Posted on 03/31/2016 5:42:07 AM PDT by Brilliant
The new map, as you will see, does not show a close and competitive general election. The Republicans now find themselves in a deep hole.
Yes, more than seven long months remain until the election, and all kinds of unexpected twists and turns can occur. Sure, we don’t know the shape of the economy or terrorism, or the precise job approval rating of President Obama in the autumn, or the gaffes and scandals that may yet unfold on our way to the ballot box. But goshdarnit, there’s finally a pause in the non-stop primary calendar, and we’re going to take advantage of that!...
Election analysts prefer close elections, but there was nothing we could do to make this one close. Clinton’s total is 347 electoral votes, which includes 190 safe, 57 likely, and 100 that lean in her direction. Trump has a total of 191 (142 safe, 48 likely, and 1 leans).
Over the years we’ve put much emphasis on the seven super-swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. While some will fall to the Democrats less readily than others, it is difficult to see any that Trump is likely to grab. In fact, four normally Republican states (Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri) would be somewhat less secure for the GOP than usual. North Carolina, which normally leans slightly to the GOP, would also be well within Clinton’s grasp in this election after being Mitt Romney’s closest win in 2012...
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
don’t know until then, but I can only go fro what I see and hear here and there are os many people here fed up of the establishment and cruz and has said there is no way if Trump is cheated out of this that they will vote for anyone else.
Sad it came to this as this was in the bag for us all, but instead the establishment doe snot want what most of us want and would rather fight to get their own guy, even using cruz and Kasich to do it.
Trump does well with Evangelical, and a lot better with Blacks than Romney did.
The question is who turns out the vote, and Trump will.
Trump wins in NY, Fl, NJ and NV.
Beats me. I only mention it because it seems to be a real phenomenon. I think it’s less that they like Hillary and more that they don’t like Trump.
I think Cruz will do well with Evangelicals in Florida. Not with blacks, but then I doubt many Florida blacks will vote for Trump over Hillary, either. Much of Trump’s argument to blacks is directed to black workers who want tariffs to protect their jobs. Florida really doesn’t have much of a manufacturing industry, so I don’t think that’s going to make much difference in Florida. The other part of it is immigration, but immigration is a two-edged sword in Florida.
“Why will carpetbagger Hillary take most of the NE states, rather than Trump?”
Because prior to getting into politics Donald Trump was known here basically as a Reality TV star and a big developer. Reality star might help him (name recognition etc.) but big developer is the kiss of death (since the connotation of big developers rightly or wrongly is that of a sleazy land raping, back room deal making hucksters who come in make money and leave the municipalities/taxpayers with all kinds of problems to deal with later).
I am not saying it is fair but that is the way many many people look at it. Mr Trump was not a widely beloved personality in the NE before he entered the race.
We had two strong candidates who were not beholden to the GOPe that we have managed to completely destroy through character assassination. They are now both total non-factors in the general election.
Nice work, conservative movement.
If anything, I think Sabato is too optimistic about the Republicans’ chances in November.
As unlikable Trump is (personality wise), Hillary is unlikable in whole other level. And she is a complete liar and totally untrustworthy. A Republican that would vote for her should turn in their card. Any argument you can make against Trump goes double for Hillary.
Quinnipiac: Clinton, Sanders Crush Trump in New York
http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/quinnipiac-trump-clinton-dominate/2016/03/31/id/721591/
Still show a better outcome than McCain in 08.
Also, many are no worse that Romney four years ago.
Same in Tennessee. In closed primary’s Cruz leads, in open primaries it’s Trump. Tennessee was an exception as we are closed Primary’s. Cruz dropped the ball here by not showing up in the western end, he stayed mostly in the Red end of the state not the Bible Belt part. But we had a TON of DEM re-registering as Republicans in record numbers. Who will re-register as Dems before Nov. Memphis and Nashville always go DEM. Demographics. The counties can’t out vote these 2 cities. Population is not equal. Which is why Shelby CO is mostly Dem controlled at the city and county levels.
Even the “tiny Towns” which have their own government are GOP except for a few.
It took us since Reconstruction to turn the legislature Blue. Governors have come and gone both ways. This is one of the few times 2 branches are Blue, judicial is red left over from past administrations. And it is a Retain or Not retain vote and they show up on both dem and gop ballots and you have no idea what party they are. They do not campaign. I just vote NO RETAIN on all of them since I don’t know party.
Yep. The only way the GOP wins NY (no matter who the GOP candidate is) is if the Dem is Hillary and she gets indicted before the election. And even that is not certain.
Both results of course being Democrat victories. Demographics is destiny, and the nation has not shifted to the right.
“What are some of Hillary’s positive qualities?”
Keeps up the flow of cheap labor and wastes heroic young lives in foreign wars.
If you’re a Republican, what’s not to like?
Sanatorium just shows Trump v Clinton because this is the key week for Stop Trump. The numbers will come out once Trump can’t win showing Cruz would do even worse. Of course, then the polls will show Kasich or Jeb or Romney beating Hillary this we have to put one of them in as the nominee!
Nice work, conservative movement.
Exactly right. We will regret this election cycle for years. And we lose the Court for longer.
Trump and Cruz needed to come together but neither showed the leadership to make it happen. Sad.
The only upside is the GOPe and the base are getting a divorce.
Maybe he could emulate Rick Perry and start wearing glasses so people don't recognize him. Hey, it worked for Superman....
Got any predictions for what happens if Hillary gets abducted by space aliens or sucked into a black hole? Because those scenarios are about as likely as an indictment from the Obama Justice Department....
It didn't happen in the primary (at least not sufficiently to beat Trump), so why would it happen in the general election (sufficiently to beat Hillary)?
I don’t think that evangelicals are as big a political force in Florida as some think. Cruz would do as well as Trump with evangelicals in Florida. Perhaps better. But you’re not going to win Florida with evangelicals. I was just responding to the comment about Trump being better with evangelicals. Not suggesting that either would win based on that.
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