Weak and Getting Weaker: Electability argument against Trump in the general election is hardening

Weekly Standard ^ | 04/10/2016 | Jonathan Last

[SeekAndFind]

Of all the arguments against Donald Trump, the softest has been his poor prospects for victory in the general election. True, he has consistently polled worse against Hillary Clinton than have Ted Cruz, John Kasich, and virtually every other person who ran. But polls change. And if Trump were to win the Republican nomination, it would be such an earthquake that the political order might be transformed. Clinton, moreover, has huge vulnerabilities. She lacks many basic political skills, and she is a hostage to fortune—in both the usual way, as the heir to an incumbent president, and in the unusual one of being the subject of an FBI investigation.

Yet the electability argument against Trump is hardening, fast. He has a 67 percent unfavorable rating (per the Washington Post/ABC News poll), which would be the highest ever recorded for a major-party nominee, and a net favorable rating of minus-39 among white women and minus-31 among independents. Trump's numbers aren't just bad; they're the stuff of nightmares.

When you add up all of the data, there are four reasons to suspect Trump's chances in the general election are incredibly slim.

(1) The appeal of Trump was supposed to be that he would expand the electorate by bringing home white voters who didn't turn out for Mitt Romney in 2012. Looking at Trump's numbers among whites, it's not clear how he could do that—his favorability numbers are underwater not just among whites generally, but even among non-college-educated whites (where he's minus-7) and white men (minus-4).

But the Trump-wins-by-turning-out-white-Republicans theory breaks down fatally when you look at where Trump is with every other group. In order to claw his way into the poor position he's in with white voters, Trump has cheesed off every other demographic group: He's minus-53 with self-described moderates;

[mylife]

He is being shut down with lies and innuendo but he aint a quitter

Bridge is up... no it aint...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Clz9ykXMkeM

Go team go!

[mylife]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IatwoA00E0&ebc=ANyPxKoEUYiMXCAUsHLHGb-MUXvV6Ln03Shiiyf51aUG7TSBx3eMVXXJomuVAX2odeDBkiXiw3B9s3YadvubMSCEkBZaO3uIow&nohtml5=False

[PhiloBedo]

Sorry old boy...I forgot to ping you. Bad form, I know.

[mylife]

Get me my uniform!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-CuUzR55N_Y&ebc=ANyPxKqJnI-696S4xQogyqK0d7dGPSMtwsIl0gTVqo_RsUXjNb1xroNU3cEpnhmrUMcIDFvyCgr9GfX2Vp1fGbWoXVyS79Jojg&nohtml5=False

all this quitter talk pisses me off

[Radix]

Flash Bulletin: Trump has been withstanding the Fox assaults. Perhaps you might have noticed that 14 other candidates have left the race.

[af_vet_1981]

Do you equate anti=Mormon with antiMormonism, or are you simply concerned that people who believe in Mormonism be treated with respect and dignity ?

[DugwayDuke]

“Flash Bulletin: Trump has been withstanding the Fox assaults. Perhaps you might have noticed that 14 other candidates have left the race.”

Breaking News: Trump’s favorable rating is 29.3. His unfavorable rating is 64.9. The spread is -35.2. Trump is trailing Clinton by 10.6. Trump is losing Utah to Clinton. Trump is trailing a socialist by 16.5.

If that is ‘withstanding’ one wonders what losing looks like.

[BagCamAddict]

Can anyone explain this math to me?

CNN news article on my phone today about current poll numbers in New York says:

Clinton 53% over Sanders 37% by 16 points

But in a general election, the poll said:

Clinton would beat Trump by 16 points

and

Sanders would beat Trump by 19 points

This math doesn’t add up for me.

If Clinton beats Sanders in the primary by 16 points, then how does Sanders beat Trump by more than Clinton beats Trump in a general?

What demographic is switching?

[Hoodat]

Yet the electability argument against Trump is hardening, fast. He has a 67 percent unfavorable rating (per the Washington Post/ABC News poll), which would be the highest ever recorded for a major-party nominee, and a net favorable rating of minus-39 among white women and minus-31 among independents. Trump's numbers aren't just bad; they're the stuff of nightmares.

Trump supporters don't care.

[Hoodat]

McConnell only does that for GOPe candidates.

[Hoodat]

Those that didn’t vote Romney stayed home because he was a RINO but, at least he never contributed to democrats.

Trump is to the left of Romney.

[Hoodat]

Wait, isn’t the Weekly Standard one of those pseudo conservative publications?

Just as Trump is a pseudo-conservative candidae.

[Hoodat]

Wait, isn’t the Weekly Standard one of those pseudo conservative publications?

Just as Trump is a pseudo-conservative candidae.

[Hoodat]

I voted Marrou. If faced with that choice again, I would do the same thing because Marrou stood on principle - not populism. I will always reject the Andrew Jackson candidate.

In '96, I voted Kemp. Same thing.

[Dagnabitt]

Reagan was behind but he caught up and won because:

1. There were a lot more swing voters (ie white voters) in 1980.
2. Reagan was tough, but he was also a well-spoken, knowledgable and charming man.

Trump loses in a landslide because #1 is no longer true, and because he is the opposite of #2.

[mylife]

Jack Kemp was a decent lad

[cradle of freedom]

I wasn’t talking to you.

[editor-surveyor]

.
Bingo!
.

[cradle of freedom]

I don’t know where you stand on NAFTA and TPA type of trade deals but do you call these *free trade* deals that we have done that has cost us so many millions of jobs real conservatism?

[editor-surveyor]

.
This is one of the big reasons for the Cruz surge that is presently picking up steam.

(the other reason is the barrage of fake “scandals”)
.