McCain faces toughest reelection of his career

The Hill ^ | March 19, 2016 | Alexander Bolton & Scott Wong

[jazusamo]

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is facing what may be the toughest reelection of his Senate career in an unpredictable presidential year, when many voters are angry with Washington.

Early polls show McCain tied with his Democratic challenger, Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Ariz.), at around 40 percent despite having nearly 100-percent name recognition in the state he has represented in either the Senate or House since 1983.

“The basic problem for John McCain is the same kind of thing that faces a lot of incumbents right now. He’s been there a long time. People are leery of Washington. They don’t like Washington,” said former Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe, who served 18 years alongside McCain in Arizona’s congressional delegation.

“This is a very tough challenge, probably the toughest race that he's faced since he was first elected,” Kolbe added.

McCain’s path to victory is complicated by the likelihood the GOP ticket will be headed byDonald Trump , who has an overwhelmingly negative rating among Hispanic voters, a powerful and growing electoral bloc in Arizona.

Trump has scheduled three events in Arizona Saturday with an eye on the winner-take-all presidential primary Tuesday. He will campaign with Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, whose get-tough approach to illegal immigration has made him a national lightning rod.

Hundreds of Latino activists plan to protest Trump’s events.

If Trump, the Republican front-runner, clinches the nomination his effect on GOP candidates down ballot is hard to predict but many party strategists aren’t optimistic.

“I don’t see how Donald Trump helps any incumbent Republicans. I think he’s a drag on the ticket,” Kolbe said.

While it’s too early to tell just how serious a threat his Democratic opponent will pose, McCain’s taking it seriously. He plans to work around the state over the March recess to shore up his relations with potential voters.

Notably, he will skip the Trump rallies in Phoenix, Fountain Hills and Tucson.

McCain held town halls Friday in Mohave County in the sparsely populated northwestern corner of the state with a local electric coop and one with the chamber of commerce in Bullhead City.

Next week he’ll travel to the White Mountains in the west to hold several events with fellow Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), whose family is from the area.

The following week he’ll travel through Phoenix, Tucson, Sierra Vista and Prescott, with several other stops along the way.

“It will be a tough race. I think it is very hard to predict this year because of all of the unique elements of this political year both on the Democratic and particularly the Republican side,” said former Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.).

“That said, I don’t know that I’ve ever seen Sen. McCain more energetic and engaged in a campaign effort than he is this time. He understands it’s a very unpredictable year. He has seen what’s happened to other candidates who have not taken their re-election seriously,” he added.

Two of McCain’s longtime colleagues, Sens. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.) and Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) nearly lost in 2014 after they appeared to be caught sleeping by their opponents. They pulled out victories, but the close calls gave GOP leaders heartburn.

A Merrill Poll released this past week showed McCain and Kirkpatrick essentially tied at 41 and 40 percent, respectively. The poll also showed Trump and Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential front-runner tied at 38 percent in the state.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, released a poll in early March showing that McCain has only a 26-percent approval rating and a whopping 63-percent disapproval rating.

“I’m hearing from voters that John McCain has changed after 33 years in Washington,” Kirkpatrick said in an interview with The Hill Friday. “They want a new voice in the Senate.”

Kirkpatrick, who raised $1.8 million in 2015, more than any other Senate Democratic candidate in state history, according to her campaign, will make every effort to tie McCain to Trump.

“With the really divisive and frankly racist comments that Trump has made about immigrants, he deserves condemnation,” Kirkpatrick said. “We can’t just look the other way. And yet John McCain has come out over and over and over again, saying that he will support Trump if he is the nominee.”

McCain’s campaign dismissed the recent polls as largely meaningless.

“A poll taken eight months before Election Day may be good fodder for political pundits, but it doesn't mean much in reality,” said communications director Lorna Romero.

She said the McCain campaign is confident that as voters tune into the race and compare McCain’s record with Kirkpatrick’s “forgettable tenure and clear record as a rubber stamp for liberal policies,” they’ll express more support for the longtime incumbent.

