyCrooktRump did NOT... makes a difference at the local level where conservatives like Tancredo have been battling the gopE furiously for a few years.
ymmv
Yup...that looks like a GOP meeting...mostly old people... (I can say that...I’m old!)
And accomplishing what, exactly?
I am sick to damn death of our vast array of "fighters" who can never find a way to win.
I'll take wins on 3 America-first issues before result-free fights on a dozen.
I was always offended by Trump's moniker for Cruz. I wondered why in the world would he do that. Then, when Cruz embraced Mormonism to gain political advantage, it dawned on me. I wouldn't be surprised there is opposition research on Cruz, with evidence, just waiting until he's handed over Trump, if the GOPe or Democrats need it to dispose of Cruz. The moniker still bothers me. Truth will out. I remember Jim and Tammy Faye Bakker.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.