Posted on 03/25/2016 5:39:07 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
As Donald Trump rolls through the political calendar, his campaign has already begun focusing on a new battle that may have a broader set of consequences -- finding delegates who will be loyal to his cause at the Republican National Convention.
Part of the battle has come in the form of emails to delegates and supporters trying to lock down crucial votes. The other half is a five-person task force that has been quietly being trying to amass the 1,237 votes needed.
Candidates accumulate their delegate count based on the primary or caucus vote, but the processes by which the actual human beings are chosen to fill these delegate slots take place much later and vary by state.
In some states, delegates are elected directly on the ballot. In others, delegates are elected at a state convention or congressional district level meetings.
Rival campaigns and anti-Trump activists have already begun jockeying to fill low-level delegate slots in states that have already voted in order to get themselves elected to the national convention.
If they can infiltrate the delegation, they will likely be bound to vote for Trump on the first vote of the convention. But they can vote against him in making the rules and defect to another candidate if the convention is contested -- when a candidate fails to reach 1,237 delegates before the first ballot.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Another cogent comment from a semi-literate reporter.
My reasoning: In terms of organization at the GOP convention Trump is up against a generally better organized Cruz and, of course, the GOPe and their heavy-handed operations to take the nomination away from him. IMHO, that is a tough course for Trump and, realistically, the only real hope for Cruz.
If I'm wrong about this and Trump manages to gain votes after the first ballot then he looks like a sure winner to me.
Although my expectation is that Trump will get his 1237 plus delegates there is still some debate around these parts as to what happens if he doesn't.
School of Thought #1: Cruz Wins. Cruz will get it since he will get the GOPe backing and is the best bet to minimize the damage from dissatisfied Trump Supporters.
School of Thought #2. Kasich or Romney or Some Other GOPe Flunky Wins. This assumes that the GOPe Masters either want to lose to Hillary or believe they can have their way and win with whoever they choose. And they certainly do not want Cruz or Trump.
Time will tell. It will all be moot if Trump gets his 1237, a likelihood IMHO. But, if not, the efforts to influence the delegates themselves is going to make for much debate and very interesting theater.
Too funny. A man renowned for lack of loyalty now expecting loyalty from strangers. Good luck, Donald.
Explain this to me: If Cruz can’t win in his own party against Trump, how in the world is he going to win nationally? It won’t happen.
Know this, The Donald didn’t make his billions by being stupid.
That is a really good question. I don't know. But what I do know is that the polls for Cruz and even Kasich vs. Hillary are better than Trump vs Hillary.
The problem Trump seems to have that he is going to have to overcome is his very high negatives. And note that at this point he has less than half of the delegates that have been allocated. Not a good sign for Trump.
I think he will win but it looks like a battle to beat Hillary - at least according to the current polls. That may change. This should be a slam-dunk GOP year but somehow the polls are not showing that. At least not yet.
Numerically Cruz could get enough delegates. But that means he has to win almost 90% of the remaining delegates. Then look at the states that havent voted....solid Trump territory. Cruz may even come in 3rd in some places. It is what it is....
There are only two options: Trump wins, or the flunky wins.
There is no path, in any universe, for Cruz now to be president. He should have thought of that when he turned on Trump. Whatever support he has from the GOPe is as fleeting as Juan McCain’s support from the media in 2008. They will never, ever permit him to get the nomination. Meanwhile, anyone but Trump getting the nomination will basically send those (so far) 7.5 million Trump voters home on election day.
“NeverTrump?” LOL. It will be never GOP, ever again. You will see massive, and I mean massive GOP defections the day after Trump is denied the nomination-—IF it is by chicanery. I agree that if he doesn’t have the 1237, they will find a way to screw him. But I do think if he goes in short of 1237, therefore leaving some semblance of “honesty” to the process, the damage to the GOP will be slightly less.
While I expect Trump to win this thing simply by getting the 1237 delegates I'm pretty sure that a failure to do do will be fatal to his candidacy.
OTOH, if Cruz is the benefactor I really don't think that there will be a mass defection of the Trump fans. But I agree that this a debatable position and not widely supported here at FR AKA Trump Country.
I also do not believe that the GOPe can stop Cruz if we go to a second ballot. For me the fact that Trump is really trouncing the GOPe is proof enough that these guys are not the overpowering force that you and admittedly many others here at Good Old FR believe they are. So I don't buy the argument that they can steer over 1000 delegates to Kasich or, God forbid, Romney. That, I believe, would be a fatal mistake and is, IMHO, the reason we are starting to see the GOPe endorsements for Cruz.
What the Hell are “high negatives?”
FReepers used to be one of the most politically-astute observers on the Internet. Unfortunately, logic and common-sense have given way to discredited poll numbers and articles written by leftists.
I have more respect for the Clinton War Room...
You also don’t build major projects all around the world without knowing which palms need to be greased to make that happen. Trump will approach the convention maneuvering like any other permitting problem. If it comes to a floor fight you can be sure the right people will be taken care of to ensure that the numbers work out right in the end.
“We are not going to get outsmarted on the issue,”
Excellent article. It seems they are all over this problem, well let's call it what it is, attempted election theft.
The loyalty of the Cruzer and GOPe infiltrators will be tested against their fear of ongoing legal battles and public naming and shaming.
I especially like the part where they urge the good guys to record everything to video.
So let me understand this: Trump, who has support PURELY because he has won 7.5 million votes and 750 delegates, is finished if it goes to round two, but Cruz, who has 1/3 those votes and 150 or more (don’t keep up with his total cause he on’t win), isn’t?
And this is because why? Cruz’s people are smarter? Or because all the GOPe-—who have managed to control the party for 20 years, LIKE Ted?
I’m not following the logic. It’s cut and dried—it will be Trump of a GOPe stooge. Cruz has no chance. That’s what’s sad: he had a chance to be a real player with Trump. So maybe he’s not as smart as everyone thinks.
GOPe hates Cruz
GOPe hates Trump much more
GOPe controls enough delegates to deny Trump the nomination
GOPe does not control enough delegates to give Kasich the nomination
I’m pretty sure of the first 3 items. Point 4 is understandably being hotly debated here. Many, presumably yourself, believe the GOPe is all poweful and have total control of the delegate voting. I don’t agree.
OK. All the pollsters are wrong. Interesting theory.
That is a possibility.
Trump thinks so because both he and Cruz are working hard to influence the selection of delegates that are loyal to them. This fact is clearly being overlooked by those who hold the All Powerful GOPe Theory that will give the nomination to Kasich or Romney if Trump doesn't make it too 1237. I don't believe that for a minute.
Yes, Trump could pull this off but I think he will have a large number of delegates who are ready to jump ship. Not enough to allow Kasich a chance but enough to let Cruz pull it out.
Just a theory, nothing more. It could be a second ballot Trump victory but just don't think that is in the cards.
Trump and Cruz both disagree with you. They are working to secure delegates who are not going let them vote for a GOPe stooge. When I see Trump and Cruz give up that effort then I will agree with you. Right now they are both hard after securing loyal delegates. You apparently believe that is a hopeless cause. I don't. Trump doesn't. Neither does Cruz.
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