McCain had a tough primary in 2010 against former Rep. J.D. Hayworth, who initially appeared to have a good shot at beating him. But McCain, who is one of the best campaigners in the country — as evidenced by his impressive comeback in the 2008 GOP presidential primary — defeated Hayworth by more than 20 points after spending $21 million.

McCain has had a rocky relationship with local conservatives in recent years. The state party censured him for a “disastrous and harmful” liberal record in 2014. Many conservatives still haven’t forgiven him for spearheading the passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act in 2002. His lead role in drafting the Senate’s comprehensive immigration reform bill 2013 didn’t help either.

The Senate primary isn’t until August, which means McCain may be distracted by having to protect his right flank until late in the race, leaving him less time to move to the center to take on Kirkpatrick. The good news for McCain is that his leading primary challenger, former state Sen. Kelli Ward, hasn’t yet made much of a splash. But McCain can’t take an easy primary race for granted either.

“There’s still a little bit of animosity between him and the base,” said Adam Deguire, a GOP strategist and former chief of staff to Rep. Matt Salmon (R-Ariz.). “That’s just lasting from his career in the Senate. There’s a lot of angst right now mostly because the environment of the electorate is just very angry.

“The unfortunate part for Sen. McCain is that it’s not just the past history he has with the base that’s going to affect him but the current mood of the electorate is going to trend away from anyone who is an incumbent, anyone who is a current Washington figure,” he added.

Deguire said the biggest X factor could be Trump and his effect on the electorate. Will he mobilize working-class voters to vote Republican or will he unleash a wave of Hispanics to register and vote Democratic?

“Sen. McCain and Ann Kirkpatrick’s race is going to boil down to who’s atop the ticket. I think you’re going to see this across the board nationally,” he added.

He said Trump is “igniting” people who have never voted in their life.

“In Arizona, you’re seeing a lot of folks in the base who are coming out who have never voted before because of Donald Trump,” he added.

[Tuscaloosa Goldfinch]

I was sitting here thinking what did I miss - I though he had a primary challenger....

[crz]

Where is Hildy? Hildy should know her well since Hildy is now on the Mohave county commision.

[crz]

Dr Ward should hook her tails to Trump. Endorse him, and she wins the primary.

[Lakeshark]

There was a small group during the election, headed by a poster called Rabscuttle. He had a ping list of about thirty or so, and hated McCain so much he lumped her with him. They were out manned during the election, but the group held their bitterness together for a long time, and gained a fairly large following for a long time.

He's gone, but a lot of those on his ping list still remain.

A humorous side note: Several of old ping posse are fairly rabid Trump supporters. One of them had an ongoing debate (NOT!!! More like an insult fest.) with me less than two years ago, insisting she was an open borders amnesty shill in spite of all the evidence to the contrary.

I haven't addressed it with him, but he seems to like her now.

Humor abounds as we switch allegiances here.......:-)

[V K Lee]

Better than good!

[TigersEye]

I was on his ping list but I’ve never said an unkind word about Sarah Palin. I don’t recall that occurring during the election though.

[advertising guy]

THE BITCH IS GOIN DOWN !!!!!!!!!!!!

[stevio]

So either way we’re screwed.

[Grampa Dave]

Donate to McAinal's opponent to retire this ugly American from our Senate.

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[DanZ]

I hope McAmnesty gets Cantorized in the primary. If he doesn’t AZ voters should hold their noses for the Democrat and unseat them in 6 years.

So you are saying that AZ voters should vote in a Dem (senator AND president) this fall But they will - they will vote in the Donald

[Navy Patriot]

He may as well be a Rat, he sides with them often anyway.

Truth.

[batterycommander]

I suppose he could always become the senator from ISIS.

