Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[Jeff Head]

My thoughts on last nights primaries, and the unspoken results that now only Trump can win enough delegates through the primaries.

[Jeff Head]

FYI...my thoughts.

[bigbob]

Very well reasoned and presented!

[jospehm20]

I suspect Cruz will abide by any decision that the Bushes and Romney make for him.

[Lurkinanloomin]

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

*********************************

Too late.

¡Teb! has fully embraced the Cartel he once railed against

He is on board the Cheap Labor Express in their attempt to block the citizens from keeping their country.

[austinaero]

Ah snap!

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

So now the Cruz supporters have to decide it they are going to play nice or try to force a brokered convention on everyone else.

This will be very interesting.

[ConservativeMind]

This is why The Establishment will completely endorse Ted Cruz.

Jeb Bush only endorsed Ted after it was too late.

[Utmost Certainty]

Looking at UT primary results from ‘08 and ‘12 put last night’s into perspective for me…

2012: Romney 93% | Paul 4.7%
2008: Romney 89.5% | McCain 5.4%

Nothing all that anomalous since apparently Utahns vote in creepy lockstep. If anything, Cruz underperformed by only netting 69%.

[newfreep]

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

Too late...Lyin' JEB/Ted has been a Bush Establishmentarian from the beginning.

He's now being used to block Trump so Establishment can "nominate" Lyin' Paul Ryan.

It's so transparent even Ray Charles could see it...and he's blind AND dead.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

bookmark

[LostPassword]

I’ve heard Cruz a few times say “Kasich should get out since he can’t reach 1237.” Wonder if Cruz will change his mind when HE can’t reach 1237. I’ll bet he decides that having a path to 1237 isn’t so important at that point.

[Dilbert San Diego]

Well, it seems clear that Trump will have a strong plurality at the end of the primary process. Will he be derailed?

If Trump doesn’t win on the 1st ballot, then all hell breaks loose, figuratively speaking. Who would be the compromise candidate who wins on a 2nd or 3rd ballot?? Jeb Bush??? Mitt Romney even?? After all a convention doesn’t have to limit itself to candidates who ran during the primaries.

[eaglestar]

Who won American Samoa?

[Red Steel]

GOPee and Yeb! have absorbed Cruz along with his blind ambition to keep on going. Next state Wisconsin where Trump picks will pick up ALL 42 Wisconsin delegates.

[batterycommander]

A powerful mathematical argument.

[Resolute Conservative]

No he won’t. If he loses he will cede.

[dynoman]

[lafroste]

It would be nice, however, if the text in your argument did not run off the right screen, meaning that a scroll bar was needed to view all of it. You may want to re-paginate a bit.

[austinaero]

The ‘when’ is NOW for Cruz. Cruz cannot reach the # of delegates needed a of now.

Even if Cruz won every single delegate from this point forward, he would still be short the number of delegates needed for first round.

Cruz has handed a brokered convention to the establishment GOP. Congrats all you “outsider” Cruz supporters. The GOP thanks you and Cruz for being the useful tools they needed.

Disgusting.

[Kaisersrsic]

1,237 gets Trump the nomination, but 1,236 doesn’t mean sh-t.

If Trump doesn’t get 1,237 on the first ballot, the rules call for a second ballot. The GOP may try to prevent the second ballot from going to Cruz, or they may not. Perhaps Trump will agree to be Cruz’s Vice President and their combined effort will carry the day.

I am sure both campaigns have plans that include following the rules.