Posted on 03/30/2016 6:09:53 PM PDT by GilGil
Two recent polls from Wisconsin highlight the bizarre world of information contrast. ◾One poll of 6,000 from Optimus Research; ◾And another poll of 471 from Marquette University Law School.
Take all of this poll data with a grain of salt. Instead look at the visible activity you can rely upon. The crowds, or the raw data which has not reached a filter.
Last Night – Between 8 and 9 p.m., when Cruz answered questions from Anderson Cooper and GOP voters in Wisconsin, CNN averaged 2.78 million viewers, 853,000 of whom were in the demo. Between 9 and 10 p.m., when it was Trump’s turn, CNN averaged 4.04 million viewers, with 1.33 million in the demo.
That’s 45.32% more people who tuned in to watch Donald Trump than watched Ted Cruz on the same show.
Kasich was on last, between 10 and 11 p.m. During that hour, CNN averaged 2.97 million viewers, with 999,000 in the demo.
CNN’s closest competitor during the evening, Fox News, also saw a boost when Trump appeared on Sean Hannity’s 10 p.m. show. Hannity’s program with Trump averaged 466,000 in the demo, almost half as many as watched Kasich on CNN. (link)
(Excerpt) Read more at theconservativetreehouse.com ...
The Wisconsin race is wide open and Trump has a very good shot.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Not only is the race wide open, it will turn out more voters than ever because of Trump.
Trump has the union vote because of his trade positions, and Trump also has the anti-Walker vote, which at this point is substantial among Republicans.
Not only does Trump have a shot, Trump will beat Cruz like a drum. The Optiumus poll is a precursor poll with 5 days left to the primary in Wisconsin, Trump will climb like a trooper while Cruz will muddle. Trump will take the Optimus poll from 29% to about 43% to 53% later in the week.
Wisconsin has an open primary. You are the one headed for a major disappointment. As a Cruzer you are probably used to it by now.
Wisconsin is not winner take all. It won’t change anything.
No matter who wins, both Trump and Cruz will get about the same number of delegates.
Cruz will still have no path to a majority of delegates.
Wow! Go Trump!
Hopefully Trump will continue talking down his chances prior to the WI vote. He’s spent the entire year in a series of personal fights with individual women, attacking them for their looks, for menstruation, etc. Now he’s saddled himself with the notion of “punishing women” for abortions. Not sure what else he can do on the woman front to drive down his chances. Hard to top the awful week he just had.
Even if Lying Ted Bush wins every delegate he still has no way in the world of catching Trump in delegates. Ted Bush, being the typical establishment hack that he is, thinks his establishment hack friends will rig the election for him on the second ballot at the convention. He could be 400 delegates behind Trump and he would still go along with the ruse of him being the candidate. After all it’s been willed from God that he was sent to earth to become the US president. Just ask his equally crazy wife and his old man Big Nose Sr.
Even in open Primaries Cruz outperforms the pre-election polls (typically). He has a very solid ground game. And with Walker’s endorsement he will have an even better ground game on getting out the vote.
I think it’s over for Trump unless he gets a surprise win in Wisconsin. Without Wisconsin he can’t get to 1237. He will fall short of the number (not by a lot but still short). Unless he can convince some uncommitted delegates to vote for him in the first round of voting he can’t win.
So now the real question is does Cruz have enough support to win in the 2nd round of voting or will the GOPe pick a nominee.
The fighting between Cruz and Trump needs to end. Neither one will get to 1237.
Just remember guys.. WI is an open primary state which is Trump’s biggest advantages!!!!!
I didn't know this. Do you happen to know how many other states are also Voter ID states? Thanks for your post.
“My view is that if Trump wants it he ought to win it.”
Also my view. But let me tell you Cruz has done one more pitiful job of winning states since the race began. He’s managed to win 8 small caucus states, win his adopted home state of Texas with 43% of the vote and win a close contest with Trump in neighboring Oklahoma.
Trump on the otherhand has won 21 states all over the country, won about 300 more delegates and over 2 million more votes. He summarily destroyed Cruz in Michigan, VA, Florida and the entire Southern United States. No contest. Cruz has no shot at overtaking Trump, even if he wins all 48 delegates in Wisconsin.
He has all the Esprit of a vent dwelling homeless man. Since the Enquirer article, Heidi looks like a pillowcase stuffed with laundry. What an inspiration for November.
The Marquette poll is only Republican likely voters.
Wisconsin is an “Open” primary state - which means that Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican primary. Trump has lots of Blue Collar Democrat Union supporters and independents and Wisconsin has many union workers.
Cruz may be ahead of Trump, but it is a lot closer than the 10 point spread this poll suggests.
A more accurate poll would be of everyone who is likely to vote in the Republican presidential primary, not just Republicans!!!
I will look into it in the morning on what remaining states are Voter ID
I saw no problem with the questions.
Were the respondents only Republicans? Registered? Likely? Adults?
I don’t know.
He should bow out because the numbers show he can’t win. It is a pretty easy conclusion. And you know the reasons.
BTW I don’t expect him to get out, he isn’t patriotic enough to do what is right for his country. A man of honor would, Cruz won’t.
Both polls were pre Walker endorsement. Caveat emptor.
Wisconsin would force Cruz out since it would make it clear to even Cruzers that he has NO chance but a loss would have no impact on Trump’s campaign. It isn’t critical for him, but it is just to keep Cruz’s fantasies going. He has no chance no matter what happens in Ws.
He has to do 60% better than Trump in his home field, his strongest states. Not going to happen.
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