[TigersEye]

McCain Received $100,000 From Firm Of Abramoff Notoriety

McCain's YouTube Problem Just Became a Nightmare McCain debates McCain

McCain: Hillary Would Be Good President Feb. 2005

Not even the Dixie Chicks can say whatever they want (McCain goes to bat for fat mouthed trio)

McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Bill - Euthanasia suicide By Douglas Johnson NRLC Legislative Director

Why NRLC Strongly Opposes McCain-Feingold and Shays-Meehan Bills

More YOUTUBE - McCain On Abortion (UH OH! YouTube Has a Video of Him in 1999)

McCain and Stem Cell Research Round-up McCain: “I Do Support Embryonic Stem-Cell Research…”

Tom Delay On Faux "McCain Has Done More To Hurt The Party" VIDEO

John McCain: "My Conservative Record" YouTube VIDEO

McCain and 'the Constitution'

John McCain, Jack Kemp and Hugo Chavez.

Senators McCain & Lieberman Introduce Anti-gun Monstrosity

Gun Owners of America on McCain's Record.

GUNS AND SCHOOLS: THE POLITICS (McCain tries to grab guns, 1999)

CITIZENS COMMITTEE URGES JOHN McCAIN TO RETIRE FROM UNITED STATES SENATE
Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms (CCRKBA)

John McCain Losing His Cool YouTube video

Vietnam Veterans Against McCain YouTube video

McCain Argues for U.S. Troop Withdrawl from Somalia Mr. Blackhawk Down (YouTube VIDEO)

McCain Group Got Big Cable Donation Breath taking corruption, Senator!

THE PAMPERED POLITICIAN - John McCain Keating 5 and other things. FR Nov. '99

McCain gives nod to Kerry campaign (MAJOR RINO ALERT!) June 2003

MAFIA, EMPRISE, DELAWARE NORTH, DON BOLLES, BRUCE BABBITT, BILL CLINTON...AND JOHN McCAIN?
McCain married into the mob.

Former P.O.W.: "Why I Cannot Support Senator John McCain for President" http://blog.barofintegrity.us/2008/04/21/former-pow-why-i-cannot-support-senator-john-mccain-for-president.aspx

U.S. POW/MIAs Who May Have Survived In Captivity

The Real McCain

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: THE ULTIMATE "RHINESTONE HERO"

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: THE ULTIMATE "RHINESTONE HERO" Part II

John McCain Is No Hero

John McCain: The Manchurian Candidate

JOHN MCCAIN, WARTS AND ALL A Look At The Candidate's Mob Ties By Edward Zehr (includes POW info)

The War Secrets Sen. John McCain Hides Former POW Fights Public Access to POW/MIA Files - Sydney Schanberg

John McCain's Skeleton Closet

A number of articles on McCain. (some the same as above)

McCain Seeks to Change California Primary

John McCain funded by Soros since 2001

John McCain Gets Soros Cash

McCain/Soros by Rabbi Areyh Spero

McCain-Soros Toppled GOP Candidates Nov. 21, 2006

Soros' "Reform" (an article about Soros‘ instrumental hand in McCain/Feingold)

John McCain: George Soros' Useful Idiot?

Through The Weeds; John McCain, George Soros and the Reform Institute

Inside McCain's Reform Institute

McCain’s Reform Institute donor list: (From the WayBackMachine. RI removed it in 2006)

Lining the Pockets of McCain’s Reform Institute

Reform Institute greatfully acknowleges Sen. McCain as past Chairman:
(page has been scrubbed)

McCain planning climate change tour

McCain's Letter (McCain aligns with Global Enviro activists)

The Turning Point on Global Warming (McCain and Lieberman Op-Ed Alert)

Climate bill sets stage for debate (Sens. McCain, Obama, and Lieberman join forces)

McCain: Global warming is fact, must be addressed [hurl alert]

McCain Sides With Leading Dems on Global Warming (NH voter reminder ALERT

EIA's Analysis of the Lieberman-McCain Climate Change Bill Human Events

McCain's Nose-Under-the-Tent Strategy - McCain's "Climate Stewardship Act" (S. 139), co-sponsored with Senator Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.)

Kyoto Through the Back Door? A Debate on the Lieberman –McCain Climate Stewardship Act - Heritage Foundation

Promising Vote on Global Warming - "But Mr. McCain, as we know, does not give up easily. ... He promises to be just as tenacious on this issue."

