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Why a Contested Convention Favors Cruz
National Review ^ | March 23, 2016 | Eliana Johnson

Posted on 03/23/2016 9:01:09 AM PDT by reaganaut1

Meet Curly Haugland, former chairman of the North Dakota Republican party and current Republican national committeeman. Haugland is one of just 112 delegates who will arrive unbound to this summer’s Republican convention in Cleveland, free to cast a vote for any candidate he chooses on a first ballot because North Dakota does not hold a primary or caucus. That makes him a particularly valuable asset to the still-dueling presidential campaigns.

Haugland, a Bismarck businessman and a member of the powerful RNC committee that will set the rules governing this year’s convention, says voters may be in for a rude awakening when they learn that the votes cast by delegates on the floor of the convention — rather than those cast in primaries and caucuses — actually determine the Republican nominee. “The results on Fox are just a participation ribbon,” he says. That’s true: Regardless of who wins each state’s nominating contest, a candidate does not become the party’s standard-bearer until he receives a majority of the delegate vote on the convention floor.

The behind-the-scenes efforts by presidential candidates to win the allegiance of delegates such as Haugland are now attracting as much press coverage as the campaign itself. But those privy to the internal workings of the RNC and the delegate-selection process — many of whom agreed to speak on background to preserve their relationships with the candidates — say that the task of wooing individual delegates is probably too complex for an active presidential campaign to successfully manage, and that it’s unlikely to matter much. That’s because the delegates, who are elected through processes dictated by state-party bureaucracies, are themselves likely to be long-time Republican insiders more partial to Cruz than Trump.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016rncconvention; contested; cruz; fantasy; jebbush2016; lunacy; trump; yeb
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To: rochester_veteran
Yeah, this according to the same azzhiles who promised us Trump would have "flamed out" long ago. Sure, keep dreaming.

Trump will savage Hillary in the general.

41 posted on 03/23/2016 9:13:50 AM PDT by Gargantua ("...fee tine a maadyy..." ;^)
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To: reaganaut1

How idiotic can this be?

Cruz gets his butt kicked in the primaries, then gets selected by the GOP outlaw delegates? No way.

Cruz is finished.

In the second ballot, he will be the LAST candidate that could be reasonably selected — in an unreasonably contested convention.

Cruz is T-O-A-S-T unless he runs the table on remaining states — an impossibility.


42 posted on 03/23/2016 9:14:15 AM PDT by detch (")
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder

Beat me by a minute


43 posted on 03/23/2016 9:14:52 AM PDT by wrench
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To: reaganaut1


44 posted on 03/23/2016 9:15:18 AM PDT by Donglalinger
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To: Lurkinanloomin

“If the Cheap Labor Express gets their amnesty candidate by shenanigans at the convention, I will become a kamikazi voter and vote for every Democrat on my ballot forevermore”.

Exactly what my brothers and I plan to do....pass it around.


45 posted on 03/23/2016 9:15:37 AM PDT by heights
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To: dynoman

Cruz is simply doing what all Primary candidates have done by attempting to rally the Republican Party to support them. It’s what they do when running. Trump is also attempting to do so.....that’s just the way it’s played, like it or not. They know what to expect from Cruz....Trump, on the other hand is a Wild Card nobody knows how he will play...including Trump.


46 posted on 03/23/2016 9:16:00 AM PDT by caww
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To: wrench

‘been practicing my html!


47 posted on 03/23/2016 9:16:12 AM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (I apologize for not apologizing.)
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To: reaganaut1; All

National Review has apparently dedicated itself....it’s very survival, to TRASHING TRUMP


48 posted on 03/23/2016 9:17:56 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: lodi90

THEY DON’T CARE.


49 posted on 03/23/2016 9:19:38 AM PDT by ex91B10 (We've tried the Soap Box,the Ballot Box and the Jury Box; ONE BOX LEFT!)
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To: ExTexasRedhead; mkjessup; lodi90; vette6387; flat; Albion Wilde; BlackFemaleArmyCaptain; ZULU; ...

” Does fed up mean anything to the sewer slimes?”

You mean the Puke Review ?

