My reasoning: In terms of organization at the GOP convention Trump is up against a generally better organized Cruz and, of course, the GOPe and their heavy-handed operations to take the nomination away from him. IMHO, that is a tough course for Trump and, realistically, the only real hope for Cruz.
If I'm wrong about this and Trump manages to gain votes after the first ballot then he looks like a sure winner to me.
Although my expectation is that Trump will get his 1237 plus delegates there is still some debate around these parts as to what happens if he doesn't.
School of Thought #1: Cruz Wins. Cruz will get it since he will get the GOPe backing and is the best bet to minimize the damage from dissatisfied Trump Supporters.
School of Thought #2. Kasich or Romney or Some Other GOPe Flunky Wins. This assumes that the GOPe Masters either want to lose to Hillary or believe they can have their way and win with whoever they choose. And they certainly do not want Cruz or Trump.
Time will tell. It will all be moot if Trump gets his 1237, a likelihood IMHO. But, if not, the efforts to influence the delegates themselves is going to make for much debate and very interesting theater.
Explain this to me: If Cruz can’t win in his own party against Trump, how in the world is he going to win nationally? It won’t happen.
Numerically Cruz could get enough delegates. But that means he has to win almost 90% of the remaining delegates. Then look at the states that havent voted....solid Trump territory. Cruz may even come in 3rd in some places. It is what it is....
There are only two options: Trump wins, or the flunky wins.
There is no path, in any universe, for Cruz now to be president. He should have thought of that when he turned on Trump. Whatever support he has from the GOPe is as fleeting as Juan McCain’s support from the media in 2008. They will never, ever permit him to get the nomination. Meanwhile, anyone but Trump getting the nomination will basically send those (so far) 7.5 million Trump voters home on election day.
“NeverTrump?” LOL. It will be never GOP, ever again. You will see massive, and I mean massive GOP defections the day after Trump is denied the nomination-—IF it is by chicanery. I agree that if he doesn’t have the 1237, they will find a way to screw him. But I do think if he goes in short of 1237, therefore leaving some semblance of “honesty” to the process, the damage to the GOP will be slightly less.