McCain Is Booed by Labor Activists

Captains of Industry Could Populate McCain Cabinet ( Lieberman Potential Cabinet Member)

McCain Still Disliked by Fiscal Conservatives (Club For Growth)

McCain calls Jeffords' switch lesson for GOP FR May '01

McCain Antics Weary Arizonans in G.O.P. FR June '01

Believe NYT on McCain corruption scandal

McCain Ties to Lobbyists Troublesome - Newsmax Staff

Billboard owner bars ad targeting McCain Viacom refuses anti-Amnesty billboard because it bashes McCain.

How Bill Kristol ditched conservatism. Great Escape (Gave floundering McCain 2000 campaign a direction.)

McCain may leave Republican Party to fight Bush in 2004
His staff set up policy think-tanks and other groups to lay the ideological foundations for another third-party challenge in the Bull Moose style.

McCain Looked into Caucusing with Democrats

John McCain Goes Left for Money

McCain, Obama Make Deal on Financing

Sens. Snowe, Collins to head Maine exploratory committee for McCain

John Kerry: McCain Approached Me About Joining Dem Ticket in 2004

Democrats say McCain nearly abandoned GOP

McCain denies he was close to quitting GOP

Double Talk Express. McCain in his own words. VIDEO

John McCain's Newt Problem (Infidelity to first wife.)

How Cindy McCain was outed for drug addiction(stole drugs from the American Voluntary Medical Team) (McCain used his influence to cover it up.)

McCain and his Chicom Connections: Posts #17 and #18 by Calpernia

TEN REASONS NOT TO SUPPORT MCCAIN (Free Republic thread from 2000)

McCain Blames Bush For Osama's Escape

McCain Rides to Kerry's Rescue: "John Kerry is Not Weak on Defense" (Today Show alert)

The Real McCain Record Obstacles in the way of conservative support.

McCain Is the Amnesty Candidate

John McCain SCREAMS AT 9/11 FSA MEMBERS FOR OPPOSING HIS BILL TO GIVE AMNESTY FOR ILLEGALS

It depends on the meaning of “never” (McCain's Convenient Memory)

UN Double Talk from Straight Talker McCain (Law of the Sea Treaty)

The Conservative Case Against John McCain In 2008

John McCain: Hypocrite by Mark R. Levin

This Man is Not a Republican (re: McCain) (FR thread - Jan. 2000)

Freeper Alert: Sen. KERRY / Communist Vietnamese Killing Off Christains in Central Highlands... (...with Senator McCAIN (R) in complete agreement with him, is because "Engagement" with Communist Vietnam is better for the people of Vietnam in the long run.)

John McCain armed Kosovo Islamic terrorists

John McCain armed the KLA, Politika

Group tied to al-Qaida backs McCain for prez

*************************************************************

McCain says:

"Why don't you shut your political pie hole?"

Stifling the www? Online Freedom of Speech Act (H.R. 1606)

"1606 is needed because federal courts have ordered the Federal Election Commission to regulate "electioneering communications" on the Internet because of the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act (McCain-Feingold). If H.R. 1606 fails to become law, your Web site or blog could be shut down for the 30 days prior to a primary election and the 60 days prior to a general election should you express "electioneering communications."

John McCain, enemy of free speech

Not Child‘s Play [McCain/Schumer bill could effect FR?]

John McCain, you treasonous bastard, I challenge you or any of your traitorous cohorts... (thread by Jim Robinson)

[apocalypto]

Wow! Impressive list. J. McCain also was nasty to families of MIAs.

[TigersEye]

There are a few links in there about that.

[apocalypto]

Hope he loses.

[TigersEye]

Amen to that! FWIW I have two more lists compiled by two other FReepers that are also extensive and there are not many duplicate links among the three.

[apocalypto]

bump

[DoughtyOne]

[ChessExpert]

Definitely have the right forum. You NEVER heard anyone support McCain’s nomination in 2008? Anyway at one point, there McCain and Romney supporters were at it. I remember disparagement of Romney and his sons because they had no military experience.