OK, MK, do your stuff !


50 posted on 03/23/2016 9:19:50 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: reaganaut1

If its a contested convention, Trump has fewer delegates to woo than anyone, so its easier for him to close the deal. And Cruz people aren’t as hostile to him as you would think to read these threads.

On the other hand, Trump people are a bit crankier and so a contested primary that puts Cruz to the top would have to be believably fair, and even at that they need for Trump himself to acknowledge its fairness or else you would have a rebellion and the whole thing implodes.

In the current climate Cruz can’t win a contested primary without Trump’s endorsement... as odd as it may sound. So these would be some very interesting negotiations; I’d love to be a fly on the wall. Again, since Trump is the master negotiator, and his people are particularly loyal to him personally, he has the advantage even if Cruz puts together a winning coalition.

The winner at the end of it needs for his opponent’s supporters to support him willingly. Both Trump and Cruz face that hurdle. Neither can win without the sincere support of the other’s partisans.

If anyone other than Trump or Cruz was brought into the mix, even Cruz people walk out. So again, while GOPe dreams of substituting Paul Ryan or someone, it can’t happen unless they are prepared to burn down their own house and see GOP die right before their very eyes.

I will say one more thing. Trump does attract more cross-over votes from Democrats and unaffiliated independents than Cruz will. If Cruz comes out on top, that block of votes becomes much harder to reach. That’s something to consider when putting together the winning coalition.

Though I prefer Cruz for many reasons, I think Trump has it.


51 posted on 03/23/2016 9:20:02 AM PDT by marron
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To: libbylu

Trump was late in understanding the Delegate Count matters. Looks like he’s going to try and sidestep the rules as he’s done throughout his run.....what he doesn’t understand he simply bulldozes over. I expect he’ll do likewise at Convention......I expect he’ll be passing out $$$$ along the way.


52 posted on 03/23/2016 9:20:04 AM PDT by caww
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To: heights
Bull***

Typical reaction from Trump supporters when presented with the facts. Anger does not make for good decision making:

I'm Angry! So I'm Voting For Donald Trump.

53 posted on 03/23/2016 9:21:11 AM PDT by rochester_veteran (All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.)
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To: Donglalinger

LMAO!!

NR = Not Reliable


54 posted on 03/23/2016 9:21:53 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: reaganaut1

IMHO, The only way Cruz gets the nomination in a contested convention is he has won more delegates than Trump going into the convention. The GOP will throw away the election if anyone else but Trump or Cruz gets the nomination. They will lasso lose the Senate and lose seats in the house. It would be a disaster!


55 posted on 03/23/2016 9:21:54 AM PDT by martinidon
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To: libbylu

“my guess is more voters and delegates dislike Trump than like him”

Then how do you explain the fact that Trump is leading in this primary?


56 posted on 03/23/2016 9:23:43 AM PDT by Windflier (Pitchforks and torches ripen on the vine. Left too long, they become black rifles.)
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To: lodi90
Yawn. Any shenanigan and Trumpers walk. Poof. Bye bye GOP. Understand?

Turns out that, if Trump had set out with the express intention of destroying the Republican party, he couldn't have done a better job.

57 posted on 03/23/2016 9:25:32 AM PDT by okie01 (The Mainstream Media: IGNORANCE ON PARADE)
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To: caww

Yes, Cruz is just another status quo politician.


58 posted on 03/23/2016 9:27:23 AM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: heights

...” I will, in protest, vote the straight Democrat ticket, forever”....

You’ll be doing so because you don’t like the rules of the Convention. It’s how the game is played and Trump knows that as well....which is why he’s attempting to rile up his voters to revolt further before Convention. He knows well how to manipulate his supporters.


59 posted on 03/23/2016 9:27:26 AM PDT by caww
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To: heights
If the Sleazeball GOPe hands the nomination to a candidate with 400-500 less delegates than Trump, I will not only Never vote Republican again, I will, in protest, vote the straight Democrat ticket, forever....

Because the democrats are more honest?

Stop and listen to yourself.

60 posted on 03/23/2016 9:30:37 AM PDT by the_boy_who_got_